ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2013+ => Topic started by: Pprior on March 14, 2014, 10:30:44 PM
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Background: I'm mid 40's rode a 400cc honda back in the 80s for about 6 years as primary transportation but haven't ridden since. Considering getting a motorcycle and love the idea of electric.
Cost however is scary. My other consideration would probably be a smaller BMW touring bike which would give me range benefit. The biggest concern I have with current zero (considering the ds) is that I have trips that are about 200 miles highway and so I couldn't use it there
So in a few years (3-5?) I assume battery technology will be there for that kind of trip. But the trade/sale value of the 2014 will then be probably tiny - 10-20%?
Compare with value retained by the BMW over that time and I will be likely losing many thousands
Is my thinking off? Ultimately is this just a luxury purchase? Do most of you buy a new model every few years? These seem more like disposable consumer goods like computers which doesn't fit my thrifty nature well.
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Depreciation is a problem on these bikes due to rapid innovations as you know. The 2011 Zero S and before had small batteries, brushed motors (with questionable reliability), and a top speed of 65 mph or so. 3 years later the same model is greatly improved with a newly designed brushless ac motor, 95 mph top speed, much larger batteries, etc. This made the 2011 nearly obsolete. 2012 was when there was a huge improvement in design and capability. Since 2012, the improvements have been less dramatic and depreciation is a little less dramatic. I own a 2013, but if I owned a 2011, I would trade it in. If I owned a 2012, I would keep it rather than go with a new 2014. The way to decrease your costs with these bikes is to run them a lot. Put many miles on them...then your per mile cost goes down. If you commute say 40 miles a day, that's easy to do. Also if you just like to ride a lot, it will put miles on the bike. I don't think it is a good investment for someone who just rides 1000 miles a year, but if you ride 20,000 miles a year, then the depreciation and initial cost are much less significant.
If you want a good, but cheap commuter and touring bike, look at the Ninja 300. It is a remarkable bike considering the price. If it is like the Ninja 250r it replaces, the depreciation will be about the lowest in the industry.
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If you intend to sell the bike, then e-bike can be an issue. But
a) Smaller models (XU) make the investment less risky
b) The pleasure is different - if you can afford this differenciation
c) The second hand market will probably develop as the market extends
Plus the high depreciation could play in your favor : if you are cost conscious, you should look for a bargain price on a used Zero. The more people do this, the highest the second hand market will be !
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If depreciation scares you don't buy ANYTHING new that has tires and an engine. It all falls off a cliff for resale.
If it is a big issue look on the used market. There are some great deals now on ZF9 DS or S models and they are great motorcycles.
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Typically I manage depreciation costs by keeping vehicles long enough for it not to matter as much. But I see upgrade fever being much more an issue with these vs a traditional ice model
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If you can meet your range goals with a current model upgrade fever should not be much of an issue. The motor/controller side of the equation is mature now and these bikes are great motorcycles with excellent ride and control characteristics now. A 2012 ZF9 will go a long ways for most riders and any 13 or 14 will go farther.
More range will come but it is going to be a while I am guessing.
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I don't think older models would have the range I need as well. I've been following for several years and the 2014 is the first year that would meet minimum needs
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I guess you're looking at the ZF14.2. I also guess you're looking at frequent riding (where an electric bike makes a lot of sense), as opposed to only long weekend trips (where an electric bike doesn't, IMO).
Better and cheaper batteries will help in the future - in particular large packs that can accept a high-power charge rate - but production bikes are presently limited by a lack of fast-charging infrastructure. That's something I would expect to see develop further over the next several years, as hopefully the stupid CHAdeMO vs J1772 fight will cease to become a distraction.
Consider what would be better: a bike with 106 miles of highway range that charges in 10 hours (current ZF14.2 + 20%) or a bike with 88 miles of highway that charges in 1 hour, assuming charge points were well-distributed and convenient.
I agree with dkw12002. Figure out how many miles you're likely to put on a bike, look at estimated costs for both your desired gas and electric bikes, figure out how much value you place on the unique characteristics of each bike, and then see which works better for you.
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I did have this dilemma. But here in Quebec I could not find a used Zero for sale. Buying used vehicle is definitely the best way to save money, if you know how to evaluate the vehicles you are looking for. In my case I bought a Prius 2010 180000 km for 12500 CAD$, it was really cheap here. I knew I would have some repairs to do in the following months and now I have 2 front wheel bearings to replace (I do it myself with my father). Even with those, the car is still a bargain.
So, if you don't want to spend additional money for the thrill of an electric vehicle, you should definitely look for a used Zero (2011, 2012). If you like it you could then, in 2015, buy a Zero 2013 or 2014. This will cost a lot less than buying a new Zero 2014, I'm pretty sure of that.
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My use would be primary short trips of 10 mi or so one way. Weekly or twice weekly of up to 45-60 mi one way. Intermittent desire for 70-90 mi trips which current models wouldn't provide. I don't have time to charge enroute. Where does one search for used models for sale?
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To be honest Pprior, as much as I love EV's and would recommend one to anyone, if your primary concern is value for money you are unlikely to be satisfied judging by your monthly mileage. dkw hit the nail on the head, get the miles in or look elsewhere.
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If you count buy a BMW but if you listen to your heart buy a Zero and get a big smile on your face :-)
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It's hard because nearest dealer is a three hour drive so I can't easily just get a feel for the electric bike. How does the ds do with a passenger on back?
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When I calculated out the cost of the 2013 S 11.4 I was comparing it to a 'new' used ninja 250 to replace mine which has about 50k miles on it.
If I include my time in the calculation in relation to maintenance and prorated that time the electric bike's cost was surpassed by the ninja 250 in 5 years of riding if riding 13k a year.
Frankly I didn't expect this at all and I went easy on the estimated time I spend working on my bike. If you would like I can duplicate the google drive spreadsheet for you to edit and you can enter in your own values to see what comes out.
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Is that based on reliability or normal routine maintenance? Not a mechanical kind of guy. I don't want to work on a bike just ride it. I assumed a new BMW cruiser wouldn't need any routine tinkering.
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I've been on both side of this issue. I've found used bikes with low miles for a very good price and I've purchased new bikes - only to lose money when I sold them later. It really just depends on your personal situation (needs, finances, etc.)
I agree that electric bikes depreciate more quickly - simply because of the fast pace of EV innovation. It is analogous to buying a new computer every 4 or 5 years - they become obsolete too quickly - but you need the new one with the bigger hard drive and faster processor, and if you keep waiting for the next big breakthrough - you might never feel that the time is right....
I bought a 2012 ZF9 when it first became available - thinking that it would be a long time before the next big breakthrough... boy was I wrong! I love my bike, but the battery capacity increased from 9 kWh to 11 kWh in one year, then from 11 kWh to 14 kWh the next! Yes, it's hard to imagine that this pace can continue from year to year, but who knows?
I have a great idea! - why don't you buy my 2012 at the end of this year so I can buy a 2015? ;)
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Is that based on reliability or normal routine maintenance? Not a mechanical kind of guy. I don't want to work on a bike just ride it. I assumed a new BMW cruiser wouldn't need any routine tinkering.
That was based on everything in the manual, shocks, tires, brakes, chains/sprockets, fuel cost , valves, oil, filters, you name it I do it on my little 250. They really are easy bikes to work on and this is coming from someone who never worked on a bike before this one.
The little ninja 250 pregen came down to about $0.1133 per mile and at 96k miles you have to fork out 500 for a new engine or buy another bike.
The 2013S came to about $0.0319 per mile no clue what modern BMW would cost per mile but someone wrote up a nice article here http://www.epinions.com/content_4146897028?sb=1 (http://www.epinions.com/content_4146897028?sb=1)
Here is a thread on BMW owners talking about Cost of ownership http://www.bmwmoa.org/forum/showthread.php?38157-Annual-Maintenance-Costs (http://www.bmwmoa.org/forum/showthread.php?38157-Annual-Maintenance-Costs)
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One other concern: the zero models don't have abs - never had that on my old bike obviously but safety is of course more important now in my older years. Is this missing feature a real concern. And do you see zero adding such a feature in the near future?
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I believe that Zero will be forced to add ABS to their 2015 models in order to market them in Europe. So I would expect this feature to show up on all of their bikes next year.
It seems like every time I visit my BMW dealer for servicing, it costs me an average of $600. My very basic and non-computerized, Triumph set me back $850 for its 24K mile servicing. If you let the dealer perform IC motorcycle maintenance, instead of doing the work yourself, it is going to be quite expensive. ::) That is what I really like about the Zero. Periodic maintenance costs are nil. I rode my 2012 Zero S for two years and 8,300 miles and never spent a dime in the dealer's service department - which made me feel a little guilty. ;)
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Well I definitely won't be doing service myself. It sounds like a 2015 zero will be in my future. Bummed I will have to wait another year but it sounds like that makes the best sense
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If you are a spendthrift and COO (Cost Of Ownership) is a concern run away from BMW. It is easy to accidentally spend $3,000 on some random BMW maintenance happening and everything with that beautiful little round logo on it costs a lot of money. They are great bikes to ride but they are not inexpensive to own and if you don't spin your own wrenches you will pay dearly for your dealer to do it at a premium. Hans does not work cheap.
Once you get over the initial purchase price of a Zero COO is extremely low and that will appeal to your spendthrift nature. Routine maintenance almost doesn't exist and the main costs are consumable items like tires, belts, and brake pads. I rode a 2012 DS for 6,500 miles and it only cost me a tire and the tire was low cost. The cost of rolling a Zero is much much lower / mile than any ICE if you discount purchase price. If you want a good purchase price on a Zero don't buy the latest greatest one, buy used or a last year model right when the new year models are introduced. That is the way that I have bought both of my Zeros and I got great buys on them both times.
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Where did you find used models? Maybe I buy a used one now and then a 15 or 16 in a couple years. I'm in ohio and I doubt very many available locally. As I said its a three hour drive just to get to a dealer
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My dealer has a 2012 DS on the showroom floor, but they are located in Daly City, CA (at the SF south city limit). No doubt they would be happy to sell it and ship it to you. (I would negotiate on the price, though. Or perhaps you could pay their price in exchange for free shipping.) This photo is from last Wednesday.
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Pprior - here's another perspective
If you're not going to work on the bike yourself, and the nearest dealer is ~ 3hours away, do you have a way of getting the bike to your dealer, and do you have the 6 hours needed for the round trip if something goes wrong (and 2*6 if the bike has to stay at the dealers, obviously)? Otherwise, if something goes wrong with the Zero - even under warranty - you've got to deal with the costs of transporting the bike to the dealer. If you're unlucky with your Zero you'll have reliability issues - that's my personal experience with a 2012 XU, and it's influencing my comment. In theory, the cost of running a Zero should be appreciably less than an ICE bike. In practice, it might not turn out that way.
As for ABS, motorcycle brakes have improved a lot since the mid-80s. Even the itty-bitty front brake on an XU is better than your old Honda's brakes. Tire choice is more likely to be an issue if you're worried about stopping.
If you believe in the concept of electric motorcycles, then consider a Zero. If you want a bike for transport, don't want to work on it yourself, and are worried about costs and depreciation, find a second hand ICE bike that's been well maintained, and get that. If you can do a bit of wrenching yourself, or can find a bunch of airhead folks locally - the advice given in the epinions piece that Burton links to is worth considering
<Find a used airhead and learn to repair it yourself. It'll keep it's resale value and you’ll spend a lot less on parts and repairs over time.>
Peter