ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2012 and older => Topic started by: Richard230 on October 23, 2012, 09:16:58 PM
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No doubt most of us think about Zero's product design/development/marketing approach every time we buy, or think about buying, one of their motorcycles. Zero is advancing their technology rapidly, with huge improvements every year. But this makes it tough on their recent customers and their dealers who buy (or sell) the latest and greatest electric motorcycle, only to discover that the next model to come out in a few months has better performance and design, potentially making their current bike a bit of a dog and reducing its resale value substantially - making it tougher to buy that next shinny new super model. This can turn you into a troll, waiting for the next fatter billy goat to cross the bridge, instead of eating the one in front of you and if you wait too long you will starve to death. ;)
On the other hand, you have the Brammo approach. They spend years developing a new electric motorcycle model, thereby making everyone wait until it is finally perfect before selling the model to the public. With that long a period between new models, when you finally purchase the bike, you are relatively assured that its resale value and geek factor will remain relatively stable for several years, until the next new product can be designed, fully developed and manufactured at a slow and steady pace.
Personally, I think that Zero's current method is the best one for the future of the electric motorcycle market at this time, even if it does tend to drive away some customers, or make them feel like they are taking a financial bath if they decide to buy a Zero. By taking chances by rapidly developing the technology, Zero is also taking a big risk by having their customers be the beta testers for their new designs and not every customer will appreciate being put in that position - especially when something goes wrong, like the "glitch". While, I am really impressed with the way Zero deals with problems like this, considering how small the company is, it does make it tough on both the customer and their dealers to have to deal with a product that might not be fully baked.
Still, this is the only way to rapidly advance the technology that doesn't really exist right now. Zero's approach really kicks the ball into the air, but sometimes it comes down on the customer's head.
So which approach do you think is the best for the customer and for the future of the electric motorcycle manufacturer and the electric motorcycle market? The Zero method of kicking the ball into the air and hoping to hit the goal quickly, or the Brammo method of keeping the ball on the ground to be sure it gets there? I think you could make an argument for each approach.
And then we have the major motorcycle manufacturers who seem to be waiting for someone else, like Zero or Brammo, to develop the technology, infrastructure and customer base for them before actually moving in to swoop up the crumbs. ::)
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I agree Richard. I think pushing the lastest technology and improvements every year is good. But you are absolutely correct, the costly recalls and issues after bikes are in customers hands and the uncomfortable inconvenience and frustration this causes is the downside.
If I can get a 2013 soon enough, I'm pretty sure I could find most problems there could be in the first 5000 miles or so or about a month to 6 weeks, whichever is first. At least that's how it worked with the 2012. Maybe I should extend that offer that to them as it would be a win win for everyone. Surely they have one that is somewhat ready now I'd think.
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No guarantees that a longer release cycle will have zero - or even fewer - bugs .. after all, Brammo is developing a significantly more complex powertrain.
When technology is improving very rapidly, spending significant amounts of time refining a design can cause you to be left behind. I feel like the Enertia Plus is at that point now; it was competitive with the 2012 Zero bikes (halfway between the XU and S), but against the 2013s it is somewhat less competitive. XU has a higher top end, is cheaper, and may offer similar (or better) real world range.
Likewise, the Empulse (IMO) was quite a ways ahead of the 2012 Zero models, albeit also more expensive. The 2013 Zeros have caught up in power and offer the tradeoff of very fast offboard charging vs slow onboard charging. Brammo had a significant range and power advantage over the 2012 $14k model, partly justifying its higher price.. but no longer does vs the 2013 $14k model.
If Brammo continues to sell the Empulse in 2014 and 2015 with no design changes, then they will need to reduce the price over time as Zero releases annual refreshes. The Empulse is a very solid base and per Wes Siler's comments seems like it could easily handle more power .. and its Sevcon Size 6 controller is hardly being tapped .. so that may be the approach they take. Fewer complete powertrain overhauls vs Zero (In 2013 Zero will have used 3 different battery cells, 3 significantly different motors, and 2 significantly different controllers in the span of 3 years), but perhaps small iterations.
Agree with your first point about you have to jump in some time. Just like with computers.. if you wait for the knee of the curve to appear you may be waiting a long time.
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If I were an investor in e-motos, I would certainly prefer Zero's approach. It gives you more exposure test the market and gives the company some real cash flow to help with the burn rate. And, as a buyer of e-motos the "big bet" approach with Brammo, taking years to develop the product burning through more and more capital would scare me. I don't know who is backing them, but unless they have deep pockets and lots of patience, it is a harrowing road to hoe.
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No doubt most of us think about Zero's product design/development/marketing approach every time we buy, or think about buying, one of their motorcycles. Zero is advancing their technology rapidly, with huge improvements every year. But this makes it tough on their recent customers and their dealers who buy (or sell) the latest and greatest electric motorcycle, only to discover that the next model to come out in a few months has better performance and design, potentially making their current bike a bit of a dog and reducing its resale value substantially - making it tougher to buy that next shinny new super model. This can turn you into a troll, waiting for the next fatter billy goat to cross the bridge, instead of eating the one in front of you and if you wait too long you will starve to death. ;)
On the other hand, you have the Brammo approach. They spend years developing a new electric motorcycle model, thereby making everyone wait until it is finally perfect before selling the model to the public. With that long a period between new models, when you finally purchase the bike, you are relatively assured that its resale value and geek factor will remain relatively stable for several years, until the next new product can be designed, fully developed and manufactured at a slow and steady pace.
Personally, I think that Zero's current method is the best one for the future of the electric motorcycle market at this time, even if it does tend to drive away some customers, or make them feel like they are taking a financial bath if they decide to buy a Zero. By taking chances by rapidly developing the technology, Zero is also taking a big risk by having their customers be the beta testers for their new designs and not every customer will appreciate being put in that position - especially when something goes wrong, like the "glitch". While, I am really impressed with the way Zero deals with problems like this, considering how small the company is, it does make it tough on both the customer and their dealers to have to deal with a product that might not be fully baked.
Still, this is the only way to rapidly advance the technology that doesn't really exist right now. Zero's approach really kicks the ball into the air, but sometimes it comes down on the customer's head.
So which approach do you think is the best for the customer and for the future of the electric motorcycle manufacturer and the electric motorcycle market? The Zero method of kicking the ball into the air and hoping to hit the goal quickly, or the Brammo method of keeping the ball on the ground to be sure it gets there? I think you could make an argument for each approach.
And then we have the major motorcycle manufacturers who seem to be waiting for someone else, like Zero or Brammo, to develop the technology, infrastructure and customer base for them before actually moving in to swoop up the crumbs. ::)
Having spent my career in the technology biz, I guarantee you that failure to deliver is no clever business strategy on the part of Brammo.
The Enertia was so much less than Brammo advertised that dealers refused to sell it, or so local dealers tell me. Best Buy gave up on the Enertia after less than two years despite Best Buy Capital having invested $10 million into Enertia production. BBC also skipped the B round. Brammo sold fewer than 50 Enertias.
When Zero leap-frogged Brammo with the 2012 Zeros, Brammo came up with the Enertia Plus to try to catch up but has still not delivered that product. At this point it's safe to say that Brammo has abandoned the Plus and has bet the farm on the Empulse. They are hoping to capture the high end of the e-motorcycle market and leave the mid-range to Zero. But every year that they fail to deliver the Empulse gives Zero time to iterate on all aspects of the product. That is how products improve in the real world, not in gigantic leaps as you suggest is Brammo's strategy. By the time Brammo delivers the Empulse, if ever, it will be behind Zero in many areas of refinement that come with repeated iteration on design, and possibly in the only positive area of differentiation: speed and power.
I have no doubt that Brammo has good engineers and marketing people. The problem can be traced Brammo's leadership. Mechanic put it best over on the Elmoto forums:
Let’s look at Bramscher’s last four business ventures;
- The Rogue Super car- Many, many promises- EPIC Fail (never even turned a wheel)
- The Atom Ariel business- Gone
- The Carbon Fiber manufacturing business- Fail
- The Brammo Motorcycle (10’s of millions invested, 6+ models promised, 1 delivered)- ugly, sold < 50, Failing
Let’s look at announcements/plans
- Deal with Best Buy- EPIC Fail
- Deal with Flextronics- not relevant and not functioning
- New corporate HQ (2 new buildings, test track)- poorest use of funds imaginable
- 6 speed gear box- marketing smoke and mirrors that is a technical embarrassment
- Worst of all- standing firm that the Enertia “scooter” is capable of freeway speed/range vehicle (almost killed someone) EPIC FAILURE
Let’s look at the positives
- More tweets than any other start-up
- Err… that’s it… O wait there are the Brammo Babes (a desperate act of improved self worth and blatant confidence inspiring tactic by the big man himself. Must make all the teams wives proud that Brammo’s greatest publicity accomplishment to date was to hire some models for a few hours)
http://www.elmoto.net/showthread.php?2020-2012-Brammo-(Enertia-Plus-amp-Empulse)-Delivery-schedule/page7 (http://www.elmoto.net/showthread.php?2020-2012-Brammo-(Enertia-Plus-amp-Empulse)-Delivery-schedule/page7)
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As a customer, all I know is that I'm riding my Zero, minor warts and all, and I'd be still waiting on an Empulse. I'm not sure there's any good way to break into a market like this from an investor point of view, but if it were my money I'd prefer Zero's approach there, too.
That said , if the Empulse turns out to be trouble-free and readily available,they will take some of the high end away from Zero. But new riders and dirt enthusiasts will undoubtedly prefer Zero's pricing and wider range of offerings.
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The Enertia was so much less than Brammo advertised that dealers refused to sell it, or so local dealers tell me. Best Buy gave up on the Enertia after less than two years despite Best Buy Capital having invested $10 million into Enertia production. BBC also skipped the B round. Brammo sold fewer than 50 Enertias.
I've seen the 50 unit sales number thrown around before. Not sure I quite believe it - there are approximately 20 Brammo owners that have posted at one time or another via the Brammo Owner Forum. The last count I did on the 2012 owner registration thread here was around 25 owners, and the number might go up to 30-35 if you count people who have posted here indicating ownership but have not posted to the owner thread.
Claiming > 40% of Brammo owners post on the primary unofficial forum when < 10% of 2012 Zero owners post to the primary unofficial forum seems like a bit of a stretch. But it could be true, nonetheless - Zero certainly has more international exposure and sales than Brammo did.
I'm curious how you think the Enertia was less than Brammo advertised. Let's not forget the contemporary Zero street bike (http://web.archive.org/web/20090628115144/http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/zero-s-specs.php) claimed 60 miles of range from a 3.6 kWh battery, using the same bullshit maximum capacity rating still in use today.
When Zero leap-frogged Brammo with the 2012 Zeros, Brammo came up with the Enertia Plus to try to catch up but has still not delivered that product. At this point it's safe to say that Brammo has abandoned the Plus and has bet the farm on the Empulse. They are hoping to capture the high end of the e-motorcycle market and leave the mid-range to Zero. But every year that they fail to deliver the Empulse gives Zero time to iterate on all aspects of the product. That is how products improve in the real world, not in gigantic leaps as you suggest is Brammo's strategy. By the time Brammo delivers the Empulse, if ever, it will be behind Zero in many areas of refinement that come with repeated iteration on design, and possibly in the only positive area of differentiation: speed and power.
Revisionist history? The Enertia Plus is clearly an iteration on the original Enertia design .. not a response to the Zero bikes, and certainly not a response to the 2012 Zeros when the E+ was announced nearly two years ago : \
I'm mystified by Brammo's continued failure to deliver on the Enertia Plus, but I can only think the holdups could be manufacturing issues or battery supply issues. They use the same cells in the Enertia Plus as the Empulse - I expect them to deliver on both bikes at once.
At least by specifications, the Empulse is slightly faster than the 2013 Zero S both in acceleration and top speed. I'm looking forward to a comparison test of the two bikes - it'll be a good comparison of revolution vs iterative evolution.
I have no doubt that Brammo has good engineers and marketing people. The problem can be traced Brammo's leadership. Mechanic put it best over on the Elmoto forums:
Let’s look at Bramscher’s last four business ventures;
- The Rogue Super car- Many, many promises- EPIC Fail (never even turned a wheel)
- The Atom Ariel business- Gone
- The Carbon Fiber manufacturing business- Fail
- The Brammo Motorcycle (10’s of millions invested, 6+ models promised, 1 delivered)- ugly, sold < 50, Failing
Let’s look at announcements/plans
- Deal with Best Buy- EPIC Fail
- Deal with Flextronics- not relevant and not functioning
- New corporate HQ (2 new buildings, test track)- poorest use of funds imaginable
- 6 speed gear box- marketing smoke and mirrors that is a technical embarrassment
- Worst of all- standing firm that the Enertia “scooter†is capable of freeway speed/range vehicle (almost killed someone) EPIC FAILURE
Let’s look at the positives
- More tweets than any other start-up
- Err… that’s it… O wait there are the Brammo Babes (a desperate act of improved self worth and blatant confidence inspiring tactic by the big man himself. Must make all the teams wives proud that Brammo’s greatest publicity accomplishment to date was to hire some models for a few hours)
http://www.elmoto.net/showthread.php?2020-2012-Brammo-(Enertia-Plus-amp-Empulse)-Delivery-schedule/page7 (http://www.elmoto.net/showthread.php?2020-2012-Brammo-(Enertia-Plus-amp-Empulse)-Delivery-schedule/page7)
Oh yeah. Mechanic was the one that came up with the 50 sales units number. Oddly he also never backed up his sales unit claim. Plenty of vitriol, though.
Though I'm disappointed that seven months later Brammo still has not shipped the Empulse or the Enertia Plus, my response there stands.
I agree that their primary failures to date have been of failing to both deliver and communicate with their would-be customers. Their technical chops are top-tier and their prototype racing effort deserves the accolades they have received. But clearly there are significant internal failures (even if the failures stem from suppliers), and those failures smell like mismanagement to me as well.
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As protomech says, it is yet to be seen whether or not the Empulse has less gliches than the 2013 Zeros so I don't think there are really different approaches, just different success rates.
As a customer I don't like the marketing or high early adoption price of either Zero or Brammo but I don't know if it was the same at the birth of the ICE motorcycle at the turn of the last century, it probably was. We'll have to wait a hundred years for our grandchildren or great grandchildren to recover the cost of our early adoption of these bikes, if we keep them.
I think all too often firms underestimate their market, when if they believe in their product all they need to do is be straight about what they are producing and why it costs what it costs, unless they are trying to hide something...
I think lightning's approach would be best - say very little then produce something that will 'knock your socks off'. Having said that both Brammo and Zero are still growing so their approach is working, what do I know?
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i can't say i have the financial/marketing knowledge others have, but it would seem to me that Brammo has continually delayed launching several previously announced products. they could only be doing so to correct problems and/or add/refine features. if they are trying to keep up with the technology curve, that can't be sustainable unless they have an awful lot of spending cash.
even with zero announcing it's new 2013 product line the very fist night i commuted to work on my new 2012, i am thoroughly pleased to have purchased what is to me a very polished bike that's super fun to ride. i am a very technically oriented gadget-head and am used to seeing new products surpass what i have. that's just the way it goes. zero has the right idea. commit to a design, do it right, and sell it.
i might have purchased a Brammo, if there was something worth purchasing available. waiting for that next big thing doesn't work for buyers like me, either.
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I think the Enertia Plus is aimed at the Euro market as a city commuter. Who knows what is going on with the bike right now? Maybe Brammo is waiting for the Hong Kong police to give it a wringing-out to verify its reliability before they put it on sale to the public. ???
A report on the Brammo forum claims that Brammo switched motor manufacturers a few months ago on the production Empulse. That could certainly explain the lag in getting the bike to market this summer, as was originally planned earlier this year.
One thing that both companies are getting is a lot of experience in lightweight, high performance, electric vehicle design experience and knowledge. This knowledge from the "School of Hard Knocks" could be worth a lot to a major corporation that wants to enter the EV field, such as Polaris, who has heavily invested in Brammo. I am not sure who might be lurking in the wings in the Zero zone. But I surmise that their EV knowledge is ultimately worth more than any profits that they might make by selling electric motorcycles, considering the cost of their R&D each year and the low volume of sales compared to most other manufactured products.
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I get the feeling that ZeroSinMA doesn't like Brammo? :D
I agree with CliC: As a customer this spring I was ready to buy an emoto - the ZeroS was "good enough", available locally and all Brammo had was a website and a promise. So I'm on a Zero S. Whatever that says for the marketing differences of the two companies.
Regarding Richard's assessment about "Customers being the beta testers" I certainly feel that way. 3 recalls, a month in the shop for the glitch, a bad motor, and now going back to the shop to get my fuel gauge issue resolved; all in the first 6 months. :o Yikes. But who knows if Brammo's approach will be any better?
I'm not really feeling "Gosh, I've only had my new bike 6 months and Zero's already obsoleted it". My bike, the '12 SZF6 approximates the '13 XU5.6; the '13 XU is $1000 less, same power, same range but I don't like the styling. However I can see the '12 SZF9 is outclassed by the '13 SZF8.5; same price, but way more power, better charger, cleaner and nicer looking.
Like Richard, it does seem probable that Zero will be bought out in the future.
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Brammo resembles Vectrix in a way.
Vectrix started the E-scooter development in 1996 and delivered the first bikes in 2006. That is 10 years development.
They did not survive because the battery technology they used had become obsolete and their implementation of it (in order to get some range) caused many battery failures. Their bike is still a great product by the way. I drove the Vectrix and BMW E-scooters at Intermot this year and although the BMW is faster, the Vectrix handles better and has the cool throttle. So those 10 years of development still count.
But sales were dissapointing and battery replacements under warrenty caused them to go Chapter 11.
So:
Brammo needs to hit their sales targets (which are set unrealisticly high) and avoid product defects if they want to stay alive.
But good engineering will last longer...
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I had a chat with some senior HD (as in Harley Davidson) guys - they were very interested in the bike and is application as well as what the rider thinks. In particular keeping both bikes or eventually reducing to one only (as in the Zero). Asked as well if it is more a utility for me or more than that. I mentioned it is great fun to ride, throw around etc. So in fact a bit more than just a utility.
As for Zero, believe they are on the right way to keep the bike simple, deliver a great commuter / run about bike. Longer term range and super fast charging will come anyway. If Zero can focus on what they have, create a culture around it. And really they are best positioned for this with focusing on the electrics only. Other makers, like KTM or BMW are having their positioning and struggle to place the electrics properly - it will always be a fight vs their "traditional" bikes.
anyhow, want more for Oz !
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I've seen the 50 unit sales number thrown around before. Not sure I quite believe it - there are approximately 20 Brammo owners that have posted at one time or another via the Brammo Owner Forum. The last count I did on the 2012 owner registration thread here was around 25 owners, and the number might go up to 30-35 if you count people who have posted here indicating ownership but have not posted to the owner thread.
Claiming > 40% of Brammo owners post on the primary unofficial forum when < 10% of 2012 Zero owners post to the primary unofficial forum seems like a bit of a stretch. But it could be true, nonetheless - Zero certainly has more international exposure and sales than Brammo did.
I'm curious how you think the Enertia was less than Brammo advertised. Let's not forget the contemporary Zero street bike (http://web.archive.org/web/20090628115144/http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/zero-s-specs.php) claimed 60 miles of range from a 3.6 kWh battery, using the same bullshit maximum capacity rating still in use today.
When I started looking at the product available in this market in 2010 I could not imagine why anyone would want a e-motorcycle that looks like a giant throat lozenge on wheels but when I saw a string of posts on Best Buy's site from Brammo employees, friends, and relatives with no negative or real data whatsoever I knew the thing was a POS. Brammo showed up at a local dealer with two bikes but could not get them working to demo them. To this day they won't look at Zero either because they figure all e-motorcycles are POS. Thanks, Brammo.
Revisionist history? The Enertia Plus is clearly an iteration on the original Enertia design .. not a response to the Zero bikes, and certainly not a response to the 2012 Zeros when the E+ was announced nearly two years ago : \
You still don't get it. Brammo announces products. Zero actually builds the products they announce and ships them. For revenue.
Who announced what when? Who cares?
I'm mystified by Brammo's continued failure to deliver on the Enertia Plus, but I can only think the holdups could be manufacturing issues or battery supply issues. They use the same cells in the Enertia Plus as the Empulse - I expect them to deliver on both bikes at once.
I'm not mystified. Look at the track record of the guy who's running Brammo.
At least by specifications, the Empulse is slightly faster than the 20
Let's say Brammo actually finally ships the Empulse in 2013. If Zero maintains their proven rate of annual product improvement then by the fall of 2013 Zero will announce, say, a 75HP 150+ mile range bike to ship in 2014, giving Brammo siz to nine months of market advantage at the high end. They've already lost it at the mid-range by not shipping a Enertia Plus to compete with a 2012 Zero.
Referring back to the original thesis of this thread, is it Brammo's "strategy" to then give all of the market over to Zero for another two or three years as they have for the past two years while Brammo works its magic on coming up with a revolutionary product for 2017?
My point is that the revolution versus evolution thesis of this thread is preposterous.
The IC bikers on this forum have to get their heads around the fact that e-moto is a tech business, unlike the ICE bike market. The development cycle is driven by improvements in battery tech, drivetrain, usability. As in the mobile computer business, miss a development cycle and you're dead. As I've said, Brammo is already dead, they just don't know it yet and apparently neither do a fair number of ICE bike folks who don't understand that this is a different game.
Revolution vs iterative evolution? No. Fail versus win.
Oh yeah. Mechanic was the one that came up with the 50 sales units number. Oddly he also never backed up his sales unit claim. Plenty of vitriol, though.
Though I'm disappointed that seven months later Brammo still has not shipped the Empulse or the Enertia Plus, my response there stands.
I agree that their primary failures to date have been of failing to both deliver and communicate with their would-be customers. Their technical chops are top-tier and their prototype racing effort deserves the accolades they have received. But clearly there are significant internal failures (even if the failures stem from suppliers), and those failures smell like mismanagement to me as well.
It's all about management: the right people and organization for a new industry as the technology develops.
Zero's investors by hiring Walker actually understand the dynamics of the industry and the kind of leadership that's needed to break out.
To hire Bramscher and leave him in charge? Geez. Relatively speaking, Brammo's investors are cavemen scratching in the dirt with sticks.
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I get the feeling that ZeroSinMA doesn't like Brammo? :D
I agree with CliC: As a customer this spring I was ready to buy an emoto - the ZeroS was "good enough", available locally and all Brammo had was a website and a promise. So I'm on a Zero S. Whatever that says for the marketing differences of the two companies.
Regarding Richard's assessment about "Customers being the beta testers" I certainly feel that way. 3 recalls, a month in the shop for the glitch, a bad motor, and now going back to the shop to get my fuel gauge issue resolved; all in the first 6 months. :o Yikes. But who knows if Brammo's approach will be any better?
I'm not really feeling "Gosh, I've only had my new bike 6 months and Zero's already obsoleted it". My bike, the '12 SZF6 approximates the '13 XU5.6; the '13 XU is $1000 less, same power, same range but I don't like the styling. However I can see the '12 SZF9 is outclassed by the '13 SZF8.5; same price, but way more power, better charger, cleaner and nicer looking.
Like Richard, it does seem probable that Zero will be bought out in the future.
I don't know anyone at Brammo. It's nothing personal.
It's not that I don't like Brammo it's that I dislike companies that behave the way Brammo does.
As an organization they are incompetent and dishonest.
Not the engineering team. They may be excellent. Maybe Zero can hire some of their guys. I don't know why they haven't mutinied or gone on strike by now. Or maybe they have and that's why there's no product.
The bloggers and motorcycle rags won't call them out because they don't want to risk the advertising revenue.
Someone has to call a spade a spade.
I have owned two Zero's and put thousands of miles on them. Once -- once -- I had one no start from a stop. Shut off and restarted and that was it.
Compared to ICE bikes and early Macs I've owned each of the two Zero's I've owned have been as reliable as a toaster.
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I see your point about revolution vs. evolution. Brammo will not be able to wait until 2017 to introduce their next bike, and if Zero continues at their current rate the 2014s will likely underscore that for Brammo. Brammo has a competent base platform (frame, suspension, brakes, wheels) in their favor, though they'll have to hold the line on price. If I had to guess, I'd predict they'll drop the gearbox and up the battery voltage.
Best case of course is for both companies to remain viable, as competition is healthy. Worst (and, unfortunately, not improbable) case is for both to disappear. If necessary, a WP or Sachs and Brembo upgrade for my DS to keep it going wouldn't be the end of the world :)
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ZeroSinMA
Adjust your thoughts just a bit about the ICE guys. I was/am one (the S1000RR sits next to the 9DS) and finally made the move when the utility was sufficient to make electric an option. I also ran a tech business. I believe there are a number of tech types (read non-ICE) that will pick up Zeros. However, I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of the bikes Zero sells in the future will be to ICE types and not pure tech types. If I am correct, the business approach will need to be a hybrid of tech/ICE. I do not think Zero can afford to ignore things like total cost of ownership and lack of secondary market support unless the business model is to prove technology then sell out. If it is, then iterate on and toss your customers to the weeds. Your evenual buyer will be buying technology and not customer base.
For the record, I've got 5K miles on my bike. Zero showed up at my hangar to do the battery board and brake switch recall before I was aware of any issue. Likewise, I just had the speed controller programmed at my now local dealer. Again, problem addressed before I was aware there was a problem. In short, great bike, great support and fantastic handling of issues before they even showed up on my scope.
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great feedback. I run into senior Harley guys (as I ride one, or rather have one sitting in the garage). Initially it was, ah yeah the Brammo etc. etc. and I showed them the real deal, using it day-in / day-out and funny enough the Oz MD of HD got the hang of it first - so is it a utility for you or more ? do u still ride your harley ?
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I know you all are probably tired of hearing this from me by now, but I just want to keep saying it. Every dirt rider I talk to I say; if you ever ride electric on the dirt trails, you won't want to ever ride a gas bike there again. 8)
That is certainly what happened to me!
Trikester
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In today's newspaper's business section was an article titled “Quick revamp of iPad leaves some miffedâ€, written by Heather Somerville of the Bay Area News Group. The article claims that “there has been a backlash from consumers who say that the short life span of Apple products is becoming wearisome – and expensiveâ€. I don't keep up on high tech gadgets like iPads, as I have enough trouble just trying to make a phone call from my flip-open cell phone, but it appears that Apple has revamped their latest full-size iPad just 7 months after releasing the third generation of the device.
The article says that many customers were “irked that they just spent $500 on what they thought was a cutting-edge tablet, only to watch it fall to near obsolescence on Tuesdayâ€. One customer was quoted as saying that Apple should have told him that the iPad that he bought on Sunday would be outdated within 48 hours. A poll of about 1400 Apple users by a website showed that 83% of the responders “felt cheated†by the latest iPad announcement.
But the article quotes Stephen Baker, VP of the NPD Group, as saying: “I don't think they (Apple) owe people anything. If the iPad 3 worked for you great two days ago, it still works for you today, so I don't know why you would feel cheatedâ€.
While I don't think there is too much comparison between Zero's electric motorcycle marketing plan and that of Apple's product marketing (don't they wish), I found the statements and comments in this article interesting.
In Zero's case, the important thing is that they continue to support their customers with good warranty and after-purchase service and keep up the R&D pace, even if it means that existing customers bikes don't have the latest performance technology. After all, when they bought it, it was what they wanted and felt that they needed at the time. Just like current iPad users, if it worked then it still works now and frankly, if you were buying most any motorcycle, much less an EV, resale value was probably not at the top of your concerns at the time of purchase.
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In today's newspaper's business section was an article titled “Quick revamp of iPad leaves some miffedâ€, written by Heather Somerville of the Bay Area News Group. The article claims that “there has been a backlash from consumers who say that the short life span of Apple products is becoming wearisome – and expensiveâ€. I don't keep up on high tech gadgets like iPads, as I have enough trouble just trying to make a phone call from my flip-open cell phone, but it appears that Apple has revamped their latest full-size iPad just 7 months after releasing the third generation of the device.
The article says that many customers were “irked that they just spent $500 on what they thought was a cutting-edge tablet, only to watch it fall to near obsolescence on Tuesdayâ€. One customer was quoted as saying that Apple should have told him that the iPad that he bought on Sunday would be outdated within 48 hours. A poll of about 1400 Apple users by a website showed that 83% of the responders “felt cheated†by the latest iPad announcement.
But the article quotes Stephen Baker, VP of the NPD Group, as saying: “I don't think they (Apple) owe people anything. If the iPad 3 worked for you great two days ago, it still works for you today, so I don't know why you would feel cheatedâ€.
While I don't think there is too much comparison between Zero's electric motorcycle marketing plan and that of Apple's product marketing (don't they wish), I found the statements and comments in this article interesting.
In Zero's case, the important thing is that they continue to support their customers with good warranty and after-purchase service and keep up the R&D pace, even if it means that existing customers bikes don't have the latest performance technology. After all, when they bought it, it was what they wanted and felt that they needed at the time. Just like current iPad users, if it worked then it still works now and frankly, if you were buying most any motorcycle, much less an EV, resale value was probably not at the top of your concerns at the time of purchase.
I have enough defunct Apple computers to open an Apple museum but you'll never find me in line with the Apple hive waiting for the doors to open to buy the latest. Apple is famous for using its rabid fans as unwitting beta testers. I long ago learned to give Apple at least one if not two development cycles on a product before buying it. I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone. I own a 3 year old iPad that works just fine for my purposes, have a new MacBook Pro for travel, and typing this on a 2 year old iMac. Maybe I'll buy the latest iPad because so many web sites now run so many scripts and other memory hog programs that they often crash an old iPad.
I applied the same philosophy to Zero. Waited two years before buying my first Zero in 2011 to give Zero time to iron out the bugs. I'll skip a year or two and maybe buy a 2014 or 2015. The 2012 is rock solid.
Granted the $4K - 5K first year depreciation hit is tough to swallow. Once the market matures the resale value should improve.
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I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone.
'Soviet' ended in 1991. Russian technology is the only thing able to cost effectively(a Western pioneered concept) keep us traveling to and from the space station just now.
I applied the same philosophy to Zero. Waited two years before buying my first Zero in 2011 to give Zero time to iron out the bugs. I'll skip a year or two and maybe buy a 2014 or 2015. The 2012 is rock solid.
Not sure I follow ZeroSinMA? 3 year cycles for reliable tech?
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Well, being an Apple product user, you are kind of expected that the next model will be better then the current model. But it just doesn't make sense to keep waiting for the next one, as there will be infinite waiting. So I usually like ZeroSinMa, wait for the second generation so the product is more refine, or buy the last generation at a big discount price.
I found Zero has a similar approach as Apple, which I think is better then see the announcement but never receive the product.
The other motto I always keep is buy it when you need it (or want it) and then use it as much as possible, don't let it just sit around collecting dust and become obsolete. I think this apply to most tech gadgets and so does to Zero.
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The December issue of Motorcyclist magazine contains an article (starting on page 22) where various representatives of the industry attempt to predict what motorcycles will be like in 50 years. Needless to say, there are as many opinions as there are respondents.
Scott Harden, Zero's VP of Marketing has this to say: "Electric motorcycles will become a major player in the motorcycle market. The technology is already relevant, and the improvements over the next 50 years will be astounding. Energy costs, non-existent powertrain maintenance, low emissions, and the way the rider interfaces with the machine - and fellow enthusiasts - through personal communications devices all favor electric motorcycles. As technology improves, electric bikes will go farther, faster, and, most importantly, be more fun to ride than traditional motorcycles."
Perhaps more interesting are comments by Michael Czysz who says that "50 years from now, the MotoGP grid will be all-electric. Today's most advanced electric motors are already better than current MotoGP engines in terms of torque delivery, physical size, engine-braking control and reduced gyroscopic/handling impact. In 50 years, it will not even be close. Where batteries are concerned, charge time will become equal to fill time for gas bikes. Battery energy density may increase two times or even four times in 50 years, but the real breakthrough will be in charging. Carbonized nano-graphite networks, which emulate the structure of bone marrow, ??? will dramatically increase battery surface area and reduce full-charging intervals to minutes, or possibly even seconds."
Finally, in a sidebar describing what the major motorcycle manufacturers are up to when it comes to electric motorcycles: Honda is given credit for their concept RC-E and Kawasaki is said to have filed patent drawings showing two new electric motorcycle designs. One is a full-on, aluminum-framed electric superbike, while the second is along the lines of a battery-powered, tube-framed ER-6. Both use a similar water-cooled electric motor bolted - unusually - to a traditional motorcycle-style, four-speed transmission.
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I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone.
'Soviet' ended in 1991. Russian technology is the only thing able to cost effectively(a Western pioneered concept) keep us traveling to and from the space station just now.
It's not an issue of cost-effectiveness, it's an issue of it happening to fall into gaps between space programs.
Sending a single astronaut into space via a Russian rocket costs $47 to $60 million (depending on what numbers you read).
Amortized over the life of the program, the average cost to launch the Shuttle was $450 million. A typical crew of seven would put the per-seat price at ~$65 million.. so a bit worse than the Russian rockets.
The US is shifting to privatization for low orbit bulk and crew transport. SpaceX says they can send an astronaut to the space station for $20 million.
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Taking a look back to the 70's Honda had about 20 new model changes a year an at lest a couple new engines. They had over 50% of the market share at one point with used Hondas having a larger market share than the rest of the field. It looks like the Zero method is very similar, hopefully it works again.
Also, I wouldn't knock Brammo too much, I got mine in 2009 (#38) and had no issues with it other than having to keep the speed down in the 30's if I wanted to go more than 25 miles. The instrumentation was excellent as you could select programs that showed your kw draw and told you have far you could go with the remaining battery at your current speed - very nice. I was looking forward to the Plus when it was announced and sold mine in 2010 to take advantage of their loyality rebate ($2,500.00) since the larger battery would not upgrade. 2 years of waiting made me happy to still have my ICE bike until a test ride at a local dealer on a Zero S and I made the switch to the Zero. I've been told that my rebate will transfer to the Empulse. So for 2013 I could have a 11kw Zero S for $15,995 or the Empulse for $14,495 which would you choose?
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I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone.
'Soviet' ended in 1991. Russian technology is the only thing able to cost effectively(a Western pioneered concept) keep us traveling to and from the space station just now.
I applied the same philosophy to Zero. Waited two years before buying my first Zero in 2011 to give Zero time to iron out the bugs. I'll skip a year or two and maybe buy a 2014 or 2015. The 2012 is rock solid.
Not sure I follow ZeroSinMA? 3 year cycles for reliable tech?
Not dissing modern Russian tech or even 30 year old Russian IT tech. Top notch. I'm too old and my reference to Soviet military tech is outdated. Substitute the government of any large, bureaucratic, centrally planned economy. As they say, an elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.
Google does a horrid job ripping off Apple's products. My google phone hardly ever worked, never mind seamlessly like an Apple product. Crash, crash, hang, crash, reboot... ridiculous.
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Taking a look back to the 70's Honda had about 20 new model changes a year an at lest a couple new engines. They had over 50% of the market share at one point with used Hondas having a larger market share than the rest of the field. It looks like the Zero method is very similar, hopefully it works again.
Also, I wouldn't knock Brammo too much, I got mine in 2009 (#38) and had no issues with it other than having to keep the speed down in the 30's if I wanted to go more than 25 miles. The instrumentation was excellent as you could select programs that showed your kw draw and told you have far you could go with the remaining battery at your current speed - very nice. I was looking forward to the Plus when it was announced and sold mine in 2010 to take advantage of their loyality rebate ($2,500.00) since the larger battery would not upgrade. 2 years of waiting made me happy to still have my ICE bike until a test ride at a local dealer on a Zero S and I made the switch to the Zero. I've been told that my rebate will transfer to the Empulse. So for 2013 I could have a 11kw Zero S for $15,995 or the Empulse for $14,495 which would you choose?
That'd be an easy call for me. I never buy the V1 first model year of any product. I'd wait for the V2 2014 Empulse if I was stuck on Brammo. But by then 2014 Zero will be shipping V4 2014 bikes with more power and range than Brammo and that might cause me to throw in the towel.
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The 2012 Zeros might as well have been the very first model year. Nevermind that there was a thing called a 2011 S, the 2012s had new motor / controller / BMS / battery.
2013 looks like smaller changes, only new motor and new battery. (BMS is slightly different but still largely the same I bet). Zero has been working on the motor for a while, so it should be 100% solid from the start.
At Daytona, Brammo engineers told me they found and corrected the encoding error in the Sevcon controller some time ago (Empulse uses Size 6 Gen 4 Sevcon vs Zero's Size 4). They've certainly had time to get the bugs worked out on their development and long term test bikes.
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Interesting discussion.
While I have nothing against Brammo for me it was an easy decision. Although I'd had a reservation for the Brammo Empulse since it was first unveiled - I ride a Zero because it was first available. If I'm a "typical" consumer I imagine a lot of folks would make the same decision. By the way, Brammo was promising the Empulse for "summer 2011" when they unveiled it at Laguna Seca in 2010 ( http://youtu.be/kuft3fw-E50 (http://youtu.be/kuft3fw-E50) )- they are not just a few months behind schedule....
s44captain - the cheapest Empuse is $17K, while the top of the line Zero is $16K.
I think there is some overlap between geeks/ICE bike riders/Electric bike riders. I've ridden ICE bikes my whole life (40+ yrs). It was very easy to switch to an electric bike, but just as electric car owners currently have to also have an ICE car for longer trips - I keep my Honda in the garage for just such occasions.
I also have all of the Apple toys, which all just became "obsolete" overnight :o
As far as waiting for the next best thing - I think it's difficult to compare a $15K motorcycle to a $200 iPhone. I don't mind shelling out a couple of hundred bucks every couple of years for the latest pocket gadget, but I must admit I'm quite frustrated at just having purchased a 2012 Zero ZF9, only to find that the '13 has undergone vast improvement. I won't be buying a new one, of course - unless Zero will give me 95% trade-in on my Zero ;-)
Meanwhile - I'll be picking up my ZF9 from the shop tomorrow - hopefully with the "glitch" fixed and the circuit boards waterproofed....
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Hi
I am happy, very happy on my iPhone3 and 2011S. The 2011 does what she does, and well. I ride her a lot around town etc. Range is very good for what I need - great. I might be selling my ICE as I do not get to ride a couple of days out to the country -- that often. So, simply, rent a Ducati or Harley when I feel like it is a better deal. saves me money to upgrade the Zero every 3 years - to stay just of the expensive "hype curve".
as warranty comes of the Zero I might be truing to get into the programming / main board/controller a bit more and tweak things. so all good.
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Hi
I am happy, very happy on my iPhone3 and 2011S. The 2011 does what she does, and well. I ride her a lot around town etc. Range is very good for what I need - great. I might be selling my ICE as I do not get to ride a couple of days out to the country -- that often. So, simply, rent a Ducati or Harley when I feel like it is a better deal. saves me money to upgrade the Zero every 3 years - to stay just of the expensive "hype curve".
as warranty comes of the Zero I might be truing to get into the programming / main board/controller a bit more and tweak things. so all good.
Great discussion. I keep hearing this: "I own 2 - 10 ICE bikes then bought a Zero. Now I ride the Zero for the < 100 mile round trips and ICE for long trips. That's 90% of the time, so I don't really need all these ICE bikes."
I think what's happening is this. We all got used to the hassle of owning and riding an ICE bike. After discovering the no-maintenance, no warm-up, no shifting, no noise convenience of a Zero, riding an ICE is like going back to using an outhouse in winter after getting used to indoor plumbing. I prefer to jump on and ride away without notifying the wife and neighbors. Seems everyone who buys one comes to the same conclusion.
If I'm a product manager for BMW or other big ICE brand reading this forum I'm thinking, "Holy, crap. In 10 years the ICE industry will be selling very few ICE bikes."
If they aren't already thinking of acquisition of Zero they will be by the end of 2013. I hope Zero sticks it out and goes public and stays independent.
BTW, a future race to Buy vs Build in the e-moto space may save Brammo's bacon. An acquirer will be buying tech and engineering talent not marketing/product marketing/sales/distribution.
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My thoughts exactly, ZeroSinMA. But I am getting even less use out of my car. I don't think I have driven it more than about 300 miles since I bought my Zero in February. I sometimes ride my IC bikes just to get the condensation out of the oil and the fuel from going stale.
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oobflye, i have a $2,500.00 Brammo rebate if I want on the Empulse which is what makes the original question interesting...
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a few more plus' for the Zero.... No rotational inertia so the bike flicks nicely. No heat broiling my privates (and everything else) when I stop at a light for more than a minute.
I just can not wait for battery technology to march about an order of magnitude upwards. I know, it is going to take a while but then ebikes will be right on par with the Tesla Model S' utility. When the Model S comes in, the 535i goes!! My ICE bike is already up for sale. Anyone interested in a nice S1000RR?