Reading this thread I am a little concerned about the mindset and the longevity strategy of Zero. I have invested €27,000 in my fully loaded Zero SR/S. This translates to $32K. I plan to ride this bike the next 20 years. Fully understand, that this requires to repair or replace parts or the entire battery at some point in time. I am expecting, that Zero have or will have a long term strategy to support this wish.
Nothing wrong if a repair or replacement is a up to $10K investment. If this is required every 10 years this is still a good long term investment.
Best case would be, if Zero plans battery replacement into the design. I am guessing, that battery technology will improve the next 10 years and Zero bikes at this point in time may have 20 kWh or more. Why not offer this capacity as replacement to older bikes? Zero has to ensure compatibility of connectors and needs to upgrade the BMS. This would make it really easy to me to swallow a $10K pill.
I think the longevity of the battery has proven to be pretty good. I'd expect 10 years out of the majority of zero batteries. But the cost of replacement is an issue, and the availability of that replacement is also an issue.
From what I've gathered, a replacement 14.4 monolith is approximately $6k. Plus labor. Since the 3.6 FXS module is 3K, we can reasonably assume that a lot of that cost is the actual labor of manufacturing the pack and not just the battery cells, so even as cells drop in cost I expect this cost to stay reasonably high.
Unfortunately I don't see zero changing their setup, the monolith is going to be a single part for the foreseeable future for several reasons. It just makes too much sense to fully pot the battery. To build it in another way would make it far easier to damage the battery from heat, vibration, or impact and hugely shorten the lifespan of the battery, as well as likely require the battery to be far less energy dense.
This is really a reality with almost all EV's. Even in packs like Tesla or Chevy where the batteries are not fully potted, the reality is that if you have an issue with the battery, you are replacing the whole pack. It is not reasonable or feasible to go through all the labor (and risk!) of opening up the pack to test and replace individual cells or even individual modules, and then have the resulting battery have mismatched cells of different capacities and internal resistance. The cells in the whole pack need to be matched.
20 years down the line? Yeah, you're looking at an expensive replacement. Hopefully cell costs and manufacturing processes have improved by then so that it's a less costly investment, but bottom line is it's going to be a significant cost. Again, this is one of the drawbacks of all EV's. It is why they drop so quickly in value compared to their gas counterparts, and part of why most EV owners do not intend to drive them for 20 years but rather drive them for a few years, sell them, and upgrade to something newer. Something we should really consider if we're buying an EV to be "green". Also something to consider in the supposed cost-savings of EV ownership. How much fuel and maintenance do you save in those 20 years with your EV, and does that savings justify the expensive battery replacement down the road?
My bigger worry is that zero, as a small manufacturer, will cut off support for replacement batteries for older models. In reality we don't know if Zero is even going to exist in 20 years. This could be true of small batch gas bikes as well. You can't assume any bike that sells, say, less than 10k worth of bikes a year, that needs specialized parts, to have parts availability 20 years down the road. There's just no guarantee of that kind of long term support. But with gas bikes you can find and cannibalize another bike from the same year. You're not going to find another healthy zero battery from a parts bike in 20 years, which makes your options more limited or possibly non-existent. Even if the repair is easy and available, how many people are going to pay more than what their bike is worth for a battery replacement instead of upgrading to a newer bike?
Again, something worthwhile to consider for those of us purchasing these bikes in an attempt to stay green. Every vehicle has an end of life, but long term EV's will reach a point where repair is impossible or prohibitively expensive long before a comparable ICE vehicle, and that is going to contribute to waste/pollution in both production of replacement EV's and the discarding of the outgoing vehicles.