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[Alan Stewart]

https://electrek.co/2018/01/30/harley-davidson-electric-motorcycle/

[MrDude_1]

Call me skeptical, but I wont believe it until actual bikes are in dealerships... And even then I am willing to be they will be handicapped by price and range.

If they somehow manage to make a nice bike with decent range and are priced the same or lower then Zero... then sure, they have a winner and I would even consider it... but if its like what I expect from Harley, it will cost too much, offer too little, if its even offered at all. its likely the will "pull the plug" on the whole thing when their engineering comes up with a 60mi range bike because of "style constraints" or some other BS. (see Vrod of examples of how they handicap engineering)

And if all that happens.. I am willing to bet any amount of cash that their dealerships will sell them about as well as they sold Buells.. with 90% of them shitting all over the bikes rather than even trying to sell them.

[Richard230]

Here is another very detailed article regarding H-D's finances and future plans: 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/harley-davidson-announces-fourth-quarter-full-year-2017-results-300589869.html

I am not putting any money on the "Livewire" being very popular with the "Faithful" or that it will make money for H-D. I figure that it will take the Japanese companies to really expand the electric motorcycle market. Until you see them jump in, I don't think the market will be large enough for anyone to make much money selling them. The Livewire might get H-D brownie points in CA and maybe they can use them to make money on the "cap and trade" market, but I don't think it is going to be a big seller. So far electric motorcycle sales in the U.S. don't appear to be all that robust and I doubt that will change even with a Harley in the mix.

Plus, based upon how their dealers received the Buell, the Livewire is going to spend its time on display in the womens' rest room. 

[NEW2elec]

I wonder if Indian is coming out with one as promised by Polaris?  HD hates them so much

[Richard230]

Here is what Polaris has in mind:  https://www.bikebandit.com/blog/post/hybrid-powerplants-may-be-coming-to-utvs

They are sticking with what sells and makes them money. 

[wavelet]

I wonder if Indian is coming out with one as promised by Polaris?  HD hates them so much

Huh? Polaris completely pulled out of electric bikes, abandoning Brammo. They then said they'd use the Brammo engineering team to electrify their other product lines -- crickets.
Last Oct. it was announced that Cummins (the Diesel truck drivetrain vendor) bought Brammo to design BEV truck drivetrains.

No bikes anywhere, nothing to see.

[NEW2elec]

Yeah I forget what the story was on Brammo, I think when Polaris bought the motorcycle part of the company there was still an electric drive train component that was still "Brammo".
Polaris' claim was to put an electric motorcycle back out in 4-5 years when range and charging was up to their so called standards.
I'm not holding my breath.
HD has not done anything for years now after they did a pretty good PR push for the Livewire.
Pure guess work as to what got them up off their butts with my Polaris comment. Besides slowing sales and scrambling to try something different.

[calamarichris]

I'm surprised Zero has held the lead so long. Harley's traditional target-market and recent sales decline (which could be seen by some as a failure of their recent attempt to produce sensible bikes) makes it unlikely they'll be the one to dethrone Zero.
Honda's got the big bucks and the flexibility: I predict Honda will be the next Zero. I'm still scratching my head they've waited this long and have been farting around with the self-balancing motorcycle concept silliness which is an answer to a question no one asked.
Don't get me wrong, I love my Zero and am so proud they made it work in California; but there are slumbering giants about to wake.

[wavelet]

I'm surprised Zero has held the lead so long. Harley's traditional target-market and recent sales decline (which could be seen by some as a failure of their recent attempt to produce sensible bikes) makes it unlikely they'll be the one to dethrone Zero.
Honda's got the big bucks and the flexibility: I predict Honda will be the next Zero. I'm still scratching my head they've waited this long and have been farting around with the self-balancing motorcycle concept silliness which is an answer to a question no one asked.
Don't get me wrong, I love my Zero and am so proud they made it work in California; but there are slumbering giants about to wake.

I hope you're right, but I don't think we're going to see any actual bikes (as opposed to commuting-oriented scooters/mopeds)  from any of the main vendors for at least 3-4 years. Problem is range. If any of the bike makers were actually going to do this anytime soon, they'd have demonstrated prototypes by now, or at least concepts for real-range bikes. AFAIK, None have done this or even announced plans for it (and futzing around with self-balancing is just PR for bike shows.)
The exception is pure dirt bikes:
They don't need much range, and don't travel fast so aerodynamics isn't an issue, and BEV drivetrains are ideally suited to provided the desired high torque -- without ever needing to cut power to the wheels by shifting.

[calamarichris]

If they take 3-4 years, Zero might just have the stones to compete with them by then. That would really be a feat. (Of Zero's, I mean.)
I can't believe that Honda or another of The Big Four couldn't just copy Zeros and sell them with their own styling. If they wait too long to start taking a bite out of Zero, it might be The Big Five by then.
I'm perfectly okay with this, but I'd be astounded if they sat around for another 3-4 years. Maybe the Big Four have become just as stagnant and entrenched in their thinking as Harley is?

[wavelet]

If they take 3-4 years, Zero might just have the stones to compete with them by then. That would really be a feat. (Of Zero's, I mean.)
I can't believe that Honda or another of The Big Four couldn't just copy Zeros and sell them with their own styling. If they wait too long to start taking a bite out of Zero, it might be The Big Five by then.
I'm perfectly okay with this, but I'd be astounded if they sat around for another 3-4 years. Maybe the Big Four have become just as stagnant and entrenched in their thinking as Harley is?

What's your estimate of the global annual market size  for electric motorcycles  over the next few years?

I haven't been able to find definite numbers, but AFAICS it was 5K-10K in 2017, pretty much all Zeros; Energica was <300 units. Brammo doesn't exist anymore, and Lightning & Mission Motorsnever sold bikes. Who else is there, aside from a few KTMs?
That's not including scooters... There were already 12M sold in 2013, and an estimated 65M will be sold this year. >90% of which in China). I can't see any mainstream manufacturer entering the market until the yearly total is >50K or so.

[calamarichris]

I have no estimates, only half-@$$ed general impressions of an armchair general.
As much (admittedly anecdotal) interest as I'm seeing among other motorcyclists and non-motorcyclists in this Zero, I feel like the Big Four (and Harley, KTM, and Triumph) are going to miss out.

[Richard230]

I don't know about elsewhere, but in the U.S. the electric motorcycle market is very small, certainly not large enough to interest the big 4 Japanese manufacturers. I have been riding electric motorcycles for the past 9 years and have yet to have an IC motorcycle rider come over to me and ask about my bike.  However, I have seen a lot of interest in my Zero by electric and hybrid car owners.  They ask about it, we talk for a while - and then they call it just an expensive toy and walk off.  This happened twice today while I was at a grocery store parking lot. 

Regarding H-D, BMW and KTM, I think their interest in electric motorcycles and scooters has more to do with politics and keeping government regulators happy than trying to generate a profit.

[calamarichris]

Really? I figured everyone would chuckle at the little wiener quietly on his way to choir practice and not wave back, like when I was on my beloved EX500. Haha--one time I waved to a couple on a Harley Roadking while riding with my dog; the female passenger waved back to me, but the male pilot at the front quickly slapped her hand down.

But about half of the people at stoplights ask about it. And the ONLY complaints people seem to have are about the sticker shock. Build enough of these to bring the price down, and...

I really think that looking at this as bandwagon that isn't big enough to get on yet is a mistake on their part. But oh well, good for Zero's longterm outlook.

[oobflyer]

For them to compete, they had better start with a minimum of 18 kWh battery pack – with at least the same specs as the Zero SR, and with the mass production capability of the larger company – the price should also be less than the Zero bikes.  Otherwise, who would buy one?
 
In any case, I will definitely be test riding one as soon as possible :-)