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[protomech]

Moving from gas to electric isn't necessarily a cure-all for emissions. Comparing a 50 mpg Prius (the most efficient closed-loop gas vehicle) to a Nissan Leaf (the most popular pure plug-in electric), in about half of the states the Leaf is responsible for more CO2.

Fortunately, most of the states where EVs are popular have relatively low-carbon electricity.

I think $6-8/gallon gas will be a big tipping point for EV adoption. There are numerous self-limiting factors on the price of gas/oil: as long-term price goes up, people drive slightly less and purchase more efficient cars, so demand dips slightly and has a lowering effect on the price; as long-term price goes up, more expensive means of producing oil become viable (tar sands are a great example) that boost long-term supply. The US is producing more oil now under Obama than under Bush II, though not yet more than in the 1970s and 1980s.

[kcoplan]

Protomech, you are correct that in many places electric cars are responsible for more CO2 than a really efficient gas car.  That's one reason there is room for electric motorcycles in a carbon-limited future -- our zeros use something like 1/5 of the KWH per mile as a leaf.

Also, if there is such a thing as a zero carbon future, it is probably going to be largely electric.  While we currently burn lots of coal to generate electricity, at least we have existing renewable technologies (solar and wind) that at least theoretically can cover our energy needs.  There is a recent study out of Stanford that even a cold, not-so sunny or windy state like NY could achieve 100% renewable energy  by 2030 if it developed all the wind and solar potential in the state.

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/march/new-york-energy-031213.html

This study assumes that all vehicles sold in NY would have to be electric, starting sometime around 2020.

I am not saying I think we are going to get there.  But IF we do, its going to be a largely electric future, with liquid fuels reserved for long haul freight transport, not for personal transportation.
--Karl

[WindRider]

Yes, I think that motorcycles will become more utilitarian than in the recent past.

Motorcycles in the US have gotten to be either track focused or cruiser focused at the expense of utilitarian uses like commuting or running errands.   Most people own motorcycles just for weekend toys.

I have seen that change recently with more people interested in riding to work and saving money on basic transportation. 

While I don't think motorcycles will all turn into ugly scooter trunks, I do think that motorcycles that offer a lot of value and utilitarian use are selling well and that means the industry will probably offer more like them in the future.

[BSDThw]

I have one point in Germany I don't know how it is somewhere.

The cost of a driving license became extremely high. I know some of the youths don't make one because they don't want to spent the money. A motorcycle license double it. 29 Years ago when I did my first license it was prevalent to do both even if lots never used to ride a bike.

So lots tell me it would be nice to use a motorcycle or scooter, but the have no license.
 

[Richard230]

Yes, I think that motorcycles will become more utilitarian than in the recent past.

Motorcycles in the US have gotten to be either track focused or cruiser focused at the expense of utilitarian uses like commuting or running errands.   Most people own motorcycles just for weekend toys.

I have seen that change recently with more people interested in riding to work and saving money on basic transportation. 

While I don't think motorcycles will all turn into ugly scooter trunks, I do think that motorcycles that offer a lot of value and utilitarian use are selling well and that means the industry will probably offer more like them in the future.

That seems to be what Honda thinks.  All of their new 2013/14 models seem to be aimed at the utilitarian and low-budget market.  Time will tell, but Honda is usually right - in the long run.

[trikester]

I would like to know how many Yamaha TW200's have been sold over the many years of production of essentially an unchanged design? It is a good utility bike, low enough for short people and can hold its own in the dirt. However, I'm sure that many of them never get off the pavement and are used to get to work and getting around town. The wide tires give it excellent stability and traction.

Trikester