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[protomech]

All of these Model 3 reservations kind of remind me of the rush of "pre-order" reservations when Brammo first introduced the Empulse (when it was to have direct-drive, a 10 kWh battery and was going to sell for around $10K). They supposedly accumulated well over one thousand orders within just a few months, almost all of which faded away when the promised production date faded away, too. I was one of those pre-order customers and hung on for a year until I discovered that it would be another year before the bike would be delivered and there would not be a direct-drive version, but only one with a six-speed gearbox.     So off to Zero it was that had a bike ready to go.   

So I wonder how many of those refundable deposit orders for the Model 3 will hang in there until the car is actually ready for delivery?  While Tesla may be able to deliver the first car near the end of 2017, how long will it take to deliver over 200K Model 3 units and will most of their customers have that much patience? 

The preorders for the Empulse had no skin in the game. Tesla's collected a thousand bucks from well north of 200 thousand people.

Further, the bike Brammo delivered was radically different, more expensive, and much later than originally planned ... while their competitor was delivering bikes that were much closer to Brammo's original intent. If Tesla delays shipment until mid 2019, bumps the minimum price to $50k, and turns the Model 3 into an SUV I bet they will lose a lot of preorders too.

[ElectricZen]

Closing in on 300k pre orders, a rousing success!  Doubt Tesla will miss the date.  They are effectively 3 production lines deep.  I should hope they know what they are doing by now.  Dude got a rocket to go space and land upright back on earth!  I think he can deliver a few million cars.

The big game changer that I haven't seen any mention is what this car just did to the cost of range, aka batteries.  Looks like Elon is dropping the price by a third again!  That's the aggressive move!  Dropping the price of batteries is going to put the pressure on, obviously the gigafactory is the major play here.  Either the gigafactory can deliver or people will just have wait a bit.  Watch for an announcement of a second gigafactory would be my speculation. Oh and maybe some mining in Nevada[emoji14]
Otherwise the car looks great!  Not sure I like the front nose.  And still on the fence on the lack of instrument panel.  But nothing a test drive can't fix!

Sent from my Nexus 9 using Tapatalk

[protomech]

I am starting to wonder where the 273,000 (so far) Model 3 owners are going to be charging their new cars when they finally get them.    I keep thinking that at some point, when electric vehicles become more and more popular, finding a free charging outlet when you need it is going to take some luck. 

They will probably charge at home like everyone does now.  Sure, public charging will be a little more in demand, but with 215 miles of range available every morning, it won't be necessary.

Even now when people find Teslas plugged in to public chargers there is usually some ire since they don't need it as much as a LEAF.

I doubt Tesla owners in general will use public L2 charging very much, unless it's free, and maybe even then. Charging at a 30A EVSE at the US average of $0.12/kWh saves you about $0.80 per hour charging on your power bill. I don't think many people would drive somewhere and wait to save a few cents.

L2 is simply not needed most of the time for daily driving - if you're plugging in at night then it's easier to plug in once per day rather than twice per day. This is actually true even for lower-range EVs as well, which is why public L2 infrastructure is vastly underutilized on the whole.

However, Richard230 has a very valid point for Supercharger congestion. Tesla has a more complete picture, but their most recent public numbers show ~20% of miles being charged on the Supercharger. I expect this to increase slightly for smaller capacity EVs like the Model 3, and as Tesla expands the Supercharger network and more types of trips become possible. Unlike L2 charging, charging on the Supercharger is a significant cost savings (~$15/hour), which will factor into some charging decisions as well - people may stay longer than needed simply to reach their destination.

Tesla is pricing in Supercharger expansion, maintenance, and operation into the price of their cars; presumably this will allow them to scale the Supercharger network as demand ramps up. Very much worth noting that this will require linear scaling of only the significantly utilized stations (maybe 10-20% of the network today); a large part of the network exists to allow occasional longer distance travel over less frequently traveled legs, as opposed to short trips that occur on very heavily traveled legs.

Tesla has all the data to enable them to scale this up and I trust they will be good stewards of the Supercharger network, certainly better than Blink / Chargepoint; it is one of their crown jewels, and by pricing the cost of the network into the upfront price of the vehicle they have the financial resources to do so.

[MrDude_1]

L2 is simply not needed most of the time for daily driving - if you're plugging in at night then it's easier to plug in once per day rather than twice per day. This is actually true even for lower-range EVs as well, which is why public L2 infrastructure is vastly underutilized on the whole.

This is only true when the amount of power you use during the day is less that what you get during your overnight charging time.
When you have someone like me that only sleeps about 6 hours, you get something like 7 hours of charging at home per day.

So for someone like me, I need L2 charging at home. No big deal, just add a breaker and a box, but its something people should think of. Not all of us can plug in at work, or while we're out... and most of the time the car is sitting, its not sitting at home.

[KrazyEd]

Musk says that he feels the AVERAGE model 3 will be equipped to the tune of $42K. That seems low compared to what the S and X are going for.
MY plan is to load up the first one which should now be delivered first. Sell it to someone who is willing to pay a premium to not wait, then, use
the ( hopeful ) profit to pay for the one I plan to keep. If first one doesn't sell, then, cancel order on second. Tesla has a history of being late on
deliveries, with prices being higher than expected when they happen. The model 3 is designed more towards the everyday driver and easier
construction for shorter build time. We shall see. I doubt that the 300K reservations include many present owners, who get a "line pass" to
bypass all of us who waited in line.

[Richard230]

I am somewhat confused regarding how L2 and fast-charging stations are located.  There is one behind the shopping center (where the sun don't shine) in my subdivision. It has been there for two years and I have never seen anyone use the station.  In fact, the fast chargers still have covers over them saying "coming soon".  Kind of sad every time I ride by and see that charging station.

I agree that Tesla is doing more than anyone to advance the EV revolution, but educating the average car buyer regarding the technology, advantages and limitations of electric vehicles and what to do when you own one, is going to be a challenge for them - based upon the car and pick-up truck owners that I see in my neighborhood.   

[Doug S]

Musk says that he feels the AVERAGE model 3 will be equipped to the tune of $42K. That seems low compared to what the S and X are going for.

Auto mfrs often charge more for the same options on their higher-priced models for no reason other than that they can. And often the lower-end models don't get the really good (and pricey) options.

Tesla has a history of being late on deliveries, with prices being higher than expected when they happen.

Late, yes, though I think they've learned that lesson pretty well by now, and there's a lot fewer complicated high-end features on the Model 3 (no falcon wing doors, over-designed seats, etc.). But I don't remember them historically being much if any higher than their projected price points. Sure, you can load up a Model S or X and go over the six figure line, but their base price points are just about where they predicted they would be.

I doubt that the 300K reservations include many present owners, who get a "line pass" to bypass all of us who waited in line.

I wouldn't be so sure about that...customer loyalty is fantastic among Tesla owners, and most people who can spring for an S or an X can easily afford multiple vehicles. I'd bet there are a number of families about to become four-Tesla families.

[frodus]

I went last week at lunch and stood in line for like 30 minutes. Figure what the hell. It's savings, if I need it, I can get a refund. If I don't need it, it'll sit there and I'll replace my Audi A4 in a couple years when its available. No rush for me.

[protomech]

L2 is simply not needed most of the time for daily driving - if you're plugging in at night then it's easier to plug in once per day rather than twice per day. This is actually true even for lower-range EVs as well, which is why public L2 infrastructure is vastly underutilized on the whole.

This is only true when the amount of power you use during the day is less that what you get during your overnight charging time.
When you have someone like me that only sleeps about 6 hours, you get something like 7 hours of charging at home per day.

So for someone like me, I need L2 charging at home. No big deal, just add a breaker and a box, but its something people should think of. Not all of us can plug in at work, or while we're out... and most of the time the car is sitting, its not sitting at home.

Apologies, I meant public L2 charging (ie at grocery stores, parks, movie theaters, malls, etc). For cars with large capacity batteries, L2 charging is necessary to restore most of a full charge overnight - or even to charge a substantial portion in case of a later evening trip, or for multiple trips on a weekend.

10 hours for a full charge seems to be a bit of a magic number.

- Chevy Bolt takes 9 hours to charge on 240V 32A
- Tesla doesn't mention a time, but Model S 90 takes ~10 hours to charge on 240V 40A
- Tesla doesn't even list a full charge time for lower options, ie 240V 32A EVSE or 120V incidental charging
- 2016 Zero S with Power Tank is nearly 11 hours for a full charge at 120V. When and if Zero offers a larger capacity touring bike, I believe they will include integrated L2 charging.

[NoiseBoy]

Even if people don't eventually order, it's a useful $300 million interest free loan to get production going.

[Killroy]

Reserved one. ~150 in line in Nashville. Only disappointment in what I've read so far is that it has a trunk instead of a hatch.

I wasn't happy that orders were taken as the stores opened across the country, giving the earlier opening stores an advantage.
"Fair" would have been to begin taking orders at a specific time once all locations were open. I was informed ( not sure how valid the information is )
that even though the east coast got orders in first, that west coast would receive orders first because of shipping logistics. THIS
part makes it less fair to east coast buyers. Either way, I hope that Tesla makes good use of all the interest free loans they got ( and will be getting )
though this offering.

I recall reading that reservations would be ordered according to time relative to store opening.

However, west coast will take deliveries first, then east coast, then ROW.

Edit: I'm not certain I'll keep the reservation, mostly due to limited need for any car, electric or otherwise. It would be nice to be able to rent until we can supercharge our bikes, at least.

Love the car. Still love my even more affordable, traffic splitting, turn carving Zero.

I wonder why they did a trunk instead of a hatch.  I would rather have a hatch than that big glass.  If I wanted a sun burn I would get another convertible that I already had.

[MostlyBonkers]

Wi-Fi has become a utility, like water. I think L2 charging at home will be the same in a few years. Friends and family will want to plug their cars in so they can make the journey home without having to stop on the way.

I think Elon and Tesla worked this out a while ago. Apart from cheapskates that will go out of their way to supercharge for free near home, the vast majority will enjoy the convenience of plugging in at home and starting every journey with maximum range. That 200 mile range means that charging during a journey will be extremely rare for most. That's why Tesla is working on so many destination charging facilities. I think these must be at hotels, motels and other places where people are likely to stop overnight or for several hours that isn't home. I guess you could add shopping malls to that list.

I don't know if Tesla are already doing this, but perhaps Solar City could offer Tesla owners significant discounts on solar panels for their homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new Powerwall that has enough capacity to at least half-charge a Model S too.

Houses of the 2020's will ideally have Wi-Fi, L2 charging, huge solar arrays and far more off-grid storage than is required to keep a house running overnight.

I think Elon is going to have to build another Gigafactory pretty damn quick. He's just created the demand for one with all the Model 3 pre-orders.

I think things are going to go ballistic in this space over the next few years. Everyone is going to wake up and want a piece of the action, which is exactly what Elon has wanted them to do all along. The next Gigafactories will be built by other car manufacturers as well as Tesla.

The Model 3 could well be the tipping point and I'm very excited about that. The oil lobby won't stand a chance.

More and more houses will go off-grid. Domestic demand for electricity will drop. Prices will go down, thus encouraging more people to buy electric cars and charge at home even if they don't have solar.

Electric vehicles, solar and home storage go hand in hand. The Model 3 and it's competitors will move people towards energy independence. Homes will still be connected to the grid but they'll use the grid about as frequently as they use a land line for making phone calls.

Each electric vehicle could become a symbol of zero emissions from homes (and the grid supporting them) as well as zero emissions on the road.

You have to hand it to Elon, he's a bloody genius!

[frodus]

There was talk about how every one has something that sets them apart..... I'm betting they'll have something, similar to a power-wall functionality, with the Tesla vehicles. Since they do DC fast charging, it's only a matter of time until they allow the use of our batteries as grid storage..... basically V2G.

[manitou]

Yup yup.. Waited in line for about 2 hours and had a reservation by 11:30ish EST (DC area.. Tyron's corner mall to be exact. I better get mine before Ben! Haha.. I'm registered out of Texas though.. Was just in DC for work).
My budget limit is about $60k. Maybe $62ish if that means I get very option.

[Ashveratu]

Manitou, I was just north of you a few miles in Bethesda at the Montgomery Mall. Arrived there at 9:15am and made a reservation at 10:45. There was about 100 or so people still in line as I left. I want to be as frugal as possible, but I will probably come close to maxing out all the options. My goal is to keep her under 50k.....