ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Richard230 on August 20, 2015, 03:46:32 AM
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So today I hear a news report that oil prices have fallen below $41 a barrel and one analyst says that it will hit $20 a barrel soon (tough luck Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and the like). Pretty soon Big Oil is going to be paying you to take gas off of their hands and looking to the government for more tax breaks because they are "too big to fail". ::) So what do you think this is going to do to electric motorcycle sales? ???
My thought is that it is not going to be good and sales are not going to be helped much when state and federal rebates and tax credits fade away, as I suspect they will this year. It is going to be tough marketing electric motorcycles as a way to save money on transportation due to their high initial purchase price and gas that is being predicted to cost around $2 a gallon this winter. I figure the only way to sell electric is to provide more test rides of bikes like the SR that really give you a kick in the butt and go for the thrill, rather then selling the idea of saving pennies on transportation. ;)
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The price of gas can fall to 10 cents a gallon and I will still commute on my SR. It's about the power delivery of the electric motor that appeals to me.
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Somehow gas seems does not seem to stay below $4 per gallon for very long in California, regardless of oil prices. I am sure there will be some reason some refinery is offline, etc..
In any case, gas prices did not significantly influence my decision to purchase an electric motorcycle. I bought it because I enjoyed riding it (much more than an ICE motorcycle).
Chocula
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I still want to buy a Zero, and gas price is not a reason,but charging overnight and never having to stop for gas is an advantage as well as Low maintenance, no emmisions, silence, no clutch and gearbox, hi torque.
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I still want to buy a Zero, and gas price is not a reason,but charging overnight and never having to stop for gas is an advantage as well as Low maintenance, no emmisions, silence, no clutch and gearbox, hi torque. electric is
That. The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones...
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well said Erasmo
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Well, I was thinking in terms of advancing the industry, which needs the general public to buy into the EV concept to keep production numbers high enough to expand the technology and keep companies like Zero in business. If people don't buy electric vehicles because of cheap gas and manufacturers can only sell a thousand or so a year to enthusiasts, then that is not going to further the sport, advance the technology , save the planet - and quiet the neighborhood.
It doesn't help that governments seem to be loosing their enthusiasm for electric vehicles. Instead of supporting them through continuing rebates and the like, some states in the West seem to be trying to think of ways to make electric vehicles pay more taxes by raising their vehicle-specific yearly licensing fees. A proposal in California is to have all electric vehicles (no mention was made of exempting motorcycles) pay an additional $100 each year (over and above the usual fee which is based upon initial purchase price) on their registration fee to compensate the State for them not paying gas taxes at the pump. I believe Oregon and Washington have similar plans in mind.
If these legislators would get their heads out of their asses long enough to think about it they would realize that electric motorcycles solve the one thing that they hate the most, loud noise. Instead they create silence. :)
I might add that virtually every IC motorcycle forum that I frequent has a large number of IC motorcycle owners who are inquiring about purchasing a loud exhaust system or after-market muffler to replace the quiet stock system. As near as I can tell, the louder the better. Even many (apparently) mature BMW owners seem to want to save as many lives as they can by making a bunch of racket. Personally, what I like most about my Zero is that it is quiet. :D
And, with regard to legislators and the general public: quiet means "out of mind" and "out of mind" means fewer restrictive motorcycle laws. ;)
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It doesn't help that governments seem to be loosing their enthusiasm for electric vehicles. Instead of supporting them through continuing rebates and the like, some states in the West seem to be trying to think of ways to make electric vehicles pay more taxes by raising their vehicle-specific yearly licensing fees. A proposal in California is to have all electric vehicles (no mention was made of exempting motorcycles) pay an additional $100 each year (over and above the usual fee which is based upon initial purchase price) on their registration fee to compensate the State for them not paying gas taxes at the pump. I believe Oregon and Washington have similar plans in mind.
Subsidies, tax credits and the like can be a double-edged sword. Sure, they help support the industry they target, but they can also stir up a lot of resentment from people that aren't such big fans of that industry. Look at how up-in-arms some people get about the tax credit Tesla purchasers get -- many people are far more resentful of that than the multi-billion dollar bailouts the car manufacturers got a few years back, or the literally trillions of dollars petroleum companies have received over the years.
I think EVs are still a young enough (and expensive enough) industry that they still benefit a lot from government assistance, but at some point the industry needs to outgrow that sort of support....not that we've reached that point yet, but it will (and needs to) happen someday.
I said to a gay friend recently that his community finally has the right to get married just like the rest of us. He laughed and said, "More importantly, we also have the right to get divorced and be bitter at each other for the rest of our lives." There's some truth to that -- wars aren't won in the ivory towers, they're won down in the mud. I don't think EVs are eventually going to win out over ICE vehicles because they're subsidized, or just because they're cheaper to run, or for any one reason. They're going to win out, eventually, when they become better vehicles overall.
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It will be interesting to see what impact the gigafactory has. There is the potential for battery prices to tumble. Zero has already dropped their prices. I wonder if they're considering a Tesla battery pack? I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla start producing a range of different sized packs that are suitable for different applications. The battery management system would come with it, along with a range of charging options. All using the technology developed for their cars.
I think that it's the electric motor that will replace the internal combustion engine, simply because it is better technology. Just as the steam engine was made obsolete. In so many applications, it took over a long time ago. Making the electric motor independently mobile has been the big problem, which is all but solved.
I'd say yes, as electric bikes become more practical and affordable every year.
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The only problems with Tesla's cell are that they are cylindrical, and they are somewhat lower energy dense than the cells that Zero use hardly a problem for a car, but a real problem for a motorbike with limited space. So while they would be cheaper, they would result in a bike with significantly reduced range.
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It's not the gas price that made me buying my DS, but the government rebates that encouraged me to buy one. In Holland, the price of petrol is for 70% determined by fixed taxes so cheaper oil will barely drop the prices
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I believe like Richard, that for the Electric Motorcycle industry in general to expand, more sales are needed. The early adopters tend to acquire new technology for the sake of trying out and experiencing the new technology, and the economics are not as important for those early purchases.
However, for electric motorcycles to be seen as a viable vehicle class, the appeal to the broader market is needed. Fuel prices may help for automobiles, however I don't think that motorcycle enthusiasts are as concerned with fuel prices since most ICE motorcycles get reasonable mileage. And gasoline prices don't seem to follow the price of oil, so the downward trend on pricing of oil isn't reflected directly in the price gasoline.
IMO the positives that come with electric propulsion need to be promoted to the max, and manufacturers such as Zero, Victory, and the others need to do a much better job of marketing the advantages of their electric motorcycles so that more people in the general public will also want to try one. Ease of use and ease of ownership of an electric motorcycle need to be promoted in ways so that the general public will be enticed to join our party.
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It's not the gas price that made me buying my DS, but the government rebates that encouraged me to buy one. In Holland, the price of petrol is for 70% determined by fixed taxes so cheaper oil will barely drop the prices
Wait what rebate? From the provincie?
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It's not the gas price that made me buying my DS, but the government rebates that encouraged me to buy one. In Holland, the price of petrol is for 70% determined by fixed taxes so cheaper oil will barely drop the prices
Wait what rebate? From the provincie?
No, The 'Kleinschaligheidsinvesteringsaftrek' (28%) and the 'Milieu Investerings Aftrek' (36%). That's for self employed people only and gives a lot of tax deduction. So the nett price of the bike is about 1/3 - 1/4 of the catalog price. And there is no road tax for the electric bikes.
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I think that better batteries and more and better quick charge possibilities will imrpove the acception of electric bikes.
I have a bit regret of buying my Zero because the lack of fast charge possibilities. I really do not understand that Zero don't want support the riders with the Chademo option. That's one of the main wishes of their customers and they are really deaf for this. Bad attitude.
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On the marketing front, perhaps a campaign to address range anxiety might work? Not much point until fast charging I'd sorted though. Analogies with charging phones at night are helpful. It's very frustrating when your phone run out of charge and you're about to go on your commute. That's why those external batteries are so popular. Something the size of a lipstick is enough to keep you going until you're at your desk or home and can plug back in. Fast charging is the equivalent.
I thought it was sad that Justin had to travel to the UK demo by train. With fast charging he could have ridden down on his zero.
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I really do not understand that Zero don't want support the riders with the Chademo option. That's one of the main wishes of their customers and they are really deaf for this. Bad attitude.
My sense is that they got burned pretty bad by the initial adopters who found they couldn't charge at every CHAdeMO station. In some cases people had 1 station in mind along their regular route and if that didn't work then they bought and paid to install an expensive outlet that didn't meet their needs.
Fortunately there are some 3rd party vendors looking to figure it out.
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I thought it was sad that Justin had to travel to the UK demo by train. With fast charging he could have ridden down on his zero.
Were the demo a week or two later I would have done as well, as my fast charging rig was being built at the time.
Fortunately there are some 3rd party vendors looking to figure it out.
I'd be interested in that as well.
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It's not the gas price that made me buying my DS, but the government rebates that encouraged me to buy one. In Holland, the price of petrol is for 70% determined by fixed taxes so cheaper oil will barely drop the prices
Wait what rebate? From the provincie?
No, The 'Kleinschaligheidsinvesteringsaftrek' (28%) and the 'Milieu Investerings Aftrek' (36%). That's for self employed people only and gives a lot of tax deduction. So the nett price of the bike is about 1/3 - 1/4 of the catalog price. And there is no road tax for the electric bikes.
Ah yes the sole reason why the Model S is the best selling EV in the Netherlands. With those prices you'd be stupid not to go electric.
I really do not understand that Zero don't want support the riders with the Chademo option. That's one of the main wishes of their customers and they are really deaf for this. Bad attitude.
My sense is that they got burned pretty bad by the initial adopters who found they couldn't charge at every CHAdeMO station. In some cases people had 1 station in mind along their regular route and if that didn't work then they bought and paid to install an expensive outlet that didn't meet their needs.
Fortunately there are some 3rd party vendors looking to figure it out.
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Such a shame the pulled the plug because people where too lazy to investigate if the one station on their route was compatible.
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It's not the gas price that made me buying my DS, but the government rebates that encouraged me to buy one. In Holland, the price of petrol is for 70% determined by fixed taxes so cheaper oil will barely drop the prices
Wait what rebate? From the provincie?
No, The 'Kleinschaligheidsinvesteringsaftrek' (28%) and the 'Milieu Investerings Aftrek' (36%). That's for self employed people only and gives a lot of tax deduction. So the nett price of the bike is about 1/3 - 1/4 of the catalog price. And there is no road tax for the electric bikes.
Ah yes the sole reason why the Model S is the best selling EV in the Netherlands. With those prices you'd be stupid not to go electric.
I really do not understand that Zero don't want support the riders with the Chademo option. That's one of the main wishes of their customers and they are really deaf for this. Bad attitude.
My sense is that they got burned pretty bad by the initial adopters who found they couldn't charge at every CHAdeMO station. In some cases people had 1 station in mind along their regular route and if that didn't work then they bought and paid to install an expensive outlet that didn't meet their needs.
Fortunately there are some 3rd party vendors looking to figure it out.
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Such a shame the pulled the plug because people where too lazy to investigate if the one station on their route was compatible.
Erasmo, it is not necessarily that the customer was lazy. Zero themselves do not have endless money to acquire and test against every CHAdeMO from every manufacturer. You could say that Zero was lazy by letting customers do the testing for them. Or you could say that manufacturers were lazy by not complying with the specification to the extent that Zero's implementation would be compatible.
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Well, I was thinking in terms of advancing the industry, which needs the general public to buy into the EV concept to keep production numbers high enough to expand the technology and keep companies like Zero in business. If people don't buy electric vehicles because of cheap gas and manufacturers can only sell a thousand or so a year to enthusiasts, then that is not going to further the sport, advance the technology , save the planet - and quiet the neighborhood.
It doesn't help that governments seem to be loosing their enthusiasm for electric vehicles. Instead of supporting them through continuing rebates and the like, some states in the West seem to be trying to think of ways to make electric vehicles pay more taxes by raising their vehicle-specific yearly licensing fees. A proposal in California is to have all electric vehicles (no mention was made of exempting motorcycles) pay an additional $100 each year (over and above the usual fee which is based upon initial purchase price) on their registration fee to compensate the State for them not paying gas taxes at the pump. I believe Oregon and Washington have similar plans in mind.
If these legislators would get their heads out of their asses long enough to think about it they would realize that electric motorcycles solve the one thing that they hate the most, loud noise. Instead they create silence. :)
I might add that virtually every IC motorcycle forum that I frequent has a large number of IC motorcycle owners who are inquiring about purchasing a loud exhaust system or after-market muffler to replace the quiet stock system. As near as I can tell, the louder the better. Even many (apparently) mature BMW owners seem to want to save as many lives as they can by making a bunch of racket. Personally, what I like most about my Zero is that it is quiet. :D
And, with regard to legislators and the general public: quiet means "out of mind" and "out of mind" means fewer restrictive motorcycle laws. ;)
Richard, WA is already charging EVs (motorcycles included) this extra $100 per year. It doesn't stop me from riding my Brammo, though.
That said, Washington state says they'll earmark that money to fund EV infrastructure (charging stations). Possibly also road repair. Hopefully, this will be in the form of L2 (J1772) installations in cities and possibly also rest stops, both of which my Brammo could take advantage of.
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I really do not understand that Zero don't want support the riders with the Chademo option. That's one of the main wishes of their customers and they are really deaf for this. Bad attitude.
My sense is that they got burned pretty bad by the initial adopters who found they couldn't charge at every CHAdeMO station. In some cases people had 1 station in mind along their regular route and if that didn't work then they bought and paid to install an expensive outlet that didn't meet their needs.
Fortunately there are some 3rd party vendors looking to figure it out.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Now they got burned pretty bad because of the lack of DC fast charging options. Just early adopters understand that there are some limitations when they communicate this clearly. In Holland, almost all Chademo chargers support 100VDC. Some tests with these chargers were successful and Zero stil doesn't provide this option here. I could live with a limited number of Chademo chargers. And we don't have an insane culture of take others to court if we don't like them.
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Now they got burned pretty bad because of the lack of DC fast charging options. Just early adopters understand that there are some limitations when they communicate this clearly. In Holland, almost all Chademo chargers support 100VDC. Some tests with these chargers were successful and Zero stil doesn't provide this option here. I could live with a limited number of Chademo chargers. And we don't have an insane culture of take others to court if we don't like them.
50 actually. I haven't seen a ChaDeMo in the Netherlands yet that doesn't support the whole 50-500 range.
Erasmo, it is not necessarily that the customer was lazy. Zero themselves do not have endless money to acquire and test against every CHAdeMO from every manufacturer. You could say that Zero was lazy by letting customers do the testing for them. Or you could say that manufacturers were lazy by not complying with the specification to the extent that Zero's implementation would be compatible.
If the charger is in the proper range(50-500V) you should be able to charge. A few small charging-manufacturers decided that 100V was the bottom range for them but that is easily found out, either with the spec sticker on the charger or by ringing the manufacturer.
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Electrics don't need to worry about the gas price it could go down to $10 a barrel and not make a difference. Your savings isn't in gas cost it is in maintenance cost.
Draw up a spreadsheet over five years for your favorite gas bike, and electric, then add maitnence cost of both for 13k mikes a year. Electric will likely pay for itself after that time.
Don't forget to account for time cost if you do the work yourself. Idk about you but my time is valuable.
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Richard, WA is already charging EVs (motorcycles included) this extra $100 per year. It doesn't stop me from riding my Brammo, though.
That said, Washington state says they'll earmark that money to fund EV infrastructure (charging stations). Possibly also road repair. Hopefully, this will be in the form of L2 (J1772) installations in cities and possibly also rest stops, both of which my Brammo could take advantage of.
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My complaint is that electric motorcycles are being charged the same flat $100 per year as auto EVs, even though electric motorcycles very likely travel only a fraction of the miles that an EV auto driver will and cause much less wear and tear on the roadway system - which granted isn't all that much to begin with. It just doesn't seem fair to me, especially as electric motorcycles make up such a small number of the vehicles in the state. I think they should have been exempted from the EV yearly registration charge until the numbers of electric motorcycles at least reach more than a few hundred, or so. ???
Not only will the state not get enough funds to paint a mile of center-line from the EV motorcycle registration fee, but you would think the legislators would appreciate having a class of motorcycles that are quiet and don't shake the neighborhood while saving lives as they pass by. ::)
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I met with two Energica Ego riders at a Fastned DC charger. It is quite amazing to witness how fast these things charge. It felt like we had only a short conversation when they got back on the bikes and left.
I was so surprised to see that they were at 90% charge already! They arrived with 30 something percent.
The were doing a tour of 900 kilometres in a single day...
Fast charging rocks!
Proof:
(http://40.media.tumblr.com/0f2fcdd687d845e4d3fdc702856a68e2/tumblr_ntverlJtcD1qzlryio1_1280.jpg)