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Author Topic: Wild Conjecture  (Read 3524 times)

Joe Berk

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Wild Conjecture
« on: August 04, 2018, 05:30:31 AM »

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Richard230

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2018, 06:31:28 AM »

Joe Gresh weighs in on the Harley Livewire here:

http://exhaustnotes.us/blog/index.php/2018/08/03/wild-conjecture-the-harley-davidson-livewire/
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When it comes to the H-D Live Wire, I wouldn't want to make any wild conjectures, other than that it will be very expensive and that their dealers will hide the bike in their laundry closet so that no one will see it.  ::)
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 08:16:01 PM by Richard230 »
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

Fran K

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2018, 05:24:34 PM »

The guy acts like he is old but relates to a fuel gauge instead of taking the cap off the tank and looking inside or using the resetable trip odometer?

I will conjecture that the big rig with license plate from Wisconsin will show up at the local Harley dealership with lots of demo bikes and they will have demo day or demo days.  Harley was doing this pretty regularly a number of years ago.
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Richard230

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2018, 08:23:55 PM »

The guy acts like he is old but relates to a fuel gauge instead of taking the cap off the tank and looking inside or using the resetable trip odometer?

I will conjecture that the big rig with license plate from Wisconsin will show up at the local Harley dealership with lots of demo bikes and they will have demo day or demo days.  Harley was doing this pretty regularly a number of years ago.

Everyone seems to love to ride electric motorcycles, but not everyone seems to wants to buy one.   ???  Plus, in the case of H-D dealerships, they make a lot of money servicing Hogs and selling bling for them, neither of which is likely to generate much income for the dealers if they sell Live Wires - or their offspring. So I still think that their sales staff might show their customers an electric motorcycle (if they are asked to do so) but then will try to steer them to a real man's bike, with a big V-twin IC engine, that they can customize with lots of chrome and that will make enough noise to get them noticed by everyone around them. Maybe things will change some time in the future, but I doubt I will be around to see it.  ???

I might add that the general public shows a lot more interest in my Royal Enfield than they do in my Zero.  Plus, the BMW C-Evolution scooter and the Energica electric motorcycles are not exactly flying out of my BMW dealer's showroom, although he has been selling both bikes for the past 10 months. They still have 2017 models on the showroom floor.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 08:28:02 PM by Richard230 »
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

Joe Berk

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2018, 06:38:03 AM »

I agree with everything you say.  I think a big part of the current issue is price.  I've done some testing recently on the new CSC City Slicker and you can see the results here:  http://exhaustnotes.us/blog/index.php/2018/08/04/phase-iii-climbing-mt-baldy/   That bike doesn't have the range or the top end of the other ebikes, but wow, the price...


« Last Edit: August 05, 2018, 07:34:31 PM by Joe Berk »
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Richard230

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2018, 07:14:20 PM »

Nice looking bike, although I don't care for the current trend in raised rear ends and am more partial to flat, instead of scooped-out, seats as someone who has to sit on them.

I was visiting my BMW dealer, who also sells Energica electric motorcycles. I asked him how sales were going with the brand.  He told me that they were steady, but they were only averaging about 1 sale a month.  :o That doesn't sound enough to keep any dealership's doors open unless they have other IC brands to keep them afloat and to support an EV franchise. However, if the cost of an electric motorcycle can be brought into a price range comparable to Japanese 250cc models, they should start selling in more numbers than they do now, especially in urban areas and to new riders who don't need to take long trips or spend a lot of time at freeway speeds.
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

Joe Berk

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2018, 08:03:26 PM »

Again, complete agreement here.   I also think most IC bike dealers couldn't survive on just the sales of their IC bikes; they also need the service, parts, accessories, etc., associated with the IC bikes to keep the doors open.  I was recently at a dealer who was dropping his line of electric scooters.  The reason?  No aftermarket service, other than the occasional sale of a tire.   The bikes required so little maintenance he couldn't justify continuing to sell them.

We've seen several IC bike dealerships close in the last year; it's been a rough year in the motorcycle business.  The megastores are doing okay, but that's because of their ATV and watercraft business.   The IC bike industry is not in a good place today.  I think it's because the bikes are too expensive, demographics are changing, and many dealers are suffering from self-inflicted "freight and setup" pricing wounds.

Your comment about getting ebikes down to the price level of a Japanese 250 is interesting.  The CSC ebike sells for $2495.  I used to write the blog for CSC and I organized their 250cc Baja rides, so I'm very familiar with the company.
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Richard230

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2018, 03:30:46 AM »

One big problem is that young people don't seem as interested in riding motorcycles (or getting outside their home, for that matter) as they used to.  The internet and social media is such an attraction that many youngsters are not even interested in getting a driver's license, much less learning how to ride a motorcycle. My daughter has tried to get her two college-age daughters to obtain a drivers license, but they are just not interested. So she either drives them around or they take a bus to get where they want to go.

However, in congested urban areas, once needing to go to a job, I think more people are riding motorcycles so that they can pass stalled traffic by splitting lanes, which you can do in California.  But splitting lanes on a freeway during commute hours can be very risky and requires a lot of experience and understanding of traffic movements. Plus, during winter months you are doing this in the dark and that would really scare me.  I have been riding for 56 years and I won't split lanes unless traffic is stopped and vehicles can't quickly switch lanes in front of you as you pass by. But a lot of people are so frustrated by the amount of time it takes to get anywhere, such as their to their jobs or to school on time, that they are willing to take risks that they might not otherwise do.

I have a lady friend (a little older than me) who lives in Vermont and rides all over the country and even she will pass stopped traffic by riding along the shoulder when the temperature is very hot and there is no movement in sight. That is a sure ticket in most states, but they have to catch you first.   ;)

Anyway, I agree that selling electric motorcycles is going to require a different business model for future dealerships. Something like Hollywood Electrics has managed, but they have a great location and the owner has the skills, education and knowledge to keep the business open. Those are business qualities that are very few and far between in the industry. H-D dealers won't have any problems, because their legacy IC products and life style sales will keep the doors open. Electric motorcycles will just be a little icing on the cake - provided that they give the technology a chance and don't badmouth it to their customers.
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

ultratoad

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2018, 09:44:53 AM »

Totally agree with your assessment....  What made be laugh though....  I had to force my son to get his drivers license before he started at Cal Poly !!!!  There was no way in H#$% that I was going to be his designated driver in San Jose !!!!  It all worked out in the end, BUT these kids are so VERY different today.... 
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Joe Berk

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2018, 06:29:01 AM »

We leave in small world.  I recently retired from the College of Engineering at Cal Poly Pomona (not SLO). 
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Richard230

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2018, 06:40:26 AM »

We leave in small world.  I recently retired from the College of Engineering at Cal Poly Pomona (not SLO).

My youngest granddaughter was accepted to Cal Poly, SLO. But she decided not to go to the college because when she went to the "open house" event, she was prevented from registering for a couple of hours by protesters who blocked her (and everyone else's) access to the registration building due to some sort of dispute with the college regarding racial issues by some students who posted nasty comments about black and Hispanic people on the internet that they felt was not addressed adequately. She eventually got past them, but it left a bad taste in her mouth and she decided to become a Slug at UC Santa Cruz.
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

ultratoad

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2018, 09:13:07 PM »

Good thing she wasn't considering Berkeley !!!!  AND that is yet another can of worms....
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Joe Berk

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2018, 06:48:28 PM »

So, back on topic...a comparison of the City Slicker and the Zero SR...

http://exhaustnotes.us/blog/index.php/2018/08/09/an-ebike-comparo-zero-and-slick/
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Fran K

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Re: Wild Conjecture
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2018, 06:59:27 PM »

So, back on topic...

You are off topic commonly called derailing.  This is the Harley live wire section.
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