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[Richard230]

According to an article by Dana Hull of Bloomberg News, published in my newspaper yesterday, sales of plug-in electric vehicles fell last year due to the obvious reasons - low gasoline and high sticker prices. Americans bought just 102,600 electric vehicles (I doubt very many of those were motorcycles) in 2015, a 17% drop from 2014. Nissan Motors sold 43% fewer Leafs and GM sold 18% fewer Volts. BMWNA's CEO, Ludwig Willisch, is quoted as saying "Why should I go electric and pay more when gas is so cheap?" "There needs to be a clear advantage to driving electric: HOV lanes, parking, charging." (Obviously a real EV enthusiast.  No wonder BMWNA has not chosen to import their electric scooter into the U.S.)

On the other hand, luxury EVs seem to be selling well. BMW sold 11,024 of its electric i3s in the U.S. last year, the first year of this model's sales. And Tesla reported global deliveries of 50,580 cars in 2015, a 60% increase over 2014. (An estimated 23,650 Teslas were sold in the U.S last year, a 26% increase from 2014.)

[Burton]

I think people are seeing the newer and better designs and looking at the old antiquated volt / leaf and shrugging their shoulders. I personally know a couple prius owners who are bypassing their batteries (which have failed) instead of replacing them with a new $6k battery.

Or it could be people are still satisfied with their volts / leafs and they were the original EV enthusiast ... and given the old designs are not bringing in new buyers or creating new EV enthusiast those are flocking to the more upgraded and capable designs?

I see a lot of i3's and Tesla's where I live, and I see volts / leafs on occasion as well; but the latter doesn't seem to be increasing in sightings as the former does.

[benswing]

In part, Volt sales stagnated because they announced the new model with greater range, so they couldn't give away a 2015 Volt. 

However, the early adopter market is probably saturated and the cars will need to be cheaper and go farther.  I think the next wave of $30k vehicles with 200 miles of range (Tesla Model 3 & Chevy Bolt) will bring more people to the EV market.

[Doug S]

Oddly, however, Tesla and Zero sales have gone up every year since the companies were started. Could it be that "EV" sales are down because people are tired of the toyish-looking fare they're getting from most manufacturers? (Yes, I'm looking at you, Volt and Leaf!)

The vehicles that take themselves seriously as vehicles, not "alternatives", namely Tesla and Zero, seem to be doing just fine, thank you.

[protomech]

I think people are seeing the newer and better designs and looking at the old antiquated volt / leaf and shrugging their shoulders. I personally know a couple prius owners who are bypassing their batteries (which have failed) instead of replacing them with a new $6k battery.

I agree with this (except the $6k part - I've heard around $3k including installation, and that was years ago).

Conventional vehicles advance relatively slowly, outside of the visual design. EVs are advancing very quickly, in comparison; I would expect this to hurt resale somewhat, particularly for the first generation of 80-100 mile EV cars.

We see some of this as well on the bike side as well, though I expect it will slow as the market matures.

The other thing is that there's a bit of an Osborne effect; most consumers considering an EV purchase know the Bolt, Model 3, Leaf 2.0, and a slew of other 150-200 mile vehicles are coming in the next couple of years. Relatively low-range 80-100 mile EVs will still have a place, but I think the natural price point for these vehicles is likely to settle at around 70% of the cost of a larger battery EV (given similar equipment). Because of plummeting battery prices, this is likely to completely drive the 80-100 mile EVs out of the market except at the very low end (~$10k cars for city commuting only).

Or it could be people are still satisfied with their volts / leafs and they were the original EV enthusiast ... and given the old designs are not bringing in new buyers or creating new EV enthusiast those are flocking to the more upgraded and capable designs?

That's possibly true as well.

Ultimately the people whose needs were well-met by the first generation of EVs (access to a longer-range vehicle for trips, predictable commutes with enough miles to see a significant cost savings vs gas but not so many miles as to cause range anxiety) will still be well-served by their EVs for years to come.

[NEW2elec]

I was trying to look up our GA tax credit to see if we still got our 20% credit and learned a few things.
I didn't know GA was 2nd only to CA in electric cars.  At least until we lost that credit last summer.
They talked to a Nissan dealer who thought Leaf sales would drop by 70% or more here in GA.
I thought that our credit only applied to sales but it was leases as well.
People were driving Leafs for $91 a month after the credit which isn't much more than a bus.
But low gas prices hit sales pretty hard but that might help spur better Ev's so we'll see.

[benswing]

Although December was the best month for EV sales and leases ever.  13,650 EVs hit the roads last month!

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

I think it is likely that 2016 will see an increase in EV sales as the longer range EVs start appearing in showrooms like the 30kWh Nissan Leaf, and the 200 mile Chevy Bolt (probably 50kWh).  BMW is committed to EVs with their i3 and other models coming soon, and VW has been pressured to clean up their image via electric vehicles. 

Hopefully more bikers will take test rides on Zeros and maybe we'll see some new developments from Victory as the year progresses.

[KrazyEd]

   IMHO, The manufacturers are all still trying to keep people from buying their own  EVs. When all the hoopla was happening for the Volt, Chevrolet came out and said
something to the effect " You think that the 2016 is great, wait until you see the 2017. ", and, then, allowed sales only in " limited markets ". Nissan is the only manufacturer
" Claiming " to realize that electric is the future, but, still does not appear to be producing any MAJOR changes to the car that they started selling 6 years ago. Minimal
increase in battery size is pretty much it. 73 mile range for 2011 vs 107 mile range for 30 KW 2016. This is with the knowledge that offerings with double this range at
similar price are right around the corner. It is understandable, the only things that need routine attention are wiper blades, tires, brakes ( less often than ICE cars, but,
still an item ), and, washer fluid. No financial incentive for the manufacturers. People have VERY short memories. When $5 to $7 a gallon gas was projected, everyone
sold their trucks and SUVs, and, bought econo boxes. When gas was projected to hit under $2 a gallon, they got rid of those and got trucks and SUVs again. The I3
with Range Extender won't let you take a weekend trip from Los Angeles to Las Vegas any more than a Nissan Leaf, Spark Electric, Fiat e500, eGolf, or Ford Focus Electric.
Side note: I did in fact drive my new 2014 Focus Electric home from Santa Ana when I purchased it, but was followed by a friend towing an 8500 Watt generator. I
would not have been able to make the trip in a reasonable amount of time using available charging along the way. As of today, the only commercially available
EV capable of making a Weekend trip to and from Vegas from Los Angeles would be the Tesla Model S, or, Tesla Roadster with Supercharger capability. I use this
route as an example only for the distance. Less than 300 miles each way. An easy weekend trek for anyone with an ICE vehicle.
   Then, there are municipalities that are trying to dissuade EV ownership by adding fees not charged to ICE vehicles. Extra fees because they don't pay " gas tax "
mostly. These seem to be a flat fee, rather than miles traveled. I would have no problem paying " my fair share " of road taxes if they just recorded my miles each
registration period like they do with smog checks. But flat fees seem to be well above the " average " paid by ICE vehicles.
Enough rambling, time to step down from my soap box.

[vchampain]

I thing there are very different categories

   a) Tesla is a "passion" purchase - no chance you'll ever save money over the lifetime of your car. It is more a car for high net worth individual looking either for performance (good torque) or "cool factor". These one should not be influenced by oil prices, because they do not care about oil.

   b) Plug-in hybrid & Zero Motorcycles can save money over a lifetime. But the amount of money you're saving depends on the gap between electricity prices & oil prices. When oil is down, and if electricity is made out of non fossil energy sources (renewables or nuclear), this amount reduces and the number of adopters should decelerate at least.

  c) Govt's reactions also play a role - if they stop expanding charging stations number because oil is down, e-bike or cars will be less attractive. Not because of price, but because of convenience !

[Richard230]

Earlier this week California's (Moonbeam) governor introduced his proposed budget to his adoring public.    In it he proposes several new taxes to fund road maintenance (that the state hasn't been performing over the years due to gas tax money being diverted by the legislature for other uses).  One of the new taxes being proposed is a new $65 yearly fee to be added to the current yearly vehicle registration fees paid on every vehicle in the state.  Anyone want to bet that motorcycles will being paying this "fee" just like 6000 pound pickups and motor-homes, even though our 500 pound vehicles impact the roadways to a much lesser extent than trucks.   

Also, you will note that every yearly EV "road maintenance" fee that has been proposed is a flat fee and not based upon mileage.  That might be OK for Tesla owners, but if you own an electric motorcycle you will be getting the short end of that stick.   

[ctrlburn]

Total Car sales are down - so I suppose you could write an article about any segment of than market to doom and gloom anything to ignite some false fervor.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesD

Tesla is up 25%

[Richard230]

In more positive news:  An another article in my newspaper today, published by Wheelbase Media, reports that Ford will invest $4.5 billion into is EV program over the next 5 years.  By 2020, the company says, 40% of its nameplates will offer electrified versions of their vehicles.  The first vehicle of this offering will be the next Focus Electric featuring an all-new direct current fast-charge capability that will deliver an 80% charge (and a 100-mile range) in about 30 minutes. The Focus Electric will also offer a "Brake Coach" feature that instructs the driver on how to smoothly use the brake pedal to maximize the energy captured through regenerative braking.