That last post NAILs the key business issue for Zero.
There is no developed secondary market for the bikes. The technology is also moving very quickly. Zero is a small and young company.
Add the above up and you have the potential for the company to concentrate on the new at the expense of their customer base. If they pour all their energy and resources into creating new products they will eventually run out of well healed early adopters or hard core adopters that will spring for the kind of money that it takes to get one of these bikes. Granted, there is a very large European market which will increase the available pool of buyers but Zero will eventually run out of the initial pent up demand. If they do this while simultaneously abandoning their initial customers feeding a secondary market by upgrading to the new hardware, they may find themselves in a short term boom that keeps their startup head above water while shooting themselves in the long term foot by doing little to nothing to control the total cost of ownership. Allowing that number to get out of control opens the door wide for eventual competitors.
Let's face it. The Zero solution is simple and really should be obvious to anyone with reasonable technical skills. If I am correct in this statement, then it is business acumen and long term vision that will determine if Zero makes it. They have a golden opportunity with the electric bike technology discontinuity to establish themselves as a viable niche player with long term staying power. It can be done; I know from first hand experience. It can also be blown; I know from first hand experience.
I contacted Zero's CEO regarding the trade in / resale issue as soon as I saw the new line up. I'm getting the large battery MY13 DS no matter what happens so it is not a make or brake issue for me. However, if they leave the rest of their owners to fend for themselves on the open market and make no attempt to underwrite a secondary market, resale prices will be low and total cost of ownership will be high. Zero can head this off by driving their dealers to support an active trade in program and Zero driven secondary market. They are the market maker and have access to the potential customer base. A good number of the contacts that have developed will be price sensitive and open to a factory certified pre-owned unit with warranty. It will cost Zero short term margin to support this effort but I believe it will pay long term dividends. It will also increase turn over in their dealers which will strengthen those relationships.
I mentioned earlier that I contacted Zero's CEO about this. I caught him at a show in Germany. His responses were mostly consumed with telling me how well the show was going which indicates a laser focus on shareholder/fundraising/marketing interests. He responded to my questions with a "we will look at it". I followed up asking him to contact me when Zero has come up with something. In the absence of this post, I doubt I will hear from him/Zero.
Nothing in the above should be taken as a dis to Zero. Kudos for generating a great product and actually SHIPPING it. I write the above from the vantage point of having crashed and burned in several start ups and actually succeeding in one. The short term pressures are overwhelming and it takes great strength to survive them without sacrificing the future. I want to see Zero succeed. I want to see them around after Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki and Suzuki finally pick up the ball and run with it. It will happen. The question is how long will it take Zero's proving and growing the market before they feel it is substantial enough to get in. How long will it take legislators to figure out that bikes have utility now (yea, I looked at the Leaf and it has less utility than my 9DS) and thus can help prove that electrics are real? When they figure it out, the big guys will start feeling the pressure.
I'm an engineer so, until the Zero, I was not a believer. I got my Zero and a week later I put a deposit down on a Model S. The return argument is not there yet but there is now real utility to electrics. With more players, the cost of ownership will come down. I think electrics are finally here. I have a vested interest in Zero as I am a current and future customer. The question for me is will Zero be here four years from now.
Just my 2 cents worth.