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[Richard230]

The UK is proposing to prohibit the sale of new gas-powered motorcycles in 2035 as part of their zero-emission vehicle program. Will other countries follow? Here is the story:  https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/petrol-ban-motorbikes/

Will the major ICE motorcycle companies be ready for this change or will they stick to selling replacement parts for their legacy ICE bikes in the UK and market their new ICE bikes in countries that don't care about global warming?  Or will they start selling rebranded Chinese electric motorcycles to stay in the market without having to spend money on the new technology?    Time will tell. 

[flynnstig82r]

By 2035 (13 years from now), a ban might not even be necessary. At the rate the technology and infrastructure are advancing and costs are coming down, it’s possible that no one in their right mind would buy an ICE bike anyway. Just think about what was available 13 years ago in 2009 and how far we’ve come! Even if battery capacity only expands 4% / year, that would give us ~70% better density, so >200 mi highway range for a bike like the Experia with no improvements to mechanical, rolling, or aerodynamic efficiency. 15 min recharges to 80% are already possible with today’s cells, and just need liquid cooling to be realized, so in 13 years the charging could be so fast and convenient that gas has no practical advantage. Cells have been getting cheaper by about 7% / year IIRC, so compounded over 13 years, the purchase price advantage of ICE bikes will also evaporate, except perhaps in the segment for capable bargains like the MT-07 and SV-650, but even there the 5-year cost of ownership would by sky high compared to electric.

Motorcycles may be about 7 years behind cars on the adoption curve, but once no one is buying ICE cars in developed countries, gas stations will start going out of business. By 2035, there might be so few stations left that it doesn’t make sense to own an ICE bike, even if e-bikes with DCFC and powerful motors haven’t quite hit the sub-$10k segment.

[princec]

Every single petrol station will become a charging station pretty much. They won't go out of business, they'll likely pivot. They've got the land, and some space, and a lot of them now have cafes in them already, which is likely what they'll make most of their profit on. They barely need to make any from the electricity what with the price of coffee being so outrageously high.

Cas

[DonTom]

By 2035 (13 years from now),

Hopefully, by then, we have a few people who can fix the broken CCS  charge  stations.   Here in NV the norm for CCS outside the larger cities is for them to not work and perhaps NEVER be repaired. It's getting worse instead of better. A couple of years ago, I could go as far as I want on my Energica. Now too many charge stations are broken to get far.  Such as the only CCS in Fallon, Silver Springs, Hawthone and other important locations--all broken for months.


-Don-  Reno, NV

[flynnstig82r]

Every single petrol station will become a charging station pretty much. They won't go out of business, they'll likely pivot. They've got the land, and some space, and a lot of them now have cafes in them already, which is likely what they'll make most of their profit on. They barely need to make any from the electricity what with the price of coffee being so outrageously high.

Cas

In the UK, I think gas stations are located closer to amenities like groceries, right? Here in the US, I don’t expect to see many charging stations located at gas stations. They’re nasty, ugly places where no one wants to be, and even when there are places to shop and get coffee in the same complex, it’s not safe, pleasant, or convenient to walk there. I think most of the ones here will just shut down and sit vacant as an eyesore for decades because no one wants to do the hazardous materials cleanup required to use the site for anything else. This is bad aesthetically for the community and also in terms of equity because gas stations are one of the few remaining businesses mostly owned and operated by small business-people with high rates of minority ownership.

I’m not cheering on the collapse of gas stations, just stating what I think is going to happen. I don’t think that charging stations will be located there just like gas stations weren’t located at horse troughs. Different technologies mean different dynamics that drive the site location. Charging stations don’t require a large plot of land, don’t require hazardous underground tanks that other businesses need distance from, and their users want to be able to do something else while they charge.

[Richard230]

By 2035 (13 years from now), a ban might not even be necessary. At the rate the technology and infrastructure are advancing and costs are coming down, it’s possible that no one in their right mind would buy an ICE bike anyway. Just think about what was available 13 years ago in 2009 and how far we’ve come! Even if battery capacity only expands 4% / year, that would give us ~70% better density, so >200 mi highway range for a bike like the Experia with no improvements to mechanical, rolling, or aerodynamic efficiency. 15 min recharges to 80% are already possible with today’s cells, and just need liquid cooling to be realized, so in 13 years the charging could be so fast and convenient that gas has no practical advantage. Cells have been getting cheaper by about 7% / year IIRC, so compounded over 13 years, the purchase price advantage of ICE bikes will also evaporate, except perhaps in the segment for capable bargains like the MT-07 and SV-650, but even there the 5-year cost of ownership would by sky high compared to electric.

Motorcycles may be about 7 years behind cars on the adoption curve, but once no one is buying ICE cars in developed countries, gas stations will start going out of business. By 2035, there might be so few stations left that it doesn’t make sense to own an ICE bike, even if e-bikes with DCFC and powerful motors haven’t quite hit the sub-$10k segment.

Are you saying that ICE motorcycle enthusiasts are in their right minds?  I doubt it.   

[DonTom]

Here in the US, I don’t expect to see many charging stations located at gas stations.

There are countless CCS charge stations at gas stations, especially Chevron, Shell & U-76.  Just not in all areas-yet.


On the way here from Reno, MOST of the charge stations are at gas stations. Such as in Kingvale, Soda Springs, Nyack Road, Cisco Grove. See Plugshare on I-80 West of Truckee.


If you want to see them for yourself, let's go for a ride up that way!  Much of it can be away from I-80 until we get to the places.


-Don-  Auburn, CA

[flynnstig82r]

There are countless CCS charge stations at gas stations, especially Chevron, Shell & U-76.  Just not in all areas-yet.


On the way here from Reno, MOST of the charge stations are at gas stations. Such as in Kingvale, Soda Springs, Nyack Road, Cisco Grove. See Plugshare on I-80 West of Truckee.


If you want to see them for yourself, let's go for a ride up that way!  Much of it can be away from I-80 until we get to the places.


-Don-  Auburn, CA

Those are pretty sparsely-populated areas, though, right? Around here there are only a few older CCS chargers at gas stations. I don't think most of the new chargers installed in heavily-populated areas are going to be at gas stations. Who wants to spend longer than a few minutes at one of those places?

[DonTom]

Those are pretty sparsely-populated areas, though, right? Around here there are only a few older CCS chargers at gas stations. I don't think most of the new chargers installed in heavily-populated areas are going to be at gas stations. Who wants to spend longer than a few minutes at one of those places?

Of course there are many gas stations that don't have the room for such. Even the gas station in Georgetown, which is a bit away from the more populated areas.


And there are some gas stations in Sacramento that have newer chargers. At least I think they are new.  See my check-in here at the 7-11 at the Shell Gas Station. Notice it is Shell-Recharge, which used to be Greenlots before Shell bought them out.


But it seems to me that Shell did the same as Wal*Mart. Mainly only put the chargers where there are many others and not where they are most needed.


But there are a couple of great exceptions, such as Brigeport (at the Shell gas station) and at the Fernley, NV, Wal*Mart.  Those were two locations that were very needed.


-Don-  Auburn, CA

[Richard230]

I have yet to see a charge station at any of the gas stations I have visited in the San Francisco Bay Area. (When will Costco install L3 charging facilities next to their 40 gas pumps?) A new Shell station was reconstructed a few miles from me with 12 fuel pumps on two islands and a new convenience store, but no electric charging facility. There has been a two-station L2 facility that has been around for years hidden away behind a Safeway store's back parking lot where their trucks unload near the beach three miles from my home. I have yet to see any EV parked at that facility. No doubt you would need a GPS to find it. 

BTW, my neighborhood is packed with Model 3 Teslas that tend to be parked in their home's driveway apron with a power cord running into the garage whenever the car is not being driven. So I guess no need for charging stations around here. 

[DonTom]

I have yet to see a charge station at any of the gas stations I have visited in the San Francisco Bay Area. (When will Costco install L3 charging facilities next to their 40 gas pumps?) A new Shell station was reconstructed a few miles from me with 12 fuel pumps on two islands and a new convenience store, but no electric charging facility. There has been a two-station L2 facility that has been around for years hidden away behind a Safeway store's back parking lot where their trucks unload near the beach three miles from my home. I have yet to see any EV parked at that facility. No doubt you would need a GPS to find it. 

BTW, my neighborhood is packed with Model 3 Teslas that tend to be parked in their home's driveway apron with a power cord running into the garage whenever the car is not being driven. So I guess no need for charging stations around here. 

By far, most EVs only charge at home.  I have now charged my 2018 Tesla three times on the road. The 3rd time was just last week at Lake Topaz, NV. But that was just so I could check-in and put my car on Plugshare. I went to Bridgeport for lunch, I really could have done the round trip on my home charge from Reno. It's only 117 miles one way.

I see you never made it to Millbrae where you could see the charge station at the Chevron gas station.

-Don- Auburn, CA

[DonTom]

There has been a two-station L2 facility that has been around for years hidden away behind a Safeway store's back parking lot where their trucks unload near the beach three miles from my home. I have yet to see any EV parked at that facility. No doubt you would need a GPS to find it. 

And that is how it works in many EVs. Such as in my Tesla. I turn on the mic and say "take me to Supercharger".  If I am near Truckee, it will take me to behind the Safeway. I bet most of those who have done their grocery shopping there for years have no clue they even exist.


BTW, at least in a Tesla, ALWAYS use the navigation system for Superchargers even if you know where they exist. And try to do such from more than five miles away. When you get a few miles from the supercharger, the screen will say "preparing battery for supercharging". The charge will then be faster as it will allow a higher current rating by cooling off the battery. There is battery coolant in Teslas.


-Don-  Auburn, CA

[Richard230]

I have yet to see a charge station at any of the gas stations I have visited in the San Francisco Bay Area. (When will Costco install L3 charging facilities next to their 40 gas pumps?) A new Shell station was reconstructed a few miles from me with 12 fuel pumps on two islands and a new convenience store, but no electric charging facility. There has been a two-station L2 facility that has been around for years hidden away behind a Safeway store's back parking lot where their trucks unload near the beach three miles from my home. I have yet to see any EV parked at that facility. No doubt you would need a GPS to find it. 

BTW, my neighborhood is packed with Model 3 Teslas that tend to be parked in their home's driveway apron with a power cord running into the garage whenever the car is not being driven. So I guess no need for charging stations around here. 

By far, most EVs only charge at home.  I have now charged my 2018 Tesla three times on the road. The 3rd time was just last week at Lake Topaz, NV. But that was just so I could check-in and put my car on Plugshare. I went to Bridgeport for lunch, I really could have done the round trip on my home charge from Reno. It's only 117 miles one way.

I see you never made it to Millbrae where you could see the charge station at the Chevron gas station.

-Don- Auburn, CA

No I never did visit the Millbrae gas station. There is nothing at that station that I want, besides many of the roads leading to that location are under construction and traffic in the area tends to be a mess. I prefer to stay away from 101 and stick to Skyline Blvd, where traffic is less and it is much more scenic.

[DonTom]

No I never did visit the Millbrae gas station. There is nothing at that station that I want, besides many of the roads leading to that location are under construction and traffic in the area tends to be a mess. I prefer to stay away from 101 and stick to Skyline Blvd, where traffic is less and it is much more scenic.

Well, buy yourself an Enegica and find a reason to charge up there.   And see what the Energica shop looks like that moved to SSF. A mile or so from where I used to live.


As I am sure you know, you can get to Millbrae easily from Skyline and  I-280. In fact, that is the best way, about nine miles from you. I too would stay away from 101 as much as possible.


-Don-  Auburn, CA