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[Olav]

Wow! On the 2014, a switch on the handle bar for SPORT / ECO selection. Hmmm........that sounds familiar. Where have I seen that before.

Oh, yeah, my 2012 DS.   

Trikester

Oh, I thought it was a new feature. My bad. 

I was wondering why the rep pointed it out with such enthusiasm...

Wait a minute yours looks a little different.

[NoiseBoy]

Wow! On the 2014, a switch on the handle bar for SPORT / ECO selection. Hmmm........that sounds familiar. Where have I seen that before.

Oh, yeah, my 2012 DS.   

Trikester

Oh, I thought it was a new feature. My bad. 

I was wondering why the rep pointed it out with such enthusiasm...

Wait a minute yours looks a little different.

Trikester made that switch himself.  I always thought i would be more likely to switch into eco mode if the switch was on the bars.  As it is I stay in sport all the time.

[trikester]

I think Olav was speaking "tongue-in-cheek". 

However, I had also done this mod on my 2013 FX but now I've taken it off. I've found that with the new ability to program the ECO mode I didn't use it.

I now have ECO programmed for max torque, max speed, minimum regen with brake light off, maximum regen with brake light on. This allows as much free coasting as I can get with the fixed SPORT regen that we can't reduce (minimum ECO regen is the same as minimum SPORT regen). Then I pull the front brake lever just enough, without applying the mechanical brake, to turn on the brake light and activate maximum regen braking. Because this works well for all of the types of riding I do (pavement & dirt) I just leave it in ECO all the time now. I have the e-trike set up the same way.

TRIKESTER's THEORY OF EFFICIENT DOWNHILL OPERATION:

If descending a slope where no braking is needed, free coasting is more efficient than any regen back to the battery because any current generated by the motor will also have some IR losses associated with it (added to the the free coasting losses).

If descending a slope where additional deceleration is needed then it is more efficient to have regen returning energy to the battery, than to dissipate that energy in mechanical brakes.

Therefore: Free coasting = use no regen. Slowing = use regen, no mechanical brake activation unless regen is not slowing enough.

Simple stuff - huh?

Trikester

   

[Doctorbass]

TRIKESTER's THEORY OF EFFICIENT DOWNHILL OPERATION:

If descending a slope where no braking is needed, free coasting is more efficient than any regen back to the battery because any current generated by the motor will also have some IR losses associated with it (added to the the free coasting losses).

If descending a slope where additional deceleration is needed then it is more efficient to have regen returning energy to the battery, than to dissipate that energy in mechanical brakes.

Therefore: Free coasting = use no regen. Slowing = use regen, no mechanical brake activation unless regen is not slowing enough.

I 100% agree with that, the deceleration regen (just like normal compression of gas motorcycle) is not  as efficient as better to  free coastin foe to mechanic to electric to mechanic energy conversion loss


 

[jazclrint]

I don't see why Zero would limit it to a track-only bike. eRR is becoming less relevant, and the eSuperStock has never been truly relevant as an award. Homologation is a non-issue.

The Size 6 controller costs only a little more than the Size 4 - see electricmotorsport, which offers the Size 4 controller for $925 and the Size 6 controller for $1195 (+$270).

The extra cost is all in programming the controller to work reliably, and then perhaps any marginal cost increase associated with a more difficult tuning process, if any.

They can then price-drop the Size 4 bikes by (say) $1000, and offer the Size 6 bikes at 2013 prices. That gets them both a slightly lower entry point - good for bringing new feet in the door - and a higher acceleration / top speed. Suppose they offer 25/98 tooth gearing as stock; 17% reduction in gear advantage, but a ~30% increase in motor torque from the bigger controller means acceleration is markedly improved, and advertised top speeds in the 115-120 mph range .. and possibly a small increase in highway range and sustained top speed.

28/132 tooth gearing options would let the S wheelie like the FX, and perhaps make it the quickest production EV in the world (~3.7s 0-60 = as fast as the Tesla Roadster Sport). Top speed and sustained top speed would both go up a little too.

Now they'd have a Size 6 bike that can out-accelerate the Empulse, outrun the Empulse on the freeway, and offer more range.. at $1000 less than the E1. Unless Brammo drops their prices as well..

First I have to take a bit of exception to the eRR being irrelevant, naturally.  The best and most exciting part of the racing this year in the US was the battle between everyone who wasn't on an Empulse RR, which was most of the field.  The eSS hasn't been really relevant, but bikes that fit that label have provided the best racing in the US for the past two years, and have brought new teams to the sport both here and in Europe.  Even though eSS hasn't been it's own class or even officially recognized it has generated a whole lot of conversation.  Enough so Parker ponied up for some awards of their own fruition.  Now, next year the TTXGP is set to have their own eSS series in the US and was using this year to let teams do their thing and see if they couldn't get an actual better idea for a rules package.  It will be a rules package free for any racing organization to adopt, such as the AFM, CCS, etc..  Brammo has had conversations with AFM racers and others about the TTX.  Having a pre-packaged track bike just makes sense with the AFM and M1GP bringing elmotos into the fold, and if the Ess thing takes off and club series all over the country adopt the rule package.  Especially if you want to sell it to someone who doesn't know electricity. and doesn't want to know.  They just want to go race.

As far as track only, I was simply not making assumptions.  But it seems to me that if the Zero really felt a Size 6 controller was was a viable thing to bring to market the 2013s would have come with it and it would actually have been an Empulse killer.

[protomech]

Less relevant is not the same as irrelevant. I agree that the production-based battles in the US races were the most compelling electric racing this year.

However. Two US races in 2013? Empulse RRs doing parade laps waiting for competition to show? (okay, hyperbole .. Eboz and Turpin definitely are racing each other) Parker did try to offer a eSS award, until they were told to shove it by the FIM. Late notification to teams, high entry fees, small grid sizes?

Yeah, hard to see why there appears to be more interest in AFM than eRR.

Here's my tinfoil hat theories on no Size 6 this year:

1. If Zero largely carries over the 2013 bikes into 2014, Size 6 gives something to write about in 2014 / persuade 2013 owners to upgrade rather than just Bold New Graphics.

2. Zero spent some time this year moving into their new manufacturing facility, and bikes are (reportedly) on backorder now. Offering a substantially more attractive bike this year probably would not have meant more sales. However, in 2014 when they have the manufacturing capacity .. suppose the 2014 Zero S is $12000 ZF8.5, $14000 ZF11.4, +$1000 Size 6. I bet they would sell a few bikes .. and most of them Size 6. (Even though without the EV federal rebate, prices would be somewhat the same)

3. Hollywood Electrics is their biggest dealer, by far. Suppose an agreement was made between Zero and Hollywood Electrics to offer the Size 6 as a semi-secret upgrade. Hollywood Electrics gets a little extra cash, Zero gets some real-world development miles and a year of riding on Size 6 controllers (maybe they feel a little burned by Size 4 glitches?).

Remember when Luke on elmoto said something to the effect of Zero had spent $100k in labor getting the Size 4 working properly with the 2012 bikes? Harlan's a smart guy, if any individual could get the Size 6 controller working it'd be him, but I don't think the Size 6 is exactly a drop-in replacement.

4. Brammo started selling the Empulse R in Dec 2012, and the E1 in spring 2013. If Zero dropped a Size 6 into their 2013 bikes, the Empulse would be DOA (imo), or at least a very hard sell. Whatever acrimony may exist between the two companies - and certainly there are some individuals at Zero that feel it - I suspect / hope they recognize that killing Brammo does not make a stronger EV marketplace. (maybe my idealism is showing? Zero is a business, after all)

1 & 2 are plausible to me, 3 & 4 are kind of out there. In truth it may be none of these.

[Richard230]

Speaking of racing, I see that BrammoBrian, Brammo's Director of Development, has created a poll on the Brammo Owners website asking how the forum members feel about racing electric motorcycles next year.  The poll even includes an option to dump racing and spend your time on building and developing production street bikes.  That indicates to me that Brammo is wondering if racing is worth the cost, time and effort, from a business point of view.  This would not be the first motorcycle or automotive company to ask themselves that question.  Actually, just about every vehicle manufacturer (well, maybe not bus builders) probably ask themselves that question almost every year.

[kingcharles]

2. Zero spent some time this year moving into their new manufacturing facility, and bikes are (reportedly) on backorder now. Offering a substantially more attractive bike this year probably would not have meant more sales. However, in 2014 when they have the manufacturing capacity .. suppose the 2014 Zero S is $12000 ZF8.5, $14000 ZF11.4, +$1000 Size 6. I bet they would sell a few bikes .. and most of them Size 6. (Even though without the EV federal rebate, prices would be somewhat the same)

I have never seen a bike manufacturer drop the price of their bikes year on year. More likely the other way around!
So 8.5 will more likely be 14500 and 11.4 16500

[protomech]

Brammo did it with their Enertia, from $11995 mid 2008 to $7995 mid 2009 iirc.

Zero has not done this within a line, directly.

You can make some comparisons across years and lines; for example, the 2010 S is somewhat similar to the 2013 XU ZF2.8; the XU has comparable range and significantly more power, and costs $2000 less.

However, within the lines Zero has always kept the price steady or slowly bumped it.

XU has gone from $7695 to $7995.

S has gone from $9995 to $11495/$13995 to $13995/$15995.

They've periodically provided price drops in form of the gas clunker rebate last year. This is effectively a price cut to reduce inventory.

However, Zero has also never kept the bikes the same year over year. They could certainly bundle in the Size 6 as standard and keep the prices the same. We'll find out soon.

[Richard230]

As near as I can tell, most of the IC motorcycle manufacturers are all raising their prices on existing models now that the "recession" seems to be easing a bit.  However, when introducing new bikes, Honda, and to some extent Yamaha, are reducing their prices on new models that seem to have been designed during the Great Recession.  They have done this either by designing "world" bikes and manufacturing them in Asian countries other than Japan, or by going over a new model part by part to find areas where manufacturing costs can be reduced - and then manufacturing them in low-overhead countries.  I don't think Zero has that kind of flexibility.  My guess is that Zero will keep prices the same and make a little less profit on each unit.  They are pretty much constrained by the cost of their individual parts, which are all manufactured by outside suppliers and I would think that their volume just isn't enough to force their suppliers to cut the price of their parts.

With the federal tax credit likely going away for good, it could be a tough year for electric motorcycle sales to anyone who isn't really into the technology and willing to pay a premium price.

[protomech]

I don't know how much of the development costs of the 2013 bikes was financed by outside investors and how much was financed by sales of the 2013 bikes.

If the 2014 bikes are little different, then their development cost is paid for - therefore Zero COULD (but perhaps may not) drop the price accordingly.

The big barrier for EV motorcycles, as with EV cars, is cost. Unfortunately motorcycles are already a somewhat niche market; an EV like the LEAF that captures a fraction of a percent of the total market will still sell tens of thousands of units per year, and reap scaling benefits accordingly. An EV motorcycle manufacturer that captures a fraction of a percent of the motorcycle market may not even reach a thousand sales per year.

Hand-waving ahead. Apologies if this is belaboring the point.

Suppose Zero considers several different MSRP.

Let's say $13995 is the base MSRP, $2500 margin after materials, labor, shipping, estimated support costs, dealer fees, etc.

At $13995 they might sell 500 bikes. Total margin = 500 * $2500 = $1.25M.

At $12995 they might sell 800 bikes. Total margin = 800 * $1500 = $1.2M.

At $12495 they might sell 1000 bikes. Total margin = 1000 * $1000 = $1M.

At $11995 they might sell 1500 bikes. Total margin = 1500 * $500 = $750k.

At $11495 they might sell 2000 bikes. Total margin = 2000 * $0 = $0.

Obviously I'm making these numbers up, Zero has presumably done their market research and can put some less speculative numbers out there.

So, stupid for them to price the bikes at anything but $13995, right?

However, a couple of things:

1. At thousand-unit quantities, Zero will get some price breaks on components. I don't know how extensive these price breaks will be. Point is that the base cost of the bike is not constant, it will be dependent upon volume. So maybe at the 2000 unit/year level their actual margin at the $11495 price point is $1000 = $2M total margin.

2. Zero just moved into a much larger facility. They might not have been able to build 2000 '13 bikes in the first part of this year even if market demand existed. So their prices may have been set to maximize profit given a fixed quantity of bikes they could produce. In 2014 they will be able to produce a significantly larger quantity.

A Size 6 controller and BNG will get them attention, but it will not get them significantly higher sales.

3. Zero needs to continue building out their dealer network, and that means they need to be able to tell them they will be able to sell product. Selling 1 or 2 bikes at $500 dealer cut won't keep a dealer's lights on for long.

[Richard230]

Protomech, you mentioned that Zero has moved into a larger facility.  I hadn't heard about that before.  Can you provide a few details, such as where they are currently located and how big the building is? Is there a link to the story?  It might make for a nice day trip if they are still in the Santa Cruz area.  When I was at the factory last December, they did look pretty cramped and I can see how a larger plant would be a big help.  In particular, the parts and assembly areas were nowhere as big as what I have seen in photos of the Brammo factory.

When I mentioned my interest in purchasing a 2014 Zero next year, my dealer asked if I would like to put down a $1000 deposit so that I could be the first person on my block to own an 2014.  I told her, nice try, but I have learned my lesson about being the first to try a new model vehicle, having done so with several BMW motorcycles in the past and become their quality control test rider.     All I need to do is to hold out for a few months after the 2014's are introduced.   

[protomech]

They apparently moved back on March 31. So this isn't exactly recent news (and I may have misstated its significance).
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=416056008490209

http://www.dealernews.com/dealernews/article/zero-motorcycles-moves-larger-hq-manufacturing-facility

[Richard230]

They apparently moved back on March 31. So this isn't exactly recent news (and I may have misstated its significance).
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=416056008490209

http://www.dealernews.com/dealernews/article/zero-motorcycles-moves-larger-hq-manufacturing-facility

Thanks.  As usual, I am way behind the times.  Good thing I didn't try to visit the factory again. 

[NoiseBoy]

At current pricing levels EV's have to be a premium product.  You can't sell a $30k+ vehicle to people that usually drive base model cars and bikes, because they cant afford them.  But an executive that can afford that money wants climate control, electric seats and touch screen satnav.  I see this as the reason that things like the Peugeot iOn flop and the Model S does so well, Tesla nailed their target market by building something that is expensive, but outperforms everything else on the road.

In conclusion, leave prices as they are but build the bikes better as the batteries get cheaper.