By the way, guess who's going to have egg on his face in a couple of weeks if Zero announce a sport tourer? Fairing and fast charging and you can all feel free to mock me over the VFR purchase!
I hardly think you need to be worried Pretty much no chance Zero will be in a position to release a bike that can compete on all parameters with the VFR. That's too big a step for one year... Not to mention, right now I don't think it's even a question of price -- batteries don't yet exist which could do this.
That's probably like 3 steps away -- 5 years or so.
(That said, frankly, no offense -- while I've never ridden the VFR1200, I have ridden both a early 1990s and a 2004 (rented for a 200km trip), and they left me completely cold. Much more like a car than a bike, and I would never buy the current version given the poor fuel tank range. Come to think of it, that's one thing it has in common with current e-motorcycles).
I bought a 1999 VFR800 a little while ago. Zero "could" build something like that for 2016. Will they? Probably not, but here's hoping.
The VFR gets around 45 mpg on the highway and has a 5 gallon tank. A bit over 200 miles of highway range.
Zero could build a 20 kWh battery pack from their current cells, as mentioned previously. Or maybe they could use the LG cells powering the
Bolt @ $145/kWh. I suppose Zero's costs are around $5k for its current 11 kWh pack, assembled. If they were able to get slightly higher pricing than GM, considering their lower volume - they could perhaps introduce a 20 kWh pack at the same cost as their current 11 kWh pack.
20 kWh would give you 150 miles of highway range with the unfaired 2015 type bike, but easily
200 miles with some aero improvements.
Component weights for the 2013 ZF11.4 S (387 lbs):
- 112 Farasis 25 Ah cells, 10 kWh -
120 lbs- battery enclosure, internal structure, BMS, cabling, etc -
50 lbs- controller -
5.9 lbs- charger -
9.5 lbs- ZF75-7 motor -
39 lbs - "Rest of bike" -
162.6 lbsA 2015 SR ZF12.5 weighs 414 pounds, a gain of 37 pounds over that 2013 S model. The frame is beefier, the wheels and tires are a little larger, the controller is heavier.
What would a sport-touring bike look like, starting from the 414 lb 2015 SR?
- higher capacity pack - +60 pounds
I haven't seen any information on the battery density for the LG cells in the Bolt. LG is shipping 3500 mAh 18650s today at around 270 Wh/kg. Similar density on their pouch cells would put the cell weight at around 160 lbs (a gain of 40). A larger battery enclosure and slightly longer frame might add another 20 pounds.- ABS / fiberglass fairing - +20 pounds
This wouldn't necessarily have to be as large or as wide as the Vetter fairing. I'm convinced highway power consumption could drop to 100 Wh/mile with a lighter bike and a slightly less aerodynamic but ultimately narrower fairing.- 3 kW J1772 AC charger - same weight
Zero could switch to the same Eltek charger used on the Brammo bikes today. This would give the bike a 7-8 hour charge time from empty, which would suffice for overnight charging.- Tesla Supercharger inlet and interface boards - +5 pounds
- further beef up the frame, suspension - +10 pounds
- dual front brakes, 160 mm width rear tire and wheels - +15 pounds
Kind of expected on a sport-tourer.Puts the bike around 500 pounds. Right around the VFR800 "wet weight". A little slower - think SR ZF12.5 power tank with an extra 40 pounds. A little less highway range, a little higher city / backroads range. With the fairing - and possibly a slightly smaller rear pulley - continuous speed highway operation could improve to 90-100 mph.
Zero could sell a 200 mile electric in 2016 or 2017 for around $20k (more realistically somewhat higher), and probably make a profit on it.
It doesn't require magic technology. If the Tesla Superchargers do support voltages down to 50V, then they could get a 20 minute 20-80% charge (120 miles) along all the Supercharger-enabled interstate routes today.
Will Zero do it? Who knows. It would be a pretty big jump for them. But their engineers surely have something like this knocking around. The technical challenges are (relatively speaking) small, the harder challenge will be the business case to jump from selling electrics at $10-18k to $25k and locking in a cheaper supply of higher-density cells.
How many people would pay $20k for a 150 mile Zero, or $25k for a 200 mile Zero with access to Tesla's Supercharger network? I think they could do pretty well; the 2014 SR started at $18k, and (according to the EV owner map) sold quite well. Double the range, sort the quick charging issue, and I think they would sell every one they could build.