According to Zero's manual, I should not notice any range reduction before about 4-5 years or 300'000 km, so if my battery is still fine, what isn't?
Unfortunately that's not how it works. Batteries usually lose a bit of capacity right at the beginning, then continue to lose capacity at a low rate. When they start losing more capacity again quickly they're about to die.
The manual also states that the figures apply to city driving where you don't usually stress the battery.
There are other factors that will affect battery life. Generally speaking you should avoid a high or low state of charge. It's okay as long as you don't let the battery sit at 100% state of charge or at almost empty. Winter driving shouldn't be an issue for a motorcycle but driving like a maniac in hot weather and recharging the battery while it's hot should also be avoided where possible.
There's a lot more to battery life, but the bottom line is that the battery won't stay at full capacity for 300.000 km and then fail all out of a sudden. Degradation happens gradually.
Given the relatively high charge/discharge rates and the fact that the battery isn't liquid cooled I would expect about 1000 to 1200 full charge cycles in real-world conditions. Maybe a bit more with a power tank equipped.
So if you can do 160 km with a fully charged battery, that would translate to 160,000 to 192,000 km of battery life.
The figures Zero states in the manual are not actually wrong, but I doubt that anyone driving a SR/F would exclusively drive in the city at 50 kph max.