I've given you examples of how companies do things different for better results. There are videos showing all the ways Lucid approached the range problem with "smart" solutions not just more and more batteries for better range. I also know you know it proves my point because your trying to cling to the fact that they aren't in customers hands as a last defense.
It's not a last defense. It's literally the first question I ask. "Are they in the hands of customers?" If not, they get filtered into the Concept Pile section. Companies that have successfully delivered products get heavier weighting for how likely it will be to exist in the end. Like the Cybertruck. Or Chevy's standalone Bolt power trains that they want to offer to enthusiasts to convert their old vehicles to electric.
Approach this from the human side not the math side, because you don't "know" what they will actually put in the bike.
All I can do is speculate based on what they have claimed they were doing. They have claimed they are using 21700 cells from South Korea and that it will be a 450 volt nominal system. Their latest information indicated a 19.2kWh pack. "These are the facts, your honor, and they are undisputed."
I base calculations off of this information. If you want to do the math and you come up with different results than me I'd love to see it.
While I would absolutely welcome the fully claimed range all the time, I won't throw a tantrum if the real world results are less then the ideal claimed range.
I live in the real world and I've had EVs for years and accept the physics involved in human transportation, and how it effects range.
There comes a point when you have to also examine the claims of the company in interviews, etc. Take this article for example (and I think it's linked somewhere in here already)
https://www.webbikeworld.com/damon-motors-reveals-its-hyperdrive-multi-variant-powertrain-alongside-new-models/They talk about having a battery density of 200Wh/kg is an unprecedented achievement. In fact, the article states, "Damon claims its battery is the most energy-dense in the world at 200 Wh per kg. "
I asked some of my buddies at Zero about the energy density of their packs, not mentioning anything about Damon, and they said, "I think ours are around 280Wh/kg. Why?"
Jay stated on Facebook that Tesla didn't have cells that dense. I happen to know the model 3 cells they currently use, even before the new tabless ones, are 250Wh/kg.
Additionally they talk about this unprecedented 3C discharge rate. Jay is very adamant that this is an incredible achievement. I have bad news about that. Zero's cells are rated for 10C discharge. There is also the issue that, if the packs are 19.2kWh, a 3C discharge is 57.6kW. This is a far cry from the 150kW of power they're also, in the same breath, advertising. There is a fundamental misunderstanding of how this stuff works from the CEO. Combine that with his arrogant way of talking down about his competition and you have major red flags that, in my mind, cannot be ignored.