ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Harley LiveWire Forum => Topic started by: domingo3 on October 08, 2019, 06:21:22 PM
-
Not shocking in the least.
https://jalopnik.com/harley-davidsons-livewire-has-so-far-been-a-flop-repor-1838852741
-
How come almost literally everybody on the planet seemed to predict this, except for Harley management? a.k.a. the people getting paid enormous salaries to figure stuff like this out.
-
I agree. The real problem for H-D is that they tried the Tesla business plan. Come out with a very expensive (and relatively) top-performing vehicle to start and then follow up with more affordable models later.
Unfortunately for H-D, that is not something that the very conservative and cheap motorcycle market in the U.S. was going to embrace. And H-D should have known that.
What they should have done is to introduce an H-D-brand electric bicycle first and then work their way up the market to more expensive models as their aging customer base started getting the feel for the new technology. Of course, by then their traditional customers might have died off.
And today I am getting grief from the forum that is allowing the message box to extend past the right side of the box and off my computer screen. Plus, I still have no funny faces to show my displeasure of the apparently broken system.
-
I still think it will play out like Energica. Some guys don't remember how much the Ego cost at first. Over $30k.
The company got the super excited very wealthy low hanging fruit of customers to get some quick cash.
Same goes with Harley. By next summer's end I say it will be down to sub $25k and much more appealing.
-
I still think it will play out like Energica. Some guys don't remember how much the Ego cost at first. Over $30k.
The company got the super excited very wealthy low hanging fruit of customers to get some quick cash.
Same goes with Harley. By next summer's end I say it will be down to sub $25k and much more appealing.
I would think around 22K$ would be a reasonable price for the LW.
No true Level Two charging and slow CCS charging (12 KW max) are major issues on that bike making it worth less then Energica, IMO. And no reverse.
-Don- Auburn, CA
-
Technically, Tesla released the Roadster first. Lightweight and relatively cheap to produce, even though the price tag would be high.
That worked for them because they had no other vehicles and no dealer network to convince, they had to show a product. Then they produced the S, and slowly upgraded it while prepping for the 3. The 3 ate badly into their S sales.
HD had to do it the other way and needed to strong-arm dealers into accepting the new bikes. The high price-point won't work if they can't get it into showrooms, the delays aren't helping, either. Especially into a market with other electric options, nearly all cheaper, and Zero already is starting to have a healthy used market... So competing on the lower end would've been really hard to begin with.
From the people I know who've ridden it, it's relatively light feeling and a nice bike.
-Crissa
-
I betcha they could sell more Livewires if they used images like this in their ads:
http://tinyurl.com/y663l9qu
It's been years since that movie came out, so people might've forgotten. Good way to get the attention of the female demographic, too. Just a thought...
-
How come almost literally everybody on the planet seemed to predict this, except for Harley management? a.k.a. the people getting paid enormous salaries to figure stuff like this out.
I have a feeling that they knew it would flop and for some reason didn't care.
I don't have any great theories about why. Maybe they wanted to be able to claim that they were the first major motorcycle manufacturer with a production electric motorcycle. Maybe they wanted to be able to report that ICE is king and even their amazing tech product doesn't sell. Producing the LiveWire seems like a very expensive way to do either of those things. Anyone else have a better idea?
-
I have a feeling that they knew it would flop and for some reason didn't care.
I don't have any great theories about why. Maybe they wanted to be able to claim that they were the first major motorcycle manufacturer with a production electric motorcycle. Maybe they wanted to be able to report that ICE is king and even their amazing tech product doesn't sell. Producing the LiveWire seems like a very expensive way to do either of those things. Anyone else have a better idea?
IMO, they don't want to get left behind when electrics become more popular. Someday, perhaps electric will outnumber ICE vehicles and those who only have ICE will have a very difficult time getting into the electrics.
It will then be too late to compete. HD would rather not be able to compete early than later <g>.
As we know, many Wal*Marts now have CCS charging. I heard today, next will be more Chevron and Shell gas stations, at least in CA.
The gas stations need to get ready for the change as well. But some need to understand that if there were more charge stations in other states (such as Nevada, away from larger cities) then the EVs would sell a lot better.
-Don- Auburn, CA
-
How come almost literally everybody on the planet seemed to predict this, except for Harley management? a.k.a. the people getting paid enormous salaries to figure stuff like this out.
I have a feeling that they knew it would flop and for some reason didn't care.
I don't have any great theories about why. Maybe they wanted to be able to claim that they were the first major motorcycle manufacturer with a production electric motorcycle. Maybe they wanted to be able to report that ICE is king and even their amazing tech product doesn't sell. Producing the LiveWire seems like a very expensive way to do either of those things. Anyone else have a better idea?
Maybe H-D wanted another experience like they had selling the Buell brand? (insert rolling eyes face here)
-
So I've been trying very hard to imagine what Harley management was thinking while developing the LiveWire. Here are a few thoughts I've had.
1) They know they have to do SOMETHING. Their problems are severe to the point where the company is in danger of going under. They've played out all the tricks in their bag.
2) They're not going to be able to compete with Honda, Yamaha and the like making sportbikes. They've never made sportbikes and aren't known for that.
3) They're not going to be successful in the cruiser or touring genres, either. They're currently getting their asses kicked in those areas.
4) Most industry analysts, even EV haters, recognize that the automotive industry is going to be mostly electric at some point. That MAY BE true for motorcycles as well.
5) Harley has always been able to sell bikes at a premium, even bikes that don't have great performance, reliability or tangible value.
6) That would seem to show that there's a perceived value in a bike just being a Harley, or perhaps intangibles such as styling, sound, riding position. The cool factor, in other words.
7) Harley THINKS they haven't lost that perceived value yet, and just need to recapture it in a different direction.
8) The ability to turn heads in public is a very important, very underrated factor. "Oh, it's that electric Harley!" Very few people say that about a Zero.
9) One big advantage they do have is a mature dealer network. You can always find one, and if they can get CCS in most of them, that gives them a solid charging infrastructure, in addition to never being too far away from being able to get service.
10) CCS is very cool, especially to those of us familiar with EVs. It's a big advantage, to the point where I'd very seriously consider an Energica for my next bike.
So to sum up, price and mediocre performance have never been big problems for Harley. Their biggest assets have always been a good dealer network so you're never too far from service and/or parts, and the intangibles.
I'm still very, very skeptical, but starting to see at least some sort of sensical business case for this bike. I think maybe the most important thing is item number 8 -- when a few of them get out there, are people going to start recognizing them and lusting after them?
-
I agree with Doug's points.
I think Harley knows they're caught in a tough spot - and being double-crossed by the trade deals hasn't helped.
They need to aim for the future. And they're taking advantage of their name cachet to try to get in on the ground floor.
-Crissa
-
From the article.
Younger would-be buyers, meanwhile, are put off by the LiveWire’s high cost. The LiveWire starts at $29,799, almost enough for a Chevy Volt ($33,520) or over $10,000 more than the competing Zero SR/F electric bike.
This is not surprising. I'm not willing to cough up $30k for a motorcycle platform that I haven't even had a chance to ride. Older riders have disposable incomes and are more willing to take that risk. Once more people ride them you might see a spike in sales if reviews are good.
Just because a lot of us wouldn't/can't afford a LiveWire doesn't mean a large group of people also can't afford them. Far more rich people in this world than you would believe.
Another thing holding LiveWire back: Its range, which is a decent 146 miles in the city but plummets on the highway, giving it 96 miles combined range.
Almost all electric motorcycles have crap range right now. And before people start quoting Zero SR/F numbers, their city range is 161 (vs. 146 LW) and combined range of 109 (vs 96 LW). These differences are not massive and that is testing ranges.. not actual real world ranges. Which we all know are far from factory promises.
The dealers Reuters spoke with haven’t been impressed.
That's because the LiveWire isn't a friend to dealers. Harley dealers make their money on servicing their motorcycles and selling you parts. The LiveWire will most likely not have NEARLY the same amount of upgrades as their standard motorcycles and services are far fewer on electric.
Dealers are not excited to get the LiveWire. When I've asked them about it.. very rarely are they excited to talk to you about the motorcycle and almost want to change the subject. Most Harley employees are Harley riders, which tend to be anti-new tech.
Harley wouldn’t say how many pre-orders it received for the LiveWire, but an analyst estimated they would sell between 400 and 1,600 LiveWires its first year. If true, that would be less than 1 percent of the total number of motorcycles it sells a year, which last year was 228,051.
Well, in general, Harley moves a lot of units so this isn't surprising. A new platform with a high MSRP. Did anyone think it was going to show up and gobble up 20% of their sales or something?
Harley has openly said they don't plan to move a lot of LiveWire units. It's a testing bed for future motorcycles. We should all be happy they are even entering this market.
-
So I've been trying very hard to imagine what Harley management was thinking while developing the LiveWire. Here are a few thoughts I've had.
How about preparing for shall we call it trade wars. Our (USA) export will be to a large degree agricultural product. The Europeans will figure some way to not like some aspect be it gmo, our chemical use or documentation that such food source is chemical free. Motorcycles and wines seem to be among the first things to get tarrifs or some cost multiplier added. It was European motorcycles under 500cc the trail rider groups were all excited about a year or few back. Chances are the electric ones will be exempt.
Is the term developing the live wire misleading? Didn't they basically buy the design perhaps 4 years ago?
As for the article in post 1 How can it be a flop the author won't say how many they intend on making and if they will have to stop short of that. I suspect they did not really try too hard to find a supplier of components and determine what sort of quantities are expected to be ordered.
The target demographic often discussed never mentions needing a piece of real estate with a garage to put the thing in.
-
Kodak invented the digital camera... and look what happened to them!
I'm sure Harley have it covered... but I suspect Harley just needs to get the figures right (on the price of their Livewire); to make sure supply and demand mean they get maximum return on the ongoing cost of production (rather than including any compensation for initial development). This will eventually lead to them getting back their initial investment on the development of the Livewire.
It's got to be hard to price appropriately when the technology and acceptance of electric motorbikes is still only in its infancy!
It's also got to be easy to over-estimate demand initially! We have a habit of saying one thing but not always acting when it's our own money that's at stake. I'm just hoping that Harley have plenty of buffer—in the average cost of producing a single bike—to bring the price down to one that will drive demand. I also really hope they have the $$$ to increase the production to a level that continues brings the average cost per bike down, and that this DOES lead to the increased demand needed.
Ah, the economics of it all!!!
-
I'll play the pro Harley side real quick. Lets write millennials off as the no money group that it is. The customer is always right. But you have to have money to be a customer.
So lets look at the baby boomers. I've only had a handful of talks with Harley owners about, well anything really, but about my Zero and the LiveWire.
There was a guy seeing my bike at the dealer and asking what it was. I told him it was electric and all the common answers about range and torque and feel.
And that was where he perked up. He was a midlife first bike buyer not unlike myself but he was quick to admit how hard and uncomfortable riding his Harley was.
Said he couldn't feel his hands after a longer ride. Also who really wants to shift all day if you don't need to.
So that's the key, it's easier and more simple to ride. There is a group of people who's bodies are giving out on them and they think if I'll ever do it I need to do it soon.
The LiveWire makes that bucket list box of riding a Harley a doable thing.
It's like talking about all the other gripes of getting old. It's one on one and in lower tones. But you'd do well to listen.
Hey this new thing is so much easier on my, well everything, you got to get one too.
That's where the sales can and might come from. Just have to sell a few first ones and let them talk.
-
If their bodies are giving out, wouldn't they fit better in an Arcimoto instead?
But Harley does have that cachet, which is what I was thinking.
-
I'll play the pro Harley side real quick. Lets write millennials off as the no money group that it is. The customer is always right. But you have to have money to be a customer.
So lets look at the baby boomers. I've only had a handful of talks with Harley owners about, well anything really, but about my Zero and the LiveWire.
There was a guy seeing my bike at the dealer and asking what it was. I told him it was electric and all the common answers about range and torque and feel.
And that was where he perked up. He was a midlife first bike buyer not unlike myself but he was quick to admit how hard and uncomfortable riding his Harley was.
Said he couldn't feel his hands after a longer ride. Also who really wants to shift all day if you don't need to.
So that's the key, it's easier and more simple to ride. There is a group of people who's bodies are giving out on them and they think if I'll ever do it I need to do it soon.
The LiveWire makes that bucket list box of riding a Harley a doable thing.
It's like talking about all the other gripes of getting old. It's one on one and in lower tones. But you'd do well to listen.
Hey this new thing is so much easier on my, well everything, you got to get one too.
That's where the sales can and might come from. Just have to sell a few first ones and let them talk.
The problem is getting past the H-D lifestyle peer pressure.
-
The problem is getting past the H-D lifestyle peer pressure.
The LiveWire doesn't really fit their standard demographic so does that still exist with that motorcycle?
Personally I'd take a LiveWire over any of their other bikes right now and I ride a Harley currently. But I also don't plan to do any long trips or cross country stuff. I mostly stay local here in the SF Bay Area. A lot of their riders do really long trips, I know a few myself who buy their giant touring bikes as they do multi-day adventures regularly. Mostly retired folk.
-
You know I kind of get the long tour appeal for a retiree but I do wonder if those guys have ever known the happiness of shorter, but any time you want, riding.
Hopping on a smaller quick electric bike with no warm up or worries about adding miles toward the next oil change and value adjustment. Doing short around town runs.
It is really nice.
-
The problem is getting past the H-D lifestyle peer pressure.
The LiveWire doesn't really fit their standard demographic so does that still exist with that motorcycle?
Personally I'd take a LiveWire over any of their other bikes right now and I ride a Harley currently. But I also don't plan to do any long trips or cross country stuff. I mostly stay local here in the SF Bay Area. A lot of their riders do really long trips, I know a few myself who buy their giant touring bikes as they do multi-day adventures regularly. Mostly retired folk.
I am betting that peer pressure will exist at H-D dealerships and at H-D sponsored events.
-
Personally I'd take a LiveWire over any of their other bikes right now and I ride a Harley currently.
But I also don't plan to do any long trips or cross country stuff. I mostly stay local here in the SF Bay Area. A lot of their riders do really long trips, I know a few myself who buy their giant touring bikes as they do multi-day adventures regularly. Mostly retired folk.
That's not saying much as the LW is so opposite of any other Harley. But compared to other electric bikes, would you consider the LW?
-Don- Auburn, CA
-
Personally I'd take a LiveWire over any of their other bikes right now and I ride a Harley currently.
But I also don't plan to do any long trips or cross country stuff. I mostly stay local here in the SF Bay Area. A lot of their riders do really long trips, I know a few myself who buy their giant touring bikes as they do multi-day adventures regularly. Mostly retired folk.
That's not saying much as the LW is so opposite of any other Harley. But compared to other electric bikes, would you consider the LW?
-Don- Auburn, CA
I would consider it if the price was at least $10,000 lower.
-
You know I kind of get the long tour appeal for a retiree but I do wonder if those guys have ever known the happiness of shorter, but any time you want, riding.
Hopping on a smaller quick electric bike with no warm up or worries about adding miles toward the next oil change and value adjustment. Doing short around town runs.
It is really nice.
Agreed...this aspect keeps me reaching for the keys for my electric over my gas bike except for when I was considering making a ride from NorCal to SoCal recently (ended up driving my car though).
-
Personally I'd take a LiveWire over any of their other bikes right now and I ride a Harley currently.
But I also don't plan to do any long trips or cross country stuff. I mostly stay local here in the SF Bay Area. A lot of their riders do really long trips, I know a few myself who buy their giant touring bikes as they do multi-day adventures regularly. Mostly retired folk.
That's not saying much as the LW is so opposite of any other Harley. But compared to other electric bikes, would you consider the LW?
-Don- Auburn, CA
I would consider it if the price was at least $10,000 lower.
Yep...I would even consider it at a $5k reduction although it would have to drop to the $22k mark before I would be tempted to buy it. It's a moot point now though since I'm completely happy with my Energica.
-
But compared to other electric bikes, would you consider the LW?
I doubt many of us, if any, would. But we're informed shoppers -- we know electric bikes. Harley fans have a vague idea that maybe there are other motorcycle manufacturers out there, but they'd have a hard time naming any.
-
I would consider it if the price was at least $10,000 lower.
While 20K$ would be a reasonable price, I would still pay more to take any of the Energicas over it just for the charging being twice the speed
on both level two and three.
BTW, AC power has been out in Auburn all day, so I rode back here to Reno. I took the Moto Guzzi since it has an 8.5 gallon (and was full) tank. But gas stations were open at Cisco Grove East.
I see they still have not fixed this forum.
-Don- Reno, NV
-
That's not saying much as the LW is so opposite of any other Harley. But compared to other electric bikes, would you consider the LW?
-Don- Auburn, CA
I mean, I like the Zero SR/F more than the other Zero's but I have yet to ride it. The lack of level 3 bothers me. I've yet to see or ride an Energica. In all honesty I like the styling on the LiveWire more than most other electrics on the market.
Happy to admit specs are not as good as some others - but damn I'm a sucker for a good looking bike. Which is subjective, I know.
-
I mean, I like the Zero SR/F more than the other Zero's but I have yet to ride it. The lack of level 3 bothers me. I've yet to see or ride an Energica. In all honesty I like the styling on the LiveWire more than most other electrics on the market.
Happy to admit specs are not as good as some others - but damn I'm a sucker for a good looking bike. Which is subjective, I know.
I did a test ride on it. It's very fast, but also very uncomfortable to me. Foot pegs up way too high and it has a sporty ride position so one's head has to be lifted up a bit.
While I prefer good looking bikes, I would rather ride them than look at them. We cannot see our own bikes while we ride.
Besides, I like the looks of all the Energicas best of all. Especially the red 2020 Ego. But I am not a sport rider. I ride more like a little old lady and the Esse Esse 9 is more than fast enough for me. I don't even bother with using the sport mode with it.
-Don- Reno, NV
-
If the gas stations are running, you can charge your bike! ^-^
I think that's a good point; the electrics are the next thing and the Harley demographic is aging. That can come together very powerfully.
-Crissa
-
If the gas stations are running, you can charge your bike! ^-^
I think that's a good point; the electrics are the next thing and the Harley demographic is aging. That can come together very powerfully.
-Crissa
Yes, but I did not then know. What I did know is that my Moto Guzzi Stelvio could get to Reno and back a couple of times with no stops at all. Yes, I could have taken my electric bikes as well as all the chargers were open at Cisco Grove east today. But I needed to give my ICE bikes some exercise anyway as I ride my electrics about 95% of my rides.
-Don- Reno, NV
-
It's way too early to make a call like "so far it's been a flop".
And remember, buyers don't necessarily think in a logical manner, as opposed to most sport riders.
As a sport/dirt rider, I have no idea why anyone would buy any Harley, ever. Yet they do.
It will be another year or five before Harley's future becomes apparent.
I'll not be too sad if they fail, especially after they murdered Buell and Alta.
-
I have no idea why anyone would buy any Harley, ever. Yet they do.
I have ridden many Harleys, I hated them all, until I tried out my buddy's 2017 Road Glide. And then I bought one. It's (by far) the most comfy bike I own. Whenever I am going more than a few hundred miles, my Harley is my choice.
FWIW, I used to be a real Harley hater. But to me, who makes it is NOT at all important. It's the model, not the company name. I have NO (and I mean NONE) brand loyalty. Companies and models change all the time.
-Don- Reno, NV
-
It's way too early to make a call like "so far it's been a flop".
And remember, buyers don't necessarily think in a logical manner, as opposed to most sport riders.
As a sport/dirt rider, I have no idea why anyone would buy any Harley, ever. Yet they do.
It will be another year or five before Harley's future becomes apparent.
I'll not be too sad if they fail, especially after they murdered Buell and Alta.
Almost no motorcycle purchase is logical at this point. Between the danger and cost it doesn't make sense as a mode of transportation.
As far as sport/dirt riders being more logical than Harley riders.. I'm not sure that is accurate. 99% of sport riders can't ride what they have to its full potential, does that make their purchase illogical? 99% of sport riders don't go the track. Does that make their purchase illogical?
People just have different preferences for what they want to ride. I love sport bikes but not a fan of the riding style or position. I don't ride to beat anyone in the twisties I mostly just enjoy cruising up the mountain - looking at bikes - hanging out - heading to the coast.
On another note, do we know if Harley was the cause of Alta's downfall? I know they pulled out of funding but I don't believe Harley would pull out of Alta for stupid reasons. Everyone LOVED those motorcycles. Something must have been off about finances, costs to build, management, something.
The fact that nobody else stepped up to fund Alta is also questionable. If the company was the chosen one of electric dirt bikes wouldn't another investor/investors step up? The fact they just shut down one day due to finances makes me think there was more to it.. but speculation is speculation.
-
Alta's assets were purchased by BRP (Can Am), but I think they were just after the intellectual property. They stated they don't have any intention of restarting the brand.
https://dirtbiketest.com/fresh-dirt/alta-motors-purchased-but-probably-the-end-of-the-line/#9crM0LRqcePS55Q0.97
-
Ahh, knowing the range. That's the way. In some ways I miss my Sentra (or my first Honda). That Sentra I knew its range so tightly I glided in on fumes (like literally stalling out in a gas station) multiple times.
I made it from San Jose to LA on single tank and hop multiple times... Once almost made it to San Diego.
My Mazda is much too punchy to know the range at that distance. A little wind, a little traffic, and it sucks gas completely different. The Zero is turning out to be the same, but I've never had a bike before.
-Crissa
-
Thinking about the H-D LiveWire last night made me wonder if H-D sunk Alta Motors by pulling their financing lifeline just to eliminate come competition in the EV market that was half the price and could very well have cut into their sales - such as they are.
I wouldn't put it past them. They have done things like that in the past.
-
Thinking about the H-D LiveWire last night made me wonder if H-D sunk Alta Motors by pulling their financing lifeline just to eliminate come competition in the EV market that was half the price and could very well have cut into their sales - such as they are.
I wouldn't put it past them. They have done things like that in the past.
That's a stretch. Alta only made dirt bikes and Harley doesn't make ANY (unless you count their competition-only flat-trackers). If anything, they would've targeted Zero, I would think. OTOH, they DID have a deal with Mission Motors early on in the Livewire's development, and pulled out of that...
-
I was very upset at Alta shutting down. I think Harley had some sort of roll in it but Alta needed to have it's ship in order.
They should have been able to go on with or without Harley. In Harley's defense if Alta's books looked as bad as they likely did
then I guess you can't blame them too much for not taking on bad debt.
I didn't know at the time that Alta was just using the 18650 cells.
In the end I think it was a great little dirt bike there may not have been enough secret sauce for Harley to pull the trigger.
-
Thinking about the H-D LiveWire last night made me wonder if H-D sunk Alta Motors by pulling their financing lifeline just to eliminate come competition in the EV market that was half the price and could very well have cut into their sales - such as they are.
I wouldn't put it past them. They have done things like that in the past.
That's a stretch. Alta only made dirt bikes and Harley doesn't make ANY (unless you count their competition-only flat-trackers). If anything, they would've targeted Zero, I would think. OTOH, they DID have a deal with Mission Motors early on in the Livewire's development, and pulled out of that...
My recollection is that Alta was producing a couple of street-legal ADV and super-moto models that were based upon their dirt bikes before they went under.