ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Richard230 on March 05, 2016, 05:33:20 AM
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Here is an article that claims that EVs will be cheaper to buy and own than IC vehicles by 2022.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022 (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022)
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Hi Richard first off thanks for the post. The part where they talk about the battery costs per kWh being $350 in 2015, that can't be right can it? I mean maybe lead acid or something but Lithium ion? That would make Zero's 13 kWh monolith $4500. I thought it was $1000 per kWh in say 2012 and now closer to $850 am I that far off? I saw a video of Elon saying the $1000 figure and his Giga factory would bring it closer to $100 in like 20 years.
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When it comes to predicting the future cost of lithium batteries, your guess is as good as theirs. My prediction is that the price will have a lot to do with supply and demand. If there is a big supply and not too much demand, prices should be pretty reasonable. But if electric vehicle sales finally take off (such as should the price of oil go ballistic due to a war in the Middle East), then battery prices might remain pretty high. Anyway, we will just have to wait and see. Besides, how many people can recall predictions about anything from 5 or 6 years ago? I have enough trouble remembering the weather forecast prediction from a couple of days ago. ::)
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Hi Richard first off thanks for the post. The part where they talk about the battery costs per kWh being $350 in 2015, that can't be right can it? I mean maybe lead acid or something but Lithium ion? That would make Zero's 13 kWh monolith $4500. I thought it was $1000 per kWh in say 2012 and now closer to $850 am I that far off? I saw a video of Elon saying the $1000 figure and his Giga factory would bring it closer to $100 in like 20 years.
1. It's not always clear, when costs per kWh are being thrown around, if they are referring to cell costs or battery costs. Zero benefits from efficiencies of scale at the cell level, but assembling cells into battery packs requires a lot of low volume pieces: cabling / bus interconnects, BMS and other circuit boards, weatherproofing, enclosure, etc. Plus assembly to put the monolith together.
2. At the cell-level, costs are already approaching $200/kWh (http://insideevs.com/analysts-tesla-model-x-production-ramps-up-battery-cell-density-improves-as-price-per-kwh-continues-to-fall/) or even lower (http://evobsession.com/gm-145-kwh-battery-costs-bolt-ev-launch/).
With all that said: $4500 sounds reasonable to me for Zero's marginal cost for the ZF13 4-brick monolith.
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GN is claiming $145/kWh for the 2017 Chevy Bolt. I'd guess that is the cell cost, not the battery cost. As I understand it one of the prime objectives of the Tesla gigafactory is to bring down the cost of assembling cells and batteries, which is greater than the cost of the raw materials.
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Subtitled "Reinventing how these batteries are made also improves their performance and recyclability.".
http://news.mit.edu/2015/manufacturing-lithium-ion-battery-half-cost-0623 (http://news.mit.edu/2015/manufacturing-lithium-ion-battery-half-cost-0623)
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This article estimates the Bolt battery pack cost at $300/kWh
http://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2015/10/28/lg-chem-may-be-on-the-verge-of-dominating-ev-battery-industry/#455fedbc144d (http://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2015/10/28/lg-chem-may-be-on-the-verge-of-dominating-ev-battery-industry/#455fedbc144d)