ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Richard230 on May 17, 2017, 08:19:16 PM
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Here is another one: http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry (http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin-death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that-shocking-the-industry)
Personally, I think people will keep using fossil fuels as long as it remains cheap and plentiful. So far they keep finding more and new ways to suck it out of the ground and transport it to your local area so that it can be burned and help to warm the planet. I gotta tell you those dinosaurs were really productive back in the day. ::)
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I can see this happening, but NOT in just eight years time...
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Link to the actual "study" (in quotes as I doubt it is a "real" study or repeatable)
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/591a2e4be6f2e1c13df930c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf
I will hold off my judgement till after I have read it later but will note we are making our largest findings of "fossil fuels" in recent years than ever before :/
I sure hope this "study" covers how 95% of our energy plants using coal are going to somehow go the way of the dodo-bird in 8 years as well ... because even if we entertain an all electric vehicle workforce the energy has to come from somewhere ...
I just snickered inside when I wrote that thinking of 18 wheelers being EV 0__0
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Not to mention that most transcontinental railways are run by diesel. And what about airplanes?
Ships could conceivably revert back to sails I suppose... but that doesn't sound particularly practical either. Could you imagine the Royal Caribbean Oasis of the Seas running on wind power??
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I think we shouldn't underestimate the impact that autonomy will have. We also naturally think of things in a linear fashion when the reality is that technology is moving exponentially. Eight years is actually a very long time when you consider the current pace of change and how it will continue to increase.
Just look at how all the major car manufacturers are racing to be the first to bring autonomous vehicles to market. They know that as soon as AVs are available, millions will flock to them. Even if they are relatively expensive to begin with, sharing schemes will make them cheaper to use. It will all be driven by demand.
If it ends up with huge scrappage schemes for current ICE vehicles, safer roads and less congestion, then I'm all for it.
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As long as there are people who LOVE to drive (or ride) I don't see it happening.
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As long as there are people who LOVE to drive (or ride) I don't see it happening.
My brother is the president of a 1970's "muscle car" club. He hates electricity - for a number of reasons. ;)
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I don't personally see it as "electrics killing off ICEs". There are enthusiasts of all sorts, and EVs are just another option. I DO think that long-term, EVs are going to dominate because they'll become a better option for the vast majority of people that just want cheap, reliable transportation, but there will be all sorts of niche markets forever. There are still Stanley Steamers running...hell, Martha Stewart drives an Edsel station wagon!
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There will always be enthusiasts that keep obsolete technology running as a hobby. A small percentage of people will want to drive their cars all the time. The vast majority will be more than happy to allow a computer system do the job though. Even the enthusiasts will be happy to be driven home from the pub when they're drunk.
I would hope that car crime will go down too, once cars can drive the criminals to the police station.
All good news for bikers because the roads will be a lot safer for us.