After making it twice, I think I have a decent chain guard design.
Both tries used 1/8" aluminum lined with UHMW (all cut on the table saw). The first one was formed using a bench vise and some wooden blocks cut into dies. It turned out decent (obviously bends were not as crisp as a real brake). Unfortunately I had mocked up the shape late at night by cutting a piece of cardboard, and I guess the chain had more slack than I realized because my angles were off. Additionally, it was not easy to line the bottom of this one with UHMW. So I was not completely happy with this first design.
I scrolled through Amazon to see what the aftermarket ones for other bikes looked like (hoping to find one that I could just make some sort of adapter plate for). Seeing those inspired a new design where the UHMW is sandwiched between two flat aluminum plates, and everything is clamped together by two brass bolts at the bottom (and the bolts at the top that attach it to the bike). This turned out to be both easier to manufacture, and just looks and feels like a nicer product in the end.
I actually have a revision I'd like to make to this new one, but it is not really worth re-making. I want cut slots into the bottom UHMW block so that the side blocks can tuck in to it, removing the need for that extra slot-head bolt. I will make a drawing for this "new revision" and post it here.