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[Doug S]

Not to hijack the thread with an economics discussion, but Ted, elasticity just means flexibility in a market. In this case, if the demand drops, how much will the price drop? In some markets, a drop in demand will result in a big drop in price (that's a highly elastic market), but in this as in some other markets, a drop in demand won't result in much price drop at all. That's because (as you said) there's no margin for the manufacturer already...which is how elasticity and margin are related. But they're not always related that way; there are actually markets with negative elasticity. If the price of potatoes, for instance, goes up, sales of potatoes actually goes up instead of down. That's because some people's food budgets are very tight, and the more potatoes cost, the less money there is left for more expensive items, forcing them to eat more of the cheapest food item....potatoes.

[domingo3]

I wonder if 2016 model will be higher voltage ? they need to get rid of charger stock too?

That's an interesting thought that would give a comprehensive explanation for the price drop and the free chargers.  However, I thought Zero had a safety argument for keeping the voltage where it is. 

In any case, the timing of this price drop seems peculiar.  No doubt, whatever changes are up for 2016 are already established, but not yet disclosed.  I could see having the price drop at the end of summer, towards the end of the "riding season", and a couple of months before the 2016 announcement.  A price drop in May seems like a good reason to procrastinate committing to a new model year purchase.   I'm thinking about buying a 2016, but this price drop timing makes me think I might as well wait until next June to buy rather than place an order in October.

[teddillard]

Ah, got it, thanks.  ...and actually, I think it's right on point for the topic.  I've always thought the economics if this market is as unique as the products themselves.  Well, since Elon Musk started selling Teslas that is. 

...and Benswing?  +1 

[kingcharles]

Maybe Zero needs to show a high sales volume to a potential buyer and cuts the price to achieve it.

[NoiseBoy]

I wonder if 2016 model will be higher voltage ? they need to get rid of charger stock too?

That's an interesting thought that would give a comprehensive explanation for the price drop and the free chargers.  However, I thought Zero had a safety argument for keeping the voltage where it is. 

In any case, the timing of this price drop seems peculiar.  No doubt, whatever changes are up for 2016 are already established, but not yet disclosed.  I could see having the price drop at the end of summer, towards the end of the "riding season", and a couple of months before the 2016 announcement.  A price drop in May seems like a good reason to procrastinate committing to a new model year purchase.   I'm thinking about buying a 2016, but this price drop timing makes me think I might as well wait until next June to buy rather than place an order in October.

The rumour first came about because Sevcon now produce a ~150V motor controller.  I was half expecting a voltage increase for 2016 or if not 2017 with the new grant being used to develop their own controller.

[Francois]

hope that is true 150v will be a good solution to increase power

[benswing]

There was a recent interview with a Zero engineer that trumpeted how great low voltage is, and even suggested other vehicle manufacturers might move toward 100V.  I can't find it right now, but they seem pretty committed to staying where their voltage is for now. 

[MotoRyder]

Almost two months ago, there was a post by josequinones in which he provided the link to an article in cycleworld.com, which was an interview with Abe Askenazi, the CTO of Zero Motorcycles.  The post is titled  "Abe Askenazi cto Zero electric motorcycles Cycle World interview"   on: April 01, 2015.

In the article, Abe Askenazi surmised about voltage in Zero's electric motorcycles versus other electric vehicles, such as 'the car guys' and the Harley-Davidson Livewire:

Most powersports equipment is based around Field-Effect Transistor (FET) technology, which peaks around 130 volts. When you go to higher voltage, you have to go to Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) technology. The car guys are at 300-400 volts, which incidentally the Harley-Davidson Livewire is 300 volts. But at the level of power that a motorcycle makes, the difference is not that impactful. It’s also a safety issue: Our manufacturing is pretty high-end, but we don’t have automotive levels of safety, and we can’t guarantee that every dealership is going to have high-voltage safety systems in place. The standard for powersports and industrial equipment such as forklifts is 102 volts, which if you screw up will shock and hurt you, but isn’t fatal. If you get shocked with a 300-400-volt battery, you’re dead.

If one is interested in the whole article, I've copied and pasted it here again for ease of use:
http://www.cycleworld.com/2015/03/25/on-the-record-abe-askenazi-cto-zero-electric-motorcycles-cycle-world-interview/

 
=>> Perhaps 150V is not a far stretch from the 102V potential currently applied in their line-up, in that an electric shock still just hurts instead of being fatal.

[teddillard]

oh GAWD he said "impactful". 

 

[mikeisted]

An interesting article.  It would be good to see these more frequently to understand the thinking in the company.  The weatherproofing on the battery packs was also new to me.

Nice picture of the Harley.. I particularly like the wrap around rear mudguard. Practical so as to stop mud spattering on one's newly embroidered skull and crossbones, and stylish too. ;-)

[CrashCash]

I'd give my left nut for that Livewire rear hugger, with the Florida "sunshine"

Man, the "Osbourne effect" is a right bitch here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect)

I guess it's because each new Zero model is such a **huge** improvement over the last one that people really don't want to get stuck with the old tech, much like the early computers - as opposed to ICE where next year's model will have a different sticker kit.

This is why Zero has to keep NSA-level secrecy on things.

Me, I knew I was going to go through early-adopter pain and there'd be no resale value at all. I plan to ride the tits off it for the next 7-10 years when Musk's gigafactory will have made a new battery cheap. The ABS was the deal-maker that finally let me drop the hammer. I have to have ABS on my daily rides.

The tech improvement *I* want (aside from a magic 500kWh battery-which ain't happening) is a Vetter full dustbin fairing. Battling the current barn door aerodynamics relegates my bike to "around town with highly-preplanned runs elsewhere"

Personally, I think Zero has leveled off, and the improvements will be far less. For example, the "new SR" was suspension & ABS, and just a larger battery - not that much of a change in the actual EV parts considering previous years.

My SWAG on next year's SR update will be a sportbike style fairing.

> this little Chinese scooter he sold to DUI offenders

That is AWESOME. I've always said "they HAVE to get to work and stuff, don't take their license away because that forces them to cheat since American public transportation is useless. Put 'em on a motorcycle. They'll learn to stop driving drunk (or whatever) or they'll be dead in a week. Problem solved either way."

> oh GAWD he said "impactful".

I asked Mr. Askenazi about charging at AIMEXPO. He sighed and in about 2 minutes gave me an incredible Ph.D level summary of it. Most of it went over my head but fortunately I'd already read enough that maybe 10% of it stuck. I wish I'd had a tape recorder.

[MotoRyder]

@mikeisted  --  I like your description of needing to protect the colors...can't be having any road-grime mucking things up!! 

@CrashCash -- sounds like one of the best experiences to be had at a motorcycle exposition.  Wish I could chat with Abe, that would be quite an experience.

[Manzanita]

I bought my 2014 Zero S demo bike with 2k miles in mid-April and they quoted me without the power tank, 11.2k out the door... when I arrived to pick it up, they had thrown in the power tank for free!

I thought it was a little too good to be true, thinking they threw in the power tank because maybe there was an issue with this particular bikes' range/batteries. Maybe there is... but I have gone 100 miles with 11% charge still left, so whatever, it's good enough for me. I can commute to work both ways for three days without charging, and I'm still above 20%.

[zap mc]

The Tesla uses round batteries and the Zero uses flat pouch cells. The change over to pouch cells was one of the reasons that Zero have managed to pack more power into a similar volume and hence I doubt they will revert to a 18650'configuration round cell as it wastes space which is at a premium on a bike but not as crucial in a car. I haven't seen a price drop from Farasis so I think that the price drop has to do with something other that passing on reduced costs.

I would venture to guess that some future round of funding or other target is tied to sales volume and by reducing prices the volume will go up to a level that reaches that target.

[Doug S]

...I doubt they will revert to a 18650'configuration round cell as it wastes space...

There's some truth to that, and the other down side is it takes a fair amount of time and energy to build a battery made up of literally thousands of small cells.

The upsides of it are the easy availability of 18650's, and unique to the Tesla is the ability to water-cool them easily. Part of Tesla's "secret sauce" is immersing their batteries in a water bath which keeps them from overheating during massive charge/discharge current events, or from getting excessively cold in extreme environments. It's one of the reasons the Tesla is one of few EVs that operates quite well in very cold places...it does lose some performance, but not nearly as much as most other EVs.