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Author Topic: Zero 2017  (Read 46932 times)

AndyB.

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #195 on: October 21, 2016, 11:42:45 AM »

Ugh, the announcement is killing me  :o. Last year it was October 15th to announce the 2016s. Funny thing is, I probably won't buy a 2017 cause I'm happy with my 2014. But I'm liking my bike so much, I am super excited to see what is next  ;D. Can't remember a time I was so happy about something since I was a kid waiting to open a Christmas present!
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Francois

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #196 on: October 21, 2016, 01:33:47 PM »

i like so much you comment, we are all the same impatient to see the new model, we are all big kids ;-)
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Francois

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #197 on: October 21, 2016, 01:36:33 PM »

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ericramos1990

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #198 on: October 21, 2016, 06:02:17 PM »

Same here! I've been following this thread every single day for a few weeks just to see you guys talking about it, and I made an account just for this comment  ;D

I probably won't even get one because I can't really afford it, but I'm excited for the 2017 update!
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MrDude_1

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #199 on: October 21, 2016, 08:11:12 PM »

Post #130 in this thread:
still not news about the 2017 models?

Since I was curious and I wanted a direct answer, I emailed Zero yesterday when you asked.

According to Zero, they announce all the specs for the 2017 models at the EICMA event in Milan Italy, November 10-13.

Just have to wait until November 10th or so.

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rickochet

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #200 on: October 22, 2016, 05:52:10 AM »

Same here! I've been following this thread every single day for a few weeks just to see you guys talking about it, and I made an account just for this comment  ;D

I probably won't even get one because I can't really afford it, but I'm excited for the 2017 update!

Me too!
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grmarks

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #201 on: October 22, 2016, 12:31:30 PM »

maybe they are waitting for thsi battery ?
https://checkthescience.com/news/1649388-spanish-company-graphenano-claims-graphene-polymer-batteries-triple-energy-density-lithium-ion-and-commercialization-end-2016
do someone know where we can buy some?

As much as I would love it, there's no chance these batteries could be tested enough for Zero to put in there 2017 bikes, they haven't even hit the market yet, and when/if they do they may not have the claimed attributes. They don't want a Samsung note 7 incident.
Best we can hope for (that we know of) is the 32ah pouches from farasis. But maybe 2018 will be a breakout year. But then, 30kw at todays prices, would be an expensive bike (prices per kw/h with these graphine cells expected to be the same as now).
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rickochet

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #202 on: October 23, 2016, 12:19:49 PM »

I'd hate to buy a Zero or EV and then suddenly a new breakthrough battery chemistry with more capacity kw/kg, quicker charging and low cost appears. ... But I'd say Li-ion is here to stay for at least a little while... what do you guys think?
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grmarks

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #203 on: October 23, 2016, 03:07:52 PM »

I'd hate to buy a Zero or EV and then suddenly a new breakthrough battery chemistry with more capacity kw/kg, quicker charging and low cost appears. ... But I'd say Li-ion is here to stay for at least a little while... what do you guys think?

Graphine batteries have just hit consumer products (chinese company). Only offering 15 minute charge time as it's advantage. Size is about the same as now, but this is only the first one to market. Expect better to follow. 
We are close to exactly that, a minor revolution.
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grmarks

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #204 on: October 23, 2016, 03:11:37 PM »

check out the link
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ericramos1990

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #205 on: October 23, 2016, 04:45:19 PM »

I'd hate to buy a Zero or EV and then suddenly a new breakthrough battery chemistry with more capacity kw/kg, quicker charging and low cost appears.

Me too! ;) That would be the worst feeling in the world if that happened after just buying a 2016 model!

If that were to happen, do you guys think Zero will make it possible to easily upgrade li-ion to graphene?

The Spanish (article) claim 3 times energy density, while the Chinese (video) claim a faster ~15 times charging rate. I'd be happy with either one.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 04:47:33 PM by ericramos1990 »
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Electric Terry

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #206 on: October 23, 2016, 06:02:49 PM »

Guys there is a 0.00000% chance of these batteries appearing in any mass production EV next year, and probably a 0.0% chance in 2018.  These things take tons of testing in the application they will be used in, in the environments they will be used in, in the real world use cases they will be used in.  If you recently heard about the rush to market (2.5 years of testing still) and the Galaxy Note 7 still had battery issues.

I would be willing to bet all electric vehicle manufacturers will take a cautious approach and extend their own testing for a longer period before exposing the consumer to a fire risk that isn't for all practical purposes considered 0%. 

Because of this I'd be willing to bet that other car manufacturers keep the current battery chemistry another year (perhaps increase capacity through increasing size).  So for Zero, anyone thinking of not buying an end of year deal on a 2016, I'd say the chance is pretty low there will be any battery change in 2017, even the newly announced 32 Ah Farasis cells.  I don't even think they are being mass manufactured yet, let alone out long enough to have any testing done with.

After the cost of recall to Samsung, I would bet the rush to new battery technology to any battery powered device just got a reality check as far as a timeline.  Advancements will come, but they will be slower, and when we finally get them, we can rest easy they have been put through a very long and durable testing cycle in every corner case scenario you can imagine, which is good for us. 
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 06:08:45 PM by Electric Terry »
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mrwilsn

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #207 on: October 23, 2016, 06:41:49 PM »

We are at that stage where "graphene" has become a marketing buzz word.  Think about the way every other product on the shelf says "organic".  What does that even mean? Uhh, good question.  Is every manufacturer adhering to the same definition?  Of course not!  The marketing team figures out people are buying stuff that says organic on the box and then figure out a way to justify slapping it on as many products as possible.

Well, hello age of graphene!  As we all know, graphene is just a sheet of carbon a single atom thick.  And of course, graphite is also just carbon atoms....so...where there is graphite you almost certainly have SOME graphene.  And since many different lithium ion batteries use graphite for the anode it would be hard to argue against any manufacturer that claimed their battery used graphene.

However, there are legitimate reasons to get excited about the prospects of using graphene in a targeted manor to improve the performance of lithium ion batteries.

I'd hate to buy a Zero or EV and then suddenly a new breakthrough battery chemistry with more capacity kw/kg, quicker charging and low cost appears. ... But I'd say Li-ion is here to stay for at least a little while... what do you guys think?

I think lithium ion batteries are going to be around for a VERY long time.  As you might expect, there is a scientific reason why everyone is so focused on lithium for batteries and it has everything to do with lithium's placement on the periodic table which gives it an extremely high theoretical limit for energy density.  The problem with lithium is that raw lithium is extremely chemically reactive.  One popular combo is lithium iron phosphate which is used as the cathode and the anode is graphite.  In total there is an EXTREMELY small amount of lithium in today's batteries.  The Zero battery, for example, probably has somewhere around 900 grams of lithium in a ZF13 battery pack.  One of the goals of a battery engineer today is figure out ways to put more lithium in without making it unstable (think smoke, fire or explosion....yes, the note 7 is getting all the headlines these days but that is not likely a result of the chemistry but more likely a manufacturing defect).

However, just because lithium is here to stay doesn't mean we won't see a break through.  But that break through is likely to come in the form of significantly improving on the density of lithium in a battery through the replacement of other components in the battery with new materials (e.g. graphene) rather than through a totally different chemistry that doesn't use lithium at all.

All that being said....I have been told by Zero and Farasis engineers that the Zero battery pack has had graphene in it for a few years now (I want to say since 2013 but I can't remember the exact year that I was told).  Given all that I stated above you can take that with a grain of salt but given that it was said in a private conversation and not plastered in a news article or marketing brochure I am currently of the position that it is likely being used in a legitimate targeted approach to improve the performance of the battery.

I'd hate to buy a Zero or EV and then suddenly a new breakthrough battery chemistry with more capacity kw/kg, quicker charging and low cost appears. ... But I'd say Li-ion is here to stay for at least a little while... what do you guys think?

Graphine batteries have just hit consumer products (chinese company). Only offering 15 minute charge time as it's advantage. Size is about the same as now, but this is only the first one to market. Expect better to follow. 
We are close to exactly that, a minor revolution.

It sounds promising but I'm always skeptical until an actual product is released that uses the battery and the claims can be verified.  However, it's worth noting that they discuss a 4800 mAh battery that can be charged in 15 minutes.  Although it's not specified, I'll assume that is for a singe 3.7V cell which would equate to ~20 Wh which would require 80 kW to charge in 15 minutes which means a 4C charge rate.  That's awesome for a cell phone which just uses a single cell.  But it doesn't really matter as much when you have a bunch of cells wired up together in a pack.  Although currently limited to 1C, word on the street is that the ZF13 could handle a 5C charge rate but requires additional testing and certification before that capability could be utilized.

maybe they are waitting for thsi battery ?
https://checkthescience.com/news/1649388-spanish-company-graphenano-claims-graphene-polymer-batteries-triple-energy-density-lithium-ion-and-commercialization-end-2016
do someone know where we can buy some?

As much as I would love it, there's no chance these batteries could be tested enough for Zero to put in there 2017 bikes, they haven't even hit the market yet, and when/if they do they may not have the claimed attributes. They don't want a Samsung note 7 incident.
Best we can hope for (that we know of) is the 32ah pouches from farasis. But maybe 2018 will be a breakout year. But then, 30kw at todays prices, would be an expensive bike (prices per kw/h with these graphine cells expected to be the same as now).

Zero is at a very interesting point in their companies growth.  They have finally reached a size where they are making enough bikes per year to get the attention of main stream suppliers (e.g. bosch and pirelli).  But that also means that to make that many bikes they have to make large buy commitments that likely cover multiple years worth of bikes.  A company needs that kind of commitment in order to be able to justify the production of the cells.  They can't just take it on faith and build a bunch of cells and then hope someone buys them.  Bottom line is that the 29Ah cells were introduced to the Zero lineup in 2016 so my money is on 2017 model's still using the 29Ah cells and not the just announced 32 Ah cells.  It's possible that we could never see the 32 Ah cells because even though the 32 Ah cells were just announced it's possible that Zero could be inking the deal today with Farasis today that puts cells that are more than 32 Ah in the 2018 bikes....or Zero could be testing a cell from Farasis or another supplier that gives us the next big leap in energy density...

But that doesn't mean all hope is lost....there is another battery pack change we can hope for...

First of all....given Zero's track record I give this less than 1% chance of happening in 2017 but that said...Zero could continue to use the 29 Ah cells but increase the pack voltage from 116V max to 150V max going from a 28s4p (for the ZF13) to a 36s4p.  That would result in a pack with 17 kWh max.  I haven't been able to find spec sheets for the newer Farasis cells but the 25 Ah cells used in the 2014 bikes are 6mm thick.  Assuming the 29 Ah cells are about the same thickness that would only add about 4 inches in height to the monolith.  However, some of the added height could be recovered by optimizing the packaging inside the monolith.  The result would be a pretty significant increase in range.  It's hard to say exactly how much because the change in voltage would have a ripple affect throughout the design (different controller, different charging setup, different gearing) but I have calculated that you could conservatively expect to see over 100 miles range on the highway at 70 mph and over 200 miles range in the city....and this is without a power tank.

But that probably won't happen...namely because...as best as I can tell...customers that would like a SEVCON Gen4 size 4 controller that can support 150V are asked to "contact SEVCON" and there is no mention of a size 6 controller that supports 150V.  But we can hope....at least until 8 November.  If not for 2017 then maybe for 2018...especially if the new merger between SEVCON and Bassi is able to result in some lower cost integrated controller/charger solutions (not necessarliy a single package that handles controlling the motor and charging the battery but at least integrated and designed to work together to make Zero's job of putting it in the bike a lot easier).

If anyone wants to understand a little more about the batteries that go into our bikes here are two really great videos that will explain just about everything you ever wanted to know.

This first one is cued up to minute 6 where the presenter specifically answers the question "Lithium, or other chemistries?".

https://youtu.be/ISEzvNevyck?t=369

And here is a second video by the same presenter.

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NEW2elec

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #208 on: October 23, 2016, 09:44:54 PM »

This is the older Luke Workman video where he talks about solid state electrolytes and the weight benefits and improved safety and the (maybe) 10X energy density (starts about the 4 min mark).  I don't think Zero uses graphene yet as they still have the same pouch (liquid electrolyte I assume) cells (please no offense to you Mr Wilson I just don't see it mentioned anywhere).  It gets hard to get a full truthful answer out of them because they have to guard their "secret sauce" which I understand, hey its a business.

I could see Zero keeping the same basic platform through 2018 that would be a 5 year run with improvements big and small along the way.  That being said I'm very excited to see the new bikes.

Been posted before but here it is again.


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dkw12002

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Re: Zero 2017
« Reply #209 on: October 23, 2016, 10:02:32 PM »

The Zeros are getting too heavy for me, so I am hoping there are weight reductions. I have never been one to try and make a touring bike out of these. A bike at 325 lbs. with a combined range of 150 miles and top sustained speed of 75 mph would be perfect for me. The huge gains in lithium battery technology are probably behind us.
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