Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[MostlyBonkers]

I've just posted a reply to a question about oil changes on my local bike club's forum. Does anyone else think we'll see higher depreciation on ICE vehicles over the next few years?

Here's the post:

The only maintenance on the drivetrain is the belt. No serviceable parts on the motor whatsoever. It's pretty amazing when you think about it. Off the top of my head, there's none of this stuff that needs attention or replacement:

Spark plugs
Ignition coil
Water
Oil
Oil filter
Coolant to flush
Air filter
Exhaust
Valves
Clutch
Cam chain
Carburetor or throttle bodies.
Distributor (older bikes)

Also, there's none of this stuff that can fail:

Oil pump
Water pump
Clutch
Gears & associated levers and cables/hydraulics
Cam chain
Lots more gaskets and oil/Water seals
Pistons
Crankshaft and bearings
Camshaft and bearings
Cylinder head

The only moving part in the AC motor is the rotor. Apart from the bearings that hold it in place, it doesn't touch anything internally. No brushes like a DC motor. It should outlast about three bikers' lifetimes on average, I'd say.

There are other components that can and do fail with an electric powertrain; on-board charger (these are notorious), battery management system (quite a few issues reported on the forum but much better in the last 2-3 years), controller (supplies power to and from the batteries to and from the motor. I haven't seen one issue reported on the forum with these). Last but not least there's the battery that contains over 100 cells. They are pretty solid now though and come with a five year warranty.

All the electronics, while sophisticated, are solid state and have the potential to be as reliable as the very complicated electronics in modern cars.

These days I think of internal combustion engines in the same way as stream engines: Mechanical marvels that served us well but are unnecessarily complex, extremely inefficient and have had their day. There's lots to love about them and I'm no hater, but for general purpose use (commuting, pizza delivery), the writing is on the wall.

The transition may take a decade or so, but there is no doubt in my mind that it will happen. In as little as five years time I'm certain the cost of electric vehicles will be lower than an equivalent ICE vehicle. That's on the forecourt.

Depreciation on ICE vehicles will go up over the next few years. The total cost of ownership is already cheaper with EV's, as long as you're willing to keep the vehicle a few years.

I've gone off topic a bit, but I hope it answers your question Ron. :-)

***********

Will the big oil bubble burst soon? With the success that Tesla has seen and all the publicity they're getting, everyone is now aware of electric vehicles and their potential. The word of mouth is huge at the moment. Now that the general public are beginning to cotton on to the idea I have the feeling we are racing towards the tipping point. Perhaps not with bikes, but certainly with cars.

I find it quite exciting that the masses might suddenly decide they're better off with an EV. When people start to realise that buying a new ICE car is not a sensible choice financially, they'll drop them like lead bricks. That's good news for people who do low mileage and are happy to buy second hand. There will be a glut of cheap ICE cars around for years until they all slowly make their way to the scrap heap.

[Richard230]

MostlyBonkers, I think you are giving the general public too much credit for making logical decisions (are you watching our presidential election this year?). The EV market may very well mature as you describe, but I figure that I will be long gone by then, while global warming will still be around.  We can only hope for the best, I guess.

BTW, I spent a portion of my week servicing my Yamaha FZ1.  Gee, I hate the smell of used oil and antifreeze on my clothes.  At least I didn't blow myself up. 

[MostlyBonkers]

Haha, you're right Richard. Perhaps we can hope that enough celebrities go electric and the rest follow like sheep. I'm contemplating getting a Fazer again as a second bike. That's if I can't stretch to a Diginow charger when they hit the market.

If you aren't still around to see everyone riding electric cars and bikes, at least you'll know you encouraged a few along the way.

[ultrarnr]

It may well happen but it will be nothing compared to the current depreciation on electric motorcycles right now. Trading in a Zero is not kind to your wallet.

[MostlyBonkers]

Good point ultrarnr. I was thinking about how Teslas seem to be holding their value. The bike industry is, as always, different.

On reflection, I should have just talked about ICE cars. I've confused the argument.

[benswing]

Good point ultrarnr. I was thinking about how Teslas seem to be holding their value. The bike industry is, as always, different.

Teslas are holding their value because Tesla motors is buying back cars to control supply.  It's a smart move with the young EV market.

[Doug S]

Teslas are holding their value because Tesla motors is buying back cars to control supply.

Teslas are also holding their value well because there's still a wait list to buy. People decide they want a(nother) Tesla and they don't want to wait; the only alternative is the used market. For a while, used Teslas were bringing more than new-car prices.

[Semper Why]

The same thing happened with the Prius market back in the beginning. We're still in the early stages. With oil at under $50/barrel, the incentives to move to all-electric just aren't as strong as they used to be. Will electric vehicles become the common means of transportation? Probably. But "soon" is a value judgement. Next year? No. Next 5 years? Probably not. Next 10 years? I wouldn't bet either way.

The ICE is a fairly mature technology, with over 100 years of development, refinement and infrastructure behind it. The depreciation rates on such technology is unlikely to suddenly shift in a couple of years. The advantages of electric are many, but so are the advantages of the ICE. Without a sudden shift to render the ICE unpalatable, it will gradually decline instead of drop off suddenly.

[MrDude_1]

As someone who worked in a vintage bike and vespa shop.... this is laughable.

You can take all the ICE junk bikes, EFI or carbed and throw them in a corner of a yard.  wait 30+ years..40+years...  and in less than a day you can have them running again.


Meanwhile look at our poor Zeros. If it wasnt for the kindness of the enthusiasts at Zero motorcycles, the non-current-gen bikes would be useless.  Parts upgrade and change every year. The old ones become obsolete electronics. They're Betamax.   no...  Electric cars and bikes have HIGHER depreciation rates over time, and will continue to do so.  Those that do not believe this are the ones with bikes listed on ebay for over a year now...

[Chocula]

I sold my older (turns 30 this year) bike last summer in large part because I wanted to ride more and wrench less.  Many parts are no longer available and I had to find used parts on Ebay.  The fuel petcock for this bike was unique and nearly impossible to find a working one without buying the whole bike.  I had to drill out the rivets in mine and replace the gasket with one made out of an old bicycle inner tube.

Yes you can get old ICE bikes running, but you will frequently be substituting parts and sometimes fabricating parts or mounting brackets.   

Electric bikes are relatively simple, at least to me, compared to ICE bikes.  At the moment, there is not a wide selection of components readily available yet, but I suspect in 30 years I will be able to find a dash, battery, charger, or motor controller that that I can make work on my Empulse.  I suspect I could get a 30 year old IBM PC working from parts available on Ebay.  One of my electric kilns is over 50 years old and I can still find new switches and elements that fit.  Batteries will still store and release electricity, though you may have to replace or reprogram the charger to accommodate a different chemistry.

Electric bikes today are very low volume and in the future, replacement parts will likely require some modifications to make work.  Once their sales volume increases, I believe they will be about as hard to restore as vintage bikes are today.

[johnnywheels]

I sold my older (turns 30 this year) bike last summer in large part because I wanted to ride more and wrench less.  Many parts are no longer available and I had to find used parts on Ebay.  The fuel petcock for this bike was unique and nearly impossible to find a working one without buying the whole bike.  I had to drill out the rivets in mine and replace the gasket with one made out of an old bicycle inner tube.

Yes you can get old ICE bikes running, but you will frequently be substituting parts and sometimes fabricating parts or mounting brackets.   

Electric bikes are relatively simple, at least to me, compared to ICE bikes.  At the moment, there is not a wide selection of components readily available yet, but I suspect in 30 years I will be able to find a dash, battery, charger, or motor controller that that I can make work on my Empulse.  I suspect I could get a 30 year old IBM PC working from parts available on Ebay.  One of my electric kilns is over 50 years old and I can still find new switches and elements that fit.  Batteries will still store and release electricity, though you may have to replace or reprogram the charger to accommodate a different chemistry.

Electric bikes today are very low volume and in the future, replacement parts will likely require some modifications to make work.  Once their sales volume increases, I believe they will be about as hard to restore as vintage bikes are today.

Sorry to hear you sold a bike that's been with you for so long, but happy to hear its a lot less wrenching for you!

Curious to see where e-biking goes in the future to compare today's "vintage" bikes.

Happy riding!