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[domingo3]

Not shocking in the least.

https://jalopnik.com/harley-davidsons-livewire-has-so-far-been-a-flop-repor-1838852741

[Doug S]

How come almost literally everybody on the planet seemed to predict this, except for Harley management? a.k.a. the people getting paid enormous salaries to figure stuff like this out.

[Richard230]

I agree. The real problem for H-D is that they tried the Tesla business plan.  Come out with a very expensive (and relatively) top-performing vehicle to start and then follow up with more affordable models later.
Unfortunately for H-D, that is not something that the very conservative and cheap motorcycle market in the U.S. was going to embrace.  And H-D should have known that.

What they should have done is to introduce an H-D-brand electric bicycle first and then work their way up the market to more expensive models as their aging customer base started getting the feel for the new technology.  Of course, by then their traditional customers might have died off.
 
And today I am getting grief from the forum that is allowing the message box to extend past the right side of the box and off my computer screen.  Plus, I still have no funny faces to show my displeasure of the apparently broken system.

[NEW2elec]

I still think it will play out like Energica.  Some guys don't remember how much the Ego cost at first.  Over $30k. 
The company got the super excited very wealthy low hanging fruit of customers to get some quick cash.
Same goes with Harley.  By next summer's end I say it will be down to sub $25k and much more appealing.

[DonTom]

I still think it will play out like Energica.  Some guys don't remember how much the Ego cost at first.  Over $30k. 
The company got the super excited very wealthy low hanging fruit of customers to get some quick cash.
Same goes with Harley.  By next summer's end I say it will be down to sub $25k and much more appealing.

I would think around 22K$ would be a reasonable price for the LW.

No true  Level Two charging and slow CCS charging (12 KW max)  are major issues on that bike making it worth less then Energica, IMO.  And no reverse.

-Don-  Auburn, CA

[Crissa]

Technically, Tesla released the Roadster first.  Lightweight and relatively cheap to produce, even though the price tag would be high.

That worked for them because they had no other vehicles and no dealer network to convince, they had to show a product.  Then they produced the S, and slowly upgraded it while prepping for the 3.  The 3 ate badly into their S sales.

HD had to do it the other way and needed to strong-arm dealers into accepting the new bikes.  The high price-point won't work if they can't get it into showrooms, the delays aren't helping, either.  Especially into a market with other electric options, nearly all cheaper, and Zero already is starting to have a healthy used market... So competing on the lower end would've been really hard to begin with.

From the people I know who've ridden it, it's relatively light feeling and a nice bike.

-Crissa

[JaimeC]

I betcha they could sell more Livewires if they used images like this in their ads:
http://tinyurl.com/y663l9qu

It's been years since that movie came out, so people might've forgotten.  Good way to get the attention of the female demographic, too.  Just a thought...

[domingo3]

How come almost literally everybody on the planet seemed to predict this, except for Harley management? a.k.a. the people getting paid enormous salaries to figure stuff like this out.

I have a feeling that they knew it would flop and for some reason didn't care.

I don't have any great theories about why.  Maybe they wanted to be able to claim that they were the first major motorcycle manufacturer with a production electric motorcycle.  Maybe they wanted to be able to report that ICE is king and even their amazing tech product doesn't sell.  Producing the LiveWire seems like a very expensive way to do either of those things.  Anyone else have a better idea?

[DonTom]

I have a feeling that they knew it would flop and for some reason didn't care.

I don't have any great theories about why.  Maybe they wanted to be able to claim that they were the first major motorcycle manufacturer with a production electric motorcycle.  Maybe they wanted to be able to report that ICE is king and even their amazing tech product doesn't sell.  Producing the LiveWire seems like a very expensive way to do either of those things.  Anyone else have a better idea?

IMO, they don't want to get left behind when electrics become more popular. Someday, perhaps electric will outnumber ICE vehicles and those who only have ICE will have a very difficult time getting into the electrics.

It will then be too late to compete. HD would rather not be able to compete early than later <g>.

As we know, many Wal*Marts now have CCS charging. I heard today, next will be more Chevron and Shell gas stations, at least in CA.

The gas stations need to get ready for the change as well. But some need to understand that if there were more charge stations in other states (such as Nevada, away from larger cities) then the EVs would sell a lot better.

-Don-  Auburn, CA

[Richard230]

How come almost literally everybody on the planet seemed to predict this, except for Harley management? a.k.a. the people getting paid enormous salaries to figure stuff like this out.

I have a feeling that they knew it would flop and for some reason didn't care.

I don't have any great theories about why.  Maybe they wanted to be able to claim that they were the first major motorcycle manufacturer with a production electric motorcycle.  Maybe they wanted to be able to report that ICE is king and even their amazing tech product doesn't sell.  Producing the LiveWire seems like a very expensive way to do either of those things.  Anyone else have a better idea?

Maybe H-D wanted another experience like they had selling the Buell brand?  (insert rolling eyes face here)

[Doug S]

So I've been trying very hard to imagine what Harley management was thinking while developing the LiveWire. Here are a few thoughts I've had.

1)     They know they have to do SOMETHING. Their problems are severe to the point where the company is in danger of going under. They've played out all the tricks in their bag.
2)   They're not going to be able to compete with Honda, Yamaha and the like making sportbikes. They've never made sportbikes and aren't known for that.
3)   They're not going to be successful in the cruiser or touring genres, either. They're currently getting their asses kicked in those areas.
4)   Most industry analysts, even EV haters, recognize that the automotive industry is going to be mostly electric at some point. That MAY BE true for motorcycles as well.
5)   Harley has always been able to sell bikes at a premium, even bikes that don't have great performance, reliability or tangible value.
6)   That would seem to show that there's a perceived value in a bike just being a Harley, or perhaps intangibles such as styling, sound, riding position. The cool factor, in other words.
7)   Harley THINKS they haven't lost that perceived value yet, and just need to recapture it in a different direction.
   The ability to turn heads in public is a very important, very underrated factor. "Oh, it's that electric Harley!" Very few people say that about a Zero.
9)   One big advantage they do have is a mature dealer network. You can always find one, and if they can get CCS in most of them, that gives them a solid charging infrastructure, in addition to never being too far away from being able to get service.
10)   CCS is very cool, especially to those of us familiar with EVs. It's a big advantage, to the point where I'd very seriously consider an Energica for my next bike.

So to sum up, price and mediocre performance have never been big problems for Harley. Their biggest assets have always been a good dealer network so you're never too far from service and/or parts, and the intangibles.

I'm still very, very skeptical, but starting to see at least some sort of sensical business case for this bike. I think maybe the most important thing is item number 8 -- when a few of them get out there, are people going to start recognizing them and lusting after them?

[Crissa]

I agree with Doug's points.

I think Harley knows they're caught in a tough spot - and being double-crossed by the trade deals hasn't helped.

They need to aim for the future.  And they're taking advantage of their name cachet to try to get in on the ground floor.

-Crissa

[MikeL]

From the article.

Younger would-be buyers, meanwhile, are put off by the LiveWire’s high cost. The LiveWire starts at $29,799, almost enough for a Chevy Volt ($33,520) or over $10,000 more than the competing Zero SR/F electric bike.

This is not surprising. I'm not willing to cough up $30k for a motorcycle platform that I haven't even had a chance to ride. Older riders have disposable incomes and are more willing to take that risk. Once more people ride them you might see a spike in sales if reviews are good.

Just because a lot of us wouldn't/can't afford a LiveWire doesn't mean a large group of people also can't afford them. Far more rich people in this world than you would believe.

Another thing holding LiveWire back: Its range, which is a decent 146 miles in the city but plummets on the highway, giving it 96 miles combined range.

Almost all electric motorcycles have crap range right now. And before people start quoting Zero SR/F numbers, their city range is 161 (vs. 146 LW) and combined range of 109 (vs 96 LW). These differences are not massive and that is testing ranges.. not actual real world ranges. Which we all know are far from factory promises.

The dealers Reuters spoke with haven’t been impressed.

That's because the LiveWire isn't a friend to dealers. Harley dealers make their money on servicing their motorcycles and selling you parts. The LiveWire will most likely not have NEARLY the same amount of upgrades as their standard motorcycles and services are far fewer on electric.

Dealers are not excited to get the LiveWire. When I've asked them about it.. very rarely are they excited to talk to you about the motorcycle and almost want to change the subject. Most Harley employees are Harley riders, which tend to be anti-new tech.

Harley wouldn’t say how many pre-orders it received for the LiveWire, but an analyst estimated they would sell between 400 and 1,600 LiveWires its first year. If true, that would be less than 1 percent of the total number of motorcycles it sells a year, which last year was 228,051.

Well, in general, Harley moves a lot of units so this isn't surprising. A new platform with a high MSRP. Did anyone think it was going to show up and gobble up 20% of their sales or something?

Harley has openly said they don't plan to move a lot of LiveWire units. It's a testing bed for future motorcycles. We should all be happy they are even entering this market.

[Fran K]

So I've been trying very hard to imagine what Harley management was thinking while developing the LiveWire. Here are a few thoughts I've had.

How about preparing for shall we call it trade wars.  Our (USA) export will be to a large degree agricultural product.  The Europeans will figure some way to not like some aspect be it gmo, our chemical use or documentation that such food source is chemical free.  Motorcycles and wines seem to be among the first things to get tarrifs or some cost multiplier added.  It was European motorcycles under 500cc the trail rider groups were all excited about a year or few back.  Chances are the electric ones will be exempt.

Is the term developing the live wire misleading?  Didn't they basically buy the design perhaps 4 years ago?

As for the article in post 1 How can it be a flop the author won't say how many they intend on making and if they will have to stop short of that.  I suspect they did not really try too hard to find a supplier of components and determine what sort of quantities are expected to be ordered.

The target demographic often discussed never mentions needing a piece of real estate with a garage to put the thing in.

[ccooper]

Kodak invented the digital camera... and look what happened to them!

I'm sure Harley have it covered... but I suspect Harley just needs to get the figures right (on the price of their Livewire); to make sure supply and demand mean they get maximum return on the ongoing cost of production (rather than including any compensation for initial development).   This will eventually lead to them getting back their initial investment on the development of the Livewire.

It's got to be hard to price appropriately when the technology and acceptance of electric motorbikes is still only in its infancy!

It's also got to be easy to over-estimate demand initially!   We have a habit of saying one thing but not always acting when it's our own money that's at stake.   I'm just hoping that Harley have plenty of buffer—in the average cost of producing a single bike—to bring the price down to one that will drive demand.   I also really hope they have the $$$ to increase the production to a level that continues brings the average cost per bike down, and that this DOES lead to the increased demand needed.

Ah, the economics of it all!!!