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Messages - pinaz

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1
Zero did present it as if it were some sort of reward to loyal owners, which I think is disingenuous.
 
I presume that Zero telegraphed their intents on 2016 pricing to dealers prior to the public disclosure.  The dealer I dealt with seemed to know that it wasn't the value that was claimed.  As soon as the 2016 models became public, the penny dropped.

2
trade in credit towards a 2014?  how much trade in?  Can that still be attained?

Zero sent letters to 2010-2012 model owners in late August offering a trade-in of the "classic" models towards 2014 models.  If memory serves, it was roughly $2k to $5k depending on the year and model.  There was no clarity as to how long the offer was valid.

When I spoke with a dealer over a month ago, only 2014 DS and S models (with maximum batteries?) were available for purchase.

The source of accurate information about availability and trade-in price would be a Zero dealer.

3
And thanks, pinaz, for this thread.

I'm glad someone got some sort of utility out of it.

4
However, what sort of self-respecting engineer programs firmware into an ECU module without any upgrade mechanism and then pours quarts of epoxy over the PCB?

Also, any industrial electronics are going to be potted in epoxy. This is for vibration and moisture resistance. Look at any motorcycle regulator/rectifier, ECU, or dashboard controller.

I think there may be a misunderstanding.  Just to clarify on the epoxy: I'm not criticizing the use of epoxy per se.  The problem was that there wasn't a mechanism to update the software once the PCB had been encapsulated in epoxy. 

I've seen Intel industrial evaluation boards back in the '80s that were program-once and toss the entire board.

To be fair... in the 80s, ROMs were "mask ROMs", program-once, or variants of the "program-once" in ceramic-packages with a window that could be exposed to UV light to erase it.  Such approaches became obsolete by the mid 90s.  Zero didn't design their ECU in the 1980s; their microcontroller has re-programmable NOR flash.

5
Some years ago (before the "S" model came out), I considered hacking together my own electric conversion.  I decided that the ICE and the electric bike platforms were just too disparate to do this in an aesthetic fashion - this after riding several "one-offs" that all had their quirks and faults ..... not to mention NO support whatsoever!

It is more than aesthetics; what is troubling about conversions is that the motor seems to get placed where ever it will fit rather than what makes sense for the swingarm geometry.

6
Fortunately for me Zero is local and they were able to help me with a new bike

were you not offered the trade in?

Given your proximity to and direct dealings with Zero, you must be in California.  I think things are a little different there.  You have to admit that you have cherry-picked a more rosy market.

Even if I tried to sell out-of-state to California, the various motorcycle shipping options state up to 15 days to ship.  Zero's user manual says the battery can't be taken off the charger for more than 3 days.

The only local offer was to take a trade-in for a '14 DS/S, but that isn't a remotely similar bike to the XU.  Getting $3k knocked off the most expensive models in the lineup of a two-year old model doesn't mean the existing bikes have value.  The dealer was trying to claim that I could then sell the bike, but just the sales tax wipes out most of the trade-in, and then the '14 models are simply no longer worth their list price.

For comparison, when I sold my long-serving Suzuki GS500E a few years ago, I had multiple buyers emailing me within minutes of my Craigslist post.

7
That's not really true now that Zero gives the trade in, and even before, the bikes stayed around 2500-3500 for a really beat down one, lets face it, most beat down motorcycles sell for the going rate... 1000$ so to me they have held there value

by offering the trade in it holds the value of any street legal Zero up as well.

I guess everyone has different experiences.

8
Pinaz, I feel I should mention that there are discounted 2014 bikes available because of a fleet deal that fell through and not because they were 'gathering dust' unable to be sold.

Good to know... I talked with a dealer about them, but no one mentioned this.  Thanks.  BTW, at the time I was told that there were only '14 DS and S models available; I might have figured ZF would be more popular fleet vehicle.  I guess it depends on the type of fleet.

9
Thanks, Mike.

As a purely practical matter, I suspect Zero can't afford the luxury of considering electrically savvy owners; I am pessimistic about Zero providing any information.

However, I do think that it is not at all unreasonable to see at least a wiring diagram for every model year and a "service highlights" to document the technical changes/improvements between model years.

To put things in a more business perspective (that might be more on the level of the Zero decision makers):

There are the "faithful" buyers that will happily pour money away to have the latest thing (and/or because they believe in the cause).  However, catering exclusively to those severely limits your market.  (I would argue that even the faithful would get tired of this eventually.)

To expand the business beyond that, one needs bikes that will have some market value even after the warranty expires.

Presently, when the warranty is up, the buyer is plain out of luck.  The resale value reflects this.  (I would suggest that the sell rate on the 2014 also reflects this.)

Even the 2013+ models, despite their superiority, have this issue.  Say a buyer has a 2013 model with a battery that is different from the 2014+.  What assurances (or even intentions) has Zero made publicly to make the 2013 battery pack for a period of time?

I do think it would behoove Zero to telegraph what their intentions are for supporting models beyond the warranty period.  It seems disingenuous to talk about battery packs that should last 300k when the bike itself is only warranted for 2 years.

If, at the end of the warranty period, the bike is worth nothing (I'm talking an "arm's length" metric here, not what personal value it might have to the owner whilst it works), I think Zero is going to struggle to grow its customer base.

Even a Certified Pre-Owned program featuring bikes with some additional warranty might inspire some market confidence without requiring any information disclosure.  Even smartphones are not thrown away; they get refurbished and re-sold.  An ostensibly "green" vehicle shouldn't be based on discarding it so soon.

I recognize that there is a Catch 22 problem here.  If Zero can't sell all the new bikes it makes, it doesn't want certified used bikes cannibalizing its sales.  However, it forever limits its market for selling new bikes if the older bikes depreciate so rapidly.  Tesla is no dummy here; they've kept the latest design improvements appealing to the "must have" crowd whilst not entirely pulling the rug out from underneath the buyers of the earlier variants.

10
Thanks, CrashCash for your well-reasoned post.  You make plenty of good points.

Expanding from what you said, there do tend to be two broad categories of motorcycle buyers.  (This is a generalization, of course.)  One is the sort who just writes a check to the dealer for each maintenance (and possibly trades in bikes all the time).  The second type is the OCD type who works on every nut and bolt of their bikes (and possibly buys them to keep for longer periods).

I think Zero's emphasis is towards the former.  The dealers get information on a limited need-to-know basis; the buyers get nada.  If the owner is someone who just wants to ride the bike, such details are unimportant.

I very deliberately posted in the pre-2013 discussion, as my criticism is focused on the earlier models.  However, my reservation is that if Zero has a track record of pushing earlier bikes under rug after 2 or so years, will their behavior be any better with the newer models?

My hope would be that the 2013+ are less risky.  The saving grace may be that the 2013+ models have much more engineering effort invested; the platforms may be much more serviceable (subject to battery compatibility) even if Zero has abandoned them.

That unsold 2014 models are collecting dust when 2016 models are about to be released suggests to me that the market also has some concern about a window of support.

I don't agree with your assertion that a service manual must describe from the bottom up on the flow of electrons.  If this were so, internal combustion itself (not to mention highly complex carburetor operation) would need to be described in ICE service manuals, and this is simply not so.

Even a wiring diagram (routine for any vehicle) is apparently too much to ask for from Zero, and that doesn't sit well with me at all.

From a strictly business perspective, I can't fault Zero's strategy.  Documentation is hard.  Customer support is costly.  Doing without these cuts down on expenses.  (Also, venture capitalists always want a "barrier to competitive entry", and being as opaque as possible helps this cause too.)

However, the bikes themselves are evidence to buyers as to the care of the designers.  There were some really amateur mistakes in the early models that give me pause.  For example, I mentioned that operating the eco/sport switch on a 2011 causes the bike to come to a halt.  Apparently, they fixed this in the 2012.  However, what sort of self-respecting engineer programs firmware into an ECU module without any upgrade mechanism and then pours quarts of epoxy over the PCB?  (What sort of self-respecting engineer doesn't de-bounce a switch!?)  Zero would never even acknowledge the problem to me.  I presume they did that because their shortsighted design would necessitate shipping a brand new ECU with a software fix.  If Zero had handled such things better, I'd be more tolerant of being an early-adopter.

11
As long as you are comfortable with the money invested being completely lost, I think it can be a worthy (if not fun) experiment.  I feel sorry for people who bought these on finance terms (appropriate for ICE motorcycles) under the mis-belief that the bike would survive that period.

How many zero bikes do you own? How many different models have you played with?

Sure have some bold statements I wouldn't even to go as far as saying and I guarantee I have more non working bikes than you have and I have more working bikes than you do as well....
I'm not even offered a trade in deal.... How do you think I feel.....

My opinions are my own.  My apologizes if I offended.  My statement was in the context of drumgadget's consideration of buying a 2011.

12
You make it sound pretty grim.  I'm a retired engineer myself, and still naive enough to think that something could be done with the basic platform of a 2011 Zero S - seems to me that it can't all be junk ....... !

Let me put it this way:

Buying a Zero within the two year from model year period assures you the possibility of warranty repairs (but be ready for unreliable operation and periods of inoperation).

Buying a Zero after that point is no better than buying a hobbyist electric conversion of a motorcycle.  Perhaps a conversion is somewhat better in that there is hope for buying standard maintenance components.

For example, the Delrin assembly that I despise so much (and which I got flack above as being "normal" for dirt bikes) is custom milled, not mentioned in the user manual as a wear item, and cannot be purchased like the "normal" dirt bikes that are being compared to.

As long as you are comfortable with the money invested being completely lost, I think it can be a worthy (if not fun) experiment.  I feel sorry for people who bought these on finance terms (appropriate for ICE motorcycles) under the mis-belief that the bike would survive that period.

13
So, pinaz - just out of curiosity, are you currently riding an electric motorcycle?  If so, what brand and model?  I'm jumping in with a good deal (I hope!) on a clean 2011 Zero S because I have to start somewhere.  I've watched this scene for years, ridden several prototypes and conversions, marvelled at the high asking price for ALL of the possible choices.  I'd be eager to hear suggestions ......

I have a 2011 Zero XU that I bought new (one of the two model year old leftovers that no one wants) and made the same leap as you appear to be set to.

I thought (naively, with hindsight) that it would be maintainable because it was using off-the-shelf components.  I bought it unseen out-of-state because there was no Zero dealer within 700 miles.

What I found was exceptionally bad engineering on Zero's part (to the point where I, as an engineer, would feel uncomfortable with).  Zero makes itself a middleman to do anything, and they really don't care to support their product (despite claims, at the time, otherwise).

From the propaganda I hear through the Zero dealer, I think Zero's funders are now positioning it as a motorcycle (secret sauce) battery company.  They know that they can't build motorcycles.  I assume the companies with the engineering to make motorcycles are waiting for someone else in the market to commoditize battery prices.

So, BrianTRice's point about eyes open and riding the hell out of it to get your money's worth is valid.  My added caveat would be that you have only two years or so from the model year where you can hope to get any cooperation from Zero (and still be ready for it to be offline for weeks, so it is not practical as a sole vehicle).  At the end of that two year period, be ready to throw the bike away for nothing.

14
If everyone had this attitude, we wouldn't get any new products of this complexity. Zero is not out to bilk you, they're trying to survive and grow.

Zero keeps shafting its existing customers to sell bikes to more first-time suckers.

I think the 2013+ crowd is beginning to awake to this.  Look at this forum; 2013 model owners find that the batteries are different to 2014+ models.

If Zero was more upfront about their strategy, I would be more sympathetic.  I'll re-quote a post I made 23 Jan 2013 citing a still unmet claim from Zero:

Quote
And here are two (optimistic) quotes from director of customer service Richard Kenton:

"We’re working to minimize that risk for new dealers and customers. All of our current owners and buyers are essentially E.V. advocates. We touch base with our riders for real-world feedback on usage, problems, potential changes and accessories. We are currently small and agile enough that we can really reach out to our customers and incorporate what we hear."

"We now have flat rate manuals, parts fiche and service manuals all online, in multiple languages to service our different markets."

http://www.dealernews.com/dealernews/article/zero-motorcycles-aims-lead-electric-bike-revolution

These days, they don't even pretend to sell parts for models prior to 2012.  I suspect that will become 2013 in a matter of weeks/months when the 2016 model comes out.

I think "Zero Maintenance" (e.g. throw it away... how very green) should be their tag line. :)

15
Yes, great post, CrashCash.

'm not a Zero owner yet (got one on the way), but I'm sure it will be no exception.  Part of the fun and excitement of 2-wheelin' ......... !

You have my sympathy.  Owning a Zero means paying a premium for a bike that is worth zero 2.5 years later.  Owning a Zero means a bike that either doesn't work for weeks or becomes disabled miles from home.  Owning a Zero means a motorcycle that can't be maintained/repaired because Zero doesn't document it and discontinues parts for any model out of its 2-year warranty.

But not to worry... Zero will give you a small trade-in allowance towards some high-priced models that are two model years old that they couldn't sell.  (That is the same two years upon which replacement parts begin to disappear.)  That way, suckers can repeat the whole thing all over again.

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