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[CliC]

I see your point about revolution vs. evolution. Brammo will not be able to wait until 2017 to introduce their next bike, and if Zero continues at their current rate the 2014s will likely underscore that for Brammo. Brammo has a competent base platform (frame, suspension, brakes, wheels) in their favor, though they'll have to hold the line on price. If I had to guess, I'd predict they'll drop the gearbox and up the battery voltage.

Best case of course is for both companies to remain viable, as competition is healthy. Worst (and, unfortunately, not improbable) case is for both to disappear. If necessary, a WP or Sachs and Brembo upgrade for my DS to keep it going wouldn't be the end of the world

[lolachampcar]

ZeroSinMA
Adjust your thoughts just a bit about the ICE guys.  I was/am one (the S1000RR sits next to the 9DS) and finally made the move when the utility was sufficient to make electric an option.  I also ran a tech business.  I believe there are a number of tech types (read non-ICE) that will pick up Zeros.  However, I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of the bikes Zero sells in the future will be to ICE types and not pure tech types.  If I am correct, the business approach will need to be a hybrid of tech/ICE.  I do not think Zero can afford to ignore things like total cost of ownership and lack of secondary market support unless the business model is to prove technology then sell out.  If it is, then iterate on and toss your customers to the weeds.  Your evenual buyer will be buying technology and not customer base.

For the record, I've got 5K miles on my bike.  Zero showed up at my hangar to do the battery board and brake switch recall before I was aware of any issue.  Likewise, I just had the speed controller programmed at my now local dealer.  Again, problem addressed before I was aware there was a problem.  In short, great bike, great support and fantastic handling of issues before they even showed up on my scope.

[manlytom]

great feedback. I run into senior Harley guys (as I ride one, or rather have one sitting in the garage). Initially it was, ah yeah the Brammo etc. etc. and I showed them the real deal, using it day-in / day-out and funny enough the Oz MD of HD got the hang of it first - so is it a utility for you or more ? do u still ride your harley ?

[trikester]

I know you all are probably tired of hearing this from me by now, but I just want to keep saying it. Every dirt rider I talk to I say; if you ever ride electric on the dirt trails, you won't want to ever ride a gas bike there again. 

That is certainly what happened to me!

Trikester

[Richard230]

In today's newspaper's business section was an article titled “Quick revamp of iPad leaves some miffed”, written by Heather Somerville of the Bay Area News Group. The article claims that “there has been a backlash from consumers who say that the short life span of Apple products is becoming wearisome – and expensive”.  I don't keep up on high tech gadgets like iPads, as I have enough trouble just trying to make a phone call from my flip-open cell phone, but it appears that Apple has revamped their latest full-size iPad just 7 months after releasing the third generation of the device.

The article says that many customers were “irked that they just spent $500 on what they thought was a cutting-edge tablet, only to watch it fall to near obsolescence on Tuesday”.  One customer was quoted as saying that Apple should have told him that the iPad that he bought on Sunday would be outdated within 48 hours.  A poll of about 1400 Apple users by a website showed that 83% of the responders “felt cheated” by the latest iPad announcement.

But the article quotes Stephen Baker, VP of the NPD Group, as saying: “I don't think they (Apple) owe people anything.  If the iPad 3 worked for you great two days ago, it still works for you today, so I don't know why you would feel cheated”.

While I don't think there is too much comparison between Zero's electric motorcycle marketing plan and that of Apple's product marketing (don't they wish), I found the statements and comments in this article interesting. 

In Zero's case, the important thing is that they continue to support their customers with good warranty and after-purchase service and keep up the R&D pace, even if it means that existing customers bikes don't have the latest performance technology.  After all, when they bought it, it was what they wanted and felt that they needed at the time. Just like current iPad users, if it worked then it still works now and frankly, if you were buying most any motorcycle, much less an EV, resale value was probably not at the top of your concerns at the time  of purchase.

[ZeroSinMA]

In today's newspaper's business section was an article titled “Quick revamp of iPad leaves some miffed”, written by Heather Somerville of the Bay Area News Group. The article claims that “there has been a backlash from consumers who say that the short life span of Apple products is becoming wearisome – and expensive”.  I don't keep up on high tech gadgets like iPads, as I have enough trouble just trying to make a phone call from my flip-open cell phone, but it appears that Apple has revamped their latest full-size iPad just 7 months after releasing the third generation of the device.

The article says that many customers were “irked that they just spent $500 on what they thought was a cutting-edge tablet, only to watch it fall to near obsolescence on Tuesday”.  One customer was quoted as saying that Apple should have told him that the iPad that he bought on Sunday would be outdated within 48 hours.  A poll of about 1400 Apple users by a website showed that 83% of the responders “felt cheated” by the latest iPad announcement.

But the article quotes Stephen Baker, VP of the NPD Group, as saying: “I don't think they (Apple) owe people anything.  If the iPad 3 worked for you great two days ago, it still works for you today, so I don't know why you would feel cheated”.

While I don't think there is too much comparison between Zero's electric motorcycle marketing plan and that of Apple's product marketing (don't they wish), I found the statements and comments in this article interesting. 

In Zero's case, the important thing is that they continue to support their customers with good warranty and after-purchase service and keep up the R&D pace, even if it means that existing customers bikes don't have the latest performance technology.  After all, when they bought it, it was what they wanted and felt that they needed at the time. Just like current iPad users, if it worked then it still works now and frankly, if you were buying most any motorcycle, much less an EV, resale value was probably not at the top of your concerns at the time  of purchase.

I have enough defunct Apple computers to open an Apple museum but you'll never find me in line with the Apple hive waiting for the doors to open to buy the latest. Apple is famous for using its rabid fans as unwitting beta testers. I long ago learned to give Apple at least one if not two development cycles on a product before buying it. I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone. I own a 3 year old iPad that works just fine for my purposes, have a new MacBook Pro for travel, and typing this on a 2 year old iMac. Maybe I'll buy the latest iPad because so many web sites now run so many scripts and other memory hog programs that they often crash an old iPad.

I applied the same philosophy to Zero. Waited two years before buying my first Zero in 2011 to give Zero time to iron out the bugs. I'll skip a year or two and maybe buy a 2014 or 2015. The 2012 is rock solid.

Granted the $4K - 5K first year depreciation hit is tough to swallow. Once the market matures the resale value should improve.

[machone]

I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone.

'Soviet' ended in 1991. Russian technology is the only thing able to cost effectively(a Western pioneered concept) keep us traveling to and from the space station just now.

I applied the same philosophy to Zero. Waited two years before buying my first Zero in 2011 to give Zero time to iron out the bugs. I'll skip a year or two and maybe buy a 2014 or 2015. The 2012 is rock solid.

Not sure I follow ZeroSinMA? 3 year cycles for reliable tech?

[hungff77]

Well, being an Apple product user, you are kind of expected that the next model will be better then the current model. But it just doesn't make sense to keep waiting for the next one, as there will be infinite waiting. So I usually like ZeroSinMa, wait for the second generation so the product is more refine, or buy the last generation at a big discount price.

I found Zero has a similar approach as Apple, which I think is better then see the announcement but never receive the product.

The other motto I always keep is buy it when you need it (or want it) and then use it as much as possible, don't let it just sit around collecting dust and become obsolete. I think this apply to most tech gadgets and so does to Zero.

[Richard230]

The December issue of Motorcyclist magazine contains an article (starting on page 22) where various representatives of the industry attempt to predict what motorcycles will be like in 50 years. Needless to say, there are as many opinions as there are respondents.

Scott Harden, Zero's VP of Marketing has this to say:  "Electric motorcycles will become a major player in the motorcycle market. The technology is already relevant, and the improvements over the next 50 years will be astounding. Energy costs, non-existent powertrain maintenance, low emissions, and the way the rider interfaces with the machine - and fellow enthusiasts - through personal communications devices all favor electric motorcycles. As technology improves, electric bikes will go farther, faster, and, most importantly, be more fun to ride than traditional motorcycles."

Perhaps more interesting are comments by Michael Czysz who says that "50 years from now, the MotoGP grid will be all-electric. Today's most advanced electric motors are already better than current MotoGP engines in terms of torque delivery, physical size, engine-braking control and reduced gyroscopic/handling impact. In 50 years, it will not even be close.  Where batteries are concerned, charge time will become equal to fill time for gas bikes. Battery energy density may increase two times or even four times in 50 years, but the real breakthrough will be in charging. Carbonized nano-graphite networks, which emulate the structure of bone marrow,   will dramatically increase battery surface area and reduce full-charging intervals to minutes, or possibly even seconds."

Finally, in a sidebar describing what the major motorcycle manufacturers are up to when it comes to electric motorcycles:  Honda is given credit for their concept RC-E and Kawasaki is said to have filed patent drawings showing two new electric motorcycle designs. One is a full-on, aluminum-framed electric superbike, while the second is along the lines of a battery-powered, tube-framed ER-6. Both use a similar water-cooled electric motor bolted - unusually - to a traditional motorcycle-style, four-speed transmission.  

[protomech]

I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone.

'Soviet' ended in 1991. Russian technology is the only thing able to cost effectively(a Western pioneered concept) keep us traveling to and from the space station just now.

It's not an issue of cost-effectiveness, it's an issue of it happening to fall into gaps between space programs.

Sending a single astronaut into space via a Russian rocket costs $47 to $60 million (depending on what numbers you read).

Amortized over the life of the program, the average cost to launch the Shuttle was $450 million. A typical crew of seven would put the per-seat price at ~$65 million.. so a bit worse than the Russian rockets.

The US is shifting to privatization for low orbit bulk and crew transport. SpaceX says they can send an astronaut to the space station for $20 million.

[s44captain]

Taking a look back to the 70's  Honda had about 20 new model changes a year an at lest a couple new engines. They had over 50% of the market share at one point with used Hondas having a larger market share than the rest of the field.  It looks like the Zero method is very similar, hopefully it works again.

Also, I wouldn't knock Brammo too much, I got mine in 2009 (#38) and had no issues with it other than having to keep the speed down in the 30's if I wanted to go more than 25 miles.  The instrumentation was excellent as you could select programs that showed your kw draw and told you have far you could go with the remaining battery at your current speed - very nice.  I was looking forward to the Plus when it was announced and sold mine in 2010 to take advantage of their loyality rebate ($2,500.00) since the larger battery would not upgrade.  2 years of waiting made me happy to still have my ICE bike until a test ride at a local dealer on a Zero S and I made the switch to the Zero.  I've been told that my rebate will transfer to the Empulse.  So for 2013 I could have a 11kw Zero S for $15,995 or the Empulse for $14,495 which would you choose?

[ZeroSinMA]

I never upgraded my 9 year old iPod that looks like a 1950s hearing aid with a dial on it until I bought a iPhone last year after struggling with a google Android phone for a year. What a piece of crap, the Soviet version of an iPhone.

'Soviet' ended in 1991. Russian technology is the only thing able to cost effectively(a Western pioneered concept) keep us traveling to and from the space station just now.

I applied the same philosophy to Zero. Waited two years before buying my first Zero in 2011 to give Zero time to iron out the bugs. I'll skip a year or two and maybe buy a 2014 or 2015. The 2012 is rock solid.

Not sure I follow ZeroSinMA? 3 year cycles for reliable tech?

Not dissing modern Russian tech or even 30 year old Russian IT tech. Top notch. I'm too old and my reference to Soviet military tech is outdated.  Substitute the government of any large, bureaucratic, centrally planned economy. As they say, an elephant is a mouse built to government specifications.

Google does a horrid job ripping off Apple's products. My google phone hardly ever worked, never mind seamlessly like an Apple product. Crash, crash, hang, crash, reboot... ridiculous.

[ZeroSinMA]

Taking a look back to the 70's  Honda had about 20 new model changes a year an at lest a couple new engines. They had over 50% of the market share at one point with used Hondas having a larger market share than the rest of the field.  It looks like the Zero method is very similar, hopefully it works again.

Also, I wouldn't knock Brammo too much, I got mine in 2009 (#38) and had no issues with it other than having to keep the speed down in the 30's if I wanted to go more than 25 miles.  The instrumentation was excellent as you could select programs that showed your kw draw and told you have far you could go with the remaining battery at your current speed - very nice.  I was looking forward to the Plus when it was announced and sold mine in 2010 to take advantage of their loyality rebate ($2,500.00) since the larger battery would not upgrade.  2 years of waiting made me happy to still have my ICE bike until a test ride at a local dealer on a Zero S and I made the switch to the Zero.  I've been told that my rebate will transfer to the Empulse.  So for 2013 I could have a 11kw Zero S for $15,995 or the Empulse for $14,495 which would you choose?

That'd be an easy call for me. I never buy the V1 first model year of any product. I'd wait for the V2 2014 Empulse if I was stuck on Brammo. But by then 2014 Zero will be shipping V4 2014 bikes with more power and range than Brammo and that might cause me to throw in the towel.

[protomech]

The 2012 Zeros might as well have been the very first model year. Nevermind that there was a thing called a 2011 S, the 2012s had new motor / controller / BMS / battery.

2013 looks like smaller changes, only new motor and new battery. (BMS is slightly different but still largely the same I bet). Zero has been working on the motor for a while, so it should be 100% solid from the start.

At Daytona, Brammo engineers told me they found and corrected the encoding error in the Sevcon controller some time ago (Empulse uses Size 6 Gen 4 Sevcon vs Zero's Size 4). They've certainly had time to get the bugs worked out on their development and long term test bikes.

[oobflyer]

Interesting discussion.

While I have nothing against Brammo for me it was an easy decision. Although I'd had a reservation for the Brammo Empulse since it was first unveiled - I ride a Zero because it was first available. If I'm a "typical" consumer I imagine a lot of folks would make the same decision. By the way, Brammo was promising the Empulse for "summer 2011" when they unveiled it at Laguna Seca in 2010 ( )- they are not just a few months behind schedule....

s44captain - the cheapest Empuse is $17K, while the top of the line Zero is $16K.

I think there is some overlap between geeks/ICE bike riders/Electric bike riders. I've ridden ICE bikes my whole life (40+ yrs). It was very easy to switch to an electric bike, but just as electric car owners currently have to also have an ICE car for longer trips - I keep my Honda in the garage for just such occasions.

I also have all of the Apple toys, which all just became "obsolete" overnight 

As far as waiting for the next best thing - I think it's difficult to compare a $15K motorcycle to a $200 iPhone. I don't mind shelling out a couple of hundred bucks every couple of years for the latest pocket gadget, but I must admit I'm quite frustrated at just having purchased a 2012 Zero ZF9, only to find that the '13 has undergone vast improvement. I won't be buying a new one, of course - unless Zero will give me 95% trade-in on my Zero  ;-)

Meanwhile - I'll be picking up my ZF9 from the shop tomorrow - hopefully with the "glitch" fixed and the circuit boards waterproofed....