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[ZeroHopeful]

Zero S or SR with PT

Question - Wait for a 2015 or go for a 2014?
2014's seem greatly improved from previous years.

Speaking of possible 2015's - any rumors of changes / improvements?

Other thoughts?

[Richard230]

I just returned from speaking with a couple of Zero factory employees at my dealer's "Zero Demo Days" event.  I asked them the same question, but all I got was that they were working on some "really cool stuff" and they would not confirm that ABS would be offered on their bikes next year.  But personally, I wouldn't be surprised that it will be an option in 2015.   

[trikester]

Factory spill the beans on 2015 designs? Dream on. 

Trikester

[firepower]

they need to get full fairing, make bike less drag, at least an option

[Richard230]

they need to get full fairing, make bike less drag, at least an option

I overheard a couple of comments from riders trying out the Zeros yesterday and they said how much they liked the upright seating position.  I am not sure how well a streamlined dustbin-type fairing would sell and it would certainly cost a lot to design and manufacture in small quantities.  I doubt you will ever see such a thing sold by any motorcycle manufacturer.  The most you will get out of them are low handlebars and a fancy headlight cover. 

BMW tried to make a partially streamlined bike in 1991, called the K1.  It was really pretty slippery, but looked kind of strange and few people bought them. It was a sales flop and BMW sold a lot more of their more conventionally-styled K100RS models (one of which I bought).  The K1 is a minor collector's item now, mostly due to its odd styling and low production volume.

[ZeroHopeful]

Thanks for the responses.

FYI - These days, I only use my car. Recently, I owned a 2014 EdgeRunner electric bicycle for a short while that didn't work out. The last bike I had was a BMW R75/5 73-1/2. What made the half year interesting was the drive shaft went form short to long. 'Long' added about 2 inches which greatly improved the ride.

2015 – maybe I'll wait for it.  Then again, as I'm no longer a 'spirited' driver (maybe sometimes), might get a deal on a 2014 at the end of the model year.

Richard230 – 'Really cool stuff' – ABS sounds interesting. Might be nice with an improved charging system like Brammo advertises.
Fairing – I've looked around on the internet, there isn't anything I've found.
Your comment is likely to stay true forever - “it would certainly cost a lot to design and manufacture in small quantities.  I doubt you will ever see such a thing sold by any motorcycle manufacturer.  The most you will get out of them are low handlebars and a fancy headlight cover.” 

[protomech]

Obvious areas for improvement:

- standard J1772 3-7 kW charging
- higher voltage to support 30m fast DC charging. typically limited to 100A DC charge => need < 50 Ah battery pack => 240V+ for 12 kWh
- ABS
- continued aero and design tweaks
- continued cost reductions

ABS will almost certainly be available next year, as it is a requirement in the EU. Zero has tweaked the braking system every year since 2008, and it still frequently gets dinged in reviews for being poor quality/feel (especially the rear brake).

Zero's lack of a higher-power AC charging capability is a major gap. 120V charging works great for overnight and workplace charging, it's cheap and relatively light weight, but J1772 EVSEs are well-distributed in the US now and allow for significant charge to be regained while out and about - for example while dining, shopping, watching a movie, etc.

Fast AC charging is still not a substitute for fast DC charging. 70 highway miles - 1 hour of highway travel - takes ~8h at 120V,  ~90m at 7 kW J1772, ~30m at 20 kW DC, ~20m at 30 kW DC. A 200 or 300 mile riding day would be very tolerable IMO with fast DC charging, and Zero has a sufficiently large battery pack to support high power charge rates.

Zero MAY tie the introduction of a higher-power onboard charger to a higher voltage power train. This would make sense if the charging system is expensive to redesign. And the higher-voltage power train is surely coming .. it's just a question of whether it arrives in 2015, 2016, or beyond.

Moving to a higher voltage pack will require Zero to do one of three things:
* switch to using packs/modules built from more smaller capacity cells, i.e. 250V 10Ah = 2.5 kWh, similar to existing ZF2.8 module. This will allow them to continue to use lower amp-hour man-portable modules for the X-series bikes.
* split power trains into high-voltage (S-series) and low-voltage (X-series) and continue to use existing removable modules for X-series
* drop the X-series bikes completely; S-series seem to sell much better, and the X, XU, MX bikes have already been dropped

I don't know if we'll see those changes in 2015; the DC charging standards are not settled or widely distributed outside of select corridors. But, most of the high-end EV sport bikes are coming with DC charging compatibility .. Zero and Brammo are surely anticipating doing the same, and Zero's engineers must have been working on something since the mild 2014 refresh..

Consider:

* Summer 2014 $32k 12 kWh Mission R, 30 minute 80% charge time
* Late 2014? $39k 12 kWh Lightning LS-218, 30 minute charge time (details TBA)
* 2015 $TBA (I guess $25-30k) 12 kWh CRP Energica

Imagine if Zero released the following for 2015:

* 6 kWh 40 kW S ZF7 (240V 25 Ah) $12-13k, 320 pounds, 3 kW onboard charger, 10 kW fast charging optional ($500)
* 12 kWh 50 kW S ZF14 (240V 50 Ah) $18-20k, 450 pounds, 6 kW onboard charger, 20 kW fast charging standard
* something special for the SR ..
* gearing optimized to put the efficiency sweet spot at 60-70 mph .. possibly 30T/132T?
* FX dropped

Aggressive but not impossible pricing. It would span roughly the same price range as the 2014 bikes ($12k to $20k), but their lineup would be significantly simplified and they would dramatically undercut the super bikes while still offering approximately the same fast-charging capabilities.

I'd be surprised if this happened for 2015 .. but pleasantly so. This or something like it is surely coming.. just a matter of when.

[manlytom]

My guess is simply start of with a DSR. More power for the dual sport. Other than that tweaks and a range of models that makes them affordable.
Could add another frame style for the SR that is more a sports bike. Like an R1 frame as Danny uses for his dual Oz electric champion winning bike. No need for a full blown Vetter fairing. More a crotch rocket version. Ok I would not buy it as Zero hooked me onto the motard style riding.

The two c for the night

[protomech]

Aggressive but not impossible pricing. It would span roughly the same price range as the 2014 bikes ($12k to $20k), but their lineup would be significantly simplified and they would dramatically undercut the super bikes while still offering approximately the same fast-charging capabilities.

Worth noting here that the sticking point for release of a high-voltage bike will likely be the availability of a low-cost high-voltage motor controller. I don't think for Zero's purposes it needs to be very high-power: 50 kW in the Zero SR is clearly enough to deliver smoking performance. But it does need to be cheap; typical high-voltage motor controllers like the Sevcon Gen 4 Size 8 typically cost thousands of dollars, where the lower-voltage size 4 and size 6 controllers are available for hundreds of dollars.

Maybe Zero will develop their own motor controller in-house or maybe they will delay release of a HV bike until a less expensive motor controller becomes available. Electric bikes priced in the $10-20k range cannot absorb a $5000 component cost as easily as a vehicle priced in the $30-40k range.

[NoiseBoy]

A higher voltage battery wise could be accomplished just by running the modules in series/parallel. At least in 4 module config.

I have said in many threads that I don't see cost reductions as a major goal for Zero, it's a premium product with a premium price tag.  Maybe small reductions of a few hundred dollars but nothing substantial.

[Richard230]

A higher voltage battery wise could be accomplished just by running the modules in series/parallel. At least in 4 module config.

I have said in many threads that I don't see cost reductions as a major goal for Zero, it's a premium product with a premium price tag.  Maybe small reductions of a few hundred dollars but nothing substantial.

I think I disagree about Zero's business plan.  I believe that they want a certain volume of sales. (I heard their goal is 2000 sales this year.) And you can't get there if the selling price is too high.  Almost every person that I talk to is quite enthusiastic about the idea of owning an electric motorcycle, but the high purchase price really puts them off.  I don't think Zero wants to compete with Mission, Lightening, Brutus, etc for the big buck customer. There are just not enough of them out there to grow their sales and ensure the future of the company.  My guess is that Zero will strive to reduce the cost of their models and attempt to bring them down to the level of IC motorcycles, which (granted) seem to be increasing in price every year and will soon reach the price level Zero's product line in many instances.  What Zero needs to do is to continue their sales growth and hope that an increasing EV demand will increase component availability, technology and manufacturers and decrease the cost of EV parts.

[ultrarnr]

ZeroHopeful,

I have been looking at Zero motorcycles since they first came out. Actually had a early S model on order and canceled it after being jerked around for about 15 months on the delivery of it. This spring I decided to go ahead and buy a Zero SR with Power Tank. After 3500 miles so far I have no regrets. Is Zero going to come out with something better next year? No doubt in my mind they will. And the year after that and the year after that to. So what. The 2014 SR is a LOT of fun! But the other side of all of this is that I also have a 2012 Suzuki DL 650 V-Strom. It isn't very hard to go find a motorcycle that out performs my V-Strom at every level. So what. I love the V-Strom and plan on keeping it forever. Great bike. Right now the SR handles my short range trips and the V-Strom handles the longer range. I think you have to take a hard look at the S or SR and determine if you could enjoy the features and performance that they offer right now. If the answer is no then wait. If it is yes then go buy one. 

[benswing]

I think it is unlikely that there will be a major upgrade in 2015, like the one from 2012-13.  You probably won't have buyer's regret since the main things that would lead to such a state are: longer lasting batteries, more powerful motor or faster charging.  I don't think any of these features will take a quantum leap forward next year.  Maybe some baby steps in one or all of these categories, but not a huge drop in price or increase in range or more powerful motor.

Although I sincerely hop I'm wrong about this particular prediction....  :-)

[protomech]

A higher voltage battery wise could be accomplished just by running the modules in series/parallel. At least in 4 module config.

I have said in many threads that I don't see cost reductions as a major goal for Zero, it's a premium product with a premium price tag.  Maybe small reductions of a few hundred dollars but nothing substantial.

Building a high voltage battery is easy. Building it so that it is safe as a production battery is a little more challenging, but within Zero's capabilities. Building a high voltage motor is also not a  problem. Sourcing a high-power high-voltage charger will probably be easier than sourcing a high-power low-voltage charger.

Sourcing a low-cost high-voltage motor controller is the hard part, and I suspect that Zero will not build a HV bike in 2015 or at all until such a part exists.

Zero is surely putting pressure on Sevcon to build a controller to their specifications, and it's likely that the MC market may be growing rapidly enough that Sevcon would listen.

Sales increased 7% from the second quarter last year in North America driven largely by an increase in sales of 160% to two-wheel, on-road OEM’s which more than offset a combined reduction in sales of 32% in the traditional areas of aerial work platform, airport ground support and the mining sector.

Guess how many two-wheel OEMs there are using Sevcon controllers in North America..

By absolute sales, the two-wheel business is still small. Brammo and Zero combined account for optimistically 2000 units/year, or in the ballpark of $1M/year revenue for Sevcon (assuming $500/unit). Sevcon's revenue appears to be around $32M/year, so Brammo and Zero are perhaps a few percent .. but growing.

[Doctorbass]

Best would be to make a controller that also support the charging section... Both integrated together! This would save cost in part but the cost for developping one would be high at the begining only.. The AC output could also receive the AC from the charging power as a regen but some additional mosfet let the AC chargiog  to "regen" the battery.

HV battery without modifying the frame could be done. Let say 56s instead of 28.. that way the FX could keep the same frame and have a FZ5.6 single battery that could charge at 25A 232V ( 1h)

But... HV mean more cell in serie = twice risk of low or unbalanced cells...

Doc