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[MostlyBonkers]

I've also posted this on the Facebook group. I'm posting here too as I know some of you don't use FB.  I can't say I blame you either!  :-)

I can understand why the 2012-15 models were expensive; battery costs and the development costs of the early bikes.  However, during the last five years the cost of batteries has plummeted.  So why aren't we seeing this reflected in the cost of the bikes?  I don't see any reason why a new Zero S or DS should cost more than a Honda NC750 S or X.  Other than Honda having greater economies of scale, of course.  Regardless, Zero must have seen their costs reduce over the last five years.

My own theory is that Zero don't have the ability to scale up production at the moment.  If they drop the price, demand would shoot up to levels that they can't supply.  At the current price point they can make enough profit by manufacturing a coupe of thousand bikes a year without having to invest in a larger factory.   The sad thing is that I think there is a lot of latent demand out there just waiting for prices to drop.  I'm certain a lot of bikers would consider a Zero as a second bike and keep a tourer for longer trips.  Not to mention all the commuters who would benefit greatly from having a Zero ease the burden of their daily grind.

Any thoughts?

[princec]

I would be absolutely all over a SR/F at £15k for a premium model. But that's the absolute most I'd pay for what amounts to a toy.

Three things are out by a factor of 2 before the general market take any notice of electric bikes:
1. Price
2. Range
3. Charging time

Cas

[talon]

It seems to me that they need those prices to subsidize the bikes that don't sell. I've seen new never-titled Zeros that took 2 or 3 years to sell, so they have to be able to heavily discount them and still make the dealer network something for the time they sat. When sales slow down we may see them lower the prices and scale up. As it sits now the SR/F and SR/S are very new frameworks and all the publicity and everything probably has sales peaked for their current capacity. With how much they have taken in investments to get to this point they need them to be selling for those crazy $16k MSRP's. I'm talking out of my ass a bit but this is how I see it--I think it's just a matter of time.

Of course the current virus situation has made everything very unpredictable so I doubt that they will make any major business changes for a while.

[remmie]

I hear a lot that the cost of batteries has plummeted. But is that true? If I look at the attached graph the AVERAGE cost of batteries went from around 600$/kwh in 2014 to around 400$/kwh in 2020. That is not exactly plummeting in my humble opinion. I must admit that I was also surprised to see that the drop in prices is much less than I expected.

Plus the battery also increased in kwh from 2014 to 2020 (well actually up to 2018 because 2018-2020 has seen the same battery size)

2014 : 11.4 kwh * 600 $ = 6.840 for the batteries alone
2015 : 12.0 kwh
2016 : 12.5 kwh
2017 : 13.0 kwh
2018 : 14.4 kwh
2019 : 14.4 kwh
2020 : 14.4 kwh * 4000 $ = 5.760 for the batteries
so the battery price for Zero has "only" gone down 1000 dollars in those years. So there is not much to be saved there.

And there is another thing,
Because the space on a motorcycle is so limited, Zero opted to use Pouch cells, which are very energy dense and space efficient in a battery pack compared to round batteries where you lose a lot of space between the batteries. But these pouch cells are more expensive because they are produced less. And Zero has chosen to use the pouch cells with the highest density each year (i.e. the top model of the battery supplier, hence high prices). Pouch cells are also not the main stream package of batteries so there is no real mass production of pouch cells compared to the for example the round laptop or Tesla cells. So pouch cells are relatively expensive.

Using round cells like tesla in a motorcycle would greatly increase the size and weight of the battery so that is a nogo terrain for Zero (again, in my humble opinion )
Also  I think that if they ware able to make a motorcycle like the SR/F for 10 or 15 thousand, they would absolutely do it.
 
And to disappoint a lot of people wanting it :
The unicorn of an electric motorcycle with a highway range of 300 km (i.e. 40 kWh battery!), charge time of 15 minutes (i.e. 160 kW!), weighs less than 200 kg, has a 0-60 of < 3 seconds AND costs 10.000-15.000 US$/GBP/Euro's does not exist (duh) and WILL not exist for many years!   

BUT that said, try a Zero, buy a Zero and enjoy the ride !
I know I did yesterday for 280 km riding 2 up through beautiful sceneries (we are fortunately still allowed to go outside, as long as we keep distance to other people), charged at only 1 stop for 50 minutes, which cost 3 euros and had an absolute blast the whole day. 

[valnar]

Several factors - some of which I saw posted by others on Facebook.

1) They're built in California.  It's expensive to live there, and pay people there.
2) I don't think the demand is as high as you think.  While I personally had an issue buying a 2019 FXS mid-summer last year (because they were sold out), I only had to wait a few more months for the 2020.  Are there lines of people waiting to buy a Zero that goes for 6-9 months?  The opposite may be true.  My local dealer has a 2018 FX he can't get rid of.
3) Battery prices haven't really dropped as much as you think, and they build in higher capacity batteries instead of lowering the price.
4) Assuming the staff can only build X number of bikes per year, and their costs (materials, rent, labor) stay constant, they really can't lower their prices much even if the components go down, because....
5) Zero isn't profitable last time I read somebody who spilled the beans.  I wish I remember where I saw the insider post, but I don't.

These are layman guesses btw.

[Richard230]

My feeling has always been that Zero just doesn't have large enough sales numbers to produce their motorcycles efficiently and to purchase parts at a volume savings like the big manufacturers do.  They could buy cheap crap parts from China, but would you really want them to do that?  And the battery comments by remmie certainly is a big factor that keeps their prices high.

I have seen Zero's factory and it is nothing like BMW's, as an example. It is more like hand assembly on movable stands in a big garage. Labor intensive and no robots. Plus, labor costs in the SF Bay Area is not cheap.  Add to that most of their staff are (presumably well-paid) engineers trying to advance the technology, they have no other product to financially help to support the company, and their sales remain very small due to the limited market.  Frankly, I am amazed (and thankful) that they are still in business and that their private investors continue to support and fund the company's operations and have not tried to sell the operation to a major brand and cash out, like what happened to Brammo.  Just look at the list of electrical motorcycle maker sub-forums below and consider how many of them are still in business. 

[NEW2elec]

Bonkers where ya been? 

I agree the costs haven't dropped like we had hoped but I think the old predictions of cheaper batteries didn't take increased demand into the equation.
Now it seems battery "cells" have dropped in price quite a bit but the labor cost to build them up into usable batteries has gone up.  I feel that's been Zero's number one issue for a while, high labor costs for every position.  (Richard I wrote this before I saw your post but glad to see we agree)  Remember even at the current prices I don't think Zero has ever made a profit.

I think it was very unfortunate that the SRF and SRS weren't able to come out with 20kWh batteries and be a smashing success, though they are very nice bikes in their own right.  Perhaps soon, but who knows.

I still love my Zeros and hope to keep them going for years to come but without a (very) large increase in range from some bike company I doubt I'd get another.

[domingo3]

My thoughts:

  We can second guess the pricing as much as we want, but Zero is operating in a free market economy.  I don't have any reason to believe that Zero is price gouging.  If they were/are, and there is latent demand, then other manufacturers will bring products in at competitive prices and put pressure on Zero to lower prices.

  I think that a comparison with Honda's NC750 is somewhat apples to oranges.  Sure, I wish that I could get a Zero for $8k.  Why stop there, though?  I wish I could get a Zero for $1000 that weights 100 lbs, goes 0-60 in 2 seconds, goes 500 miles on a charge and recharges in 45 seconds.

  Not just for Zero, but in general, I used to get hung up on the sum of the component costs versus the selling price.  There's a lot more to the costs than that, and it's a business decision how they set their prices.   Of course, they would sell more if they reduced prices, but the same could be said about pretty much anything that's for sale.   I would agree that it seems prices on batteries have gone down some, but I can't profess to know any more than that about the balance sheet for the company.  Not being publicly traded, Zero doesn't disclose much of anything to do with their finances.

  I usually keep my bikes for a long time, and I intend to do so with my Zero.  If I were in the market today, I'd buy a Zero at the current offering price. 

[princec]

Occasionally see this emphasis on crazy 0...60 times... not everyone really cares about that. I don't really care about it at all. I'd be happy with 5 seconds and 100mph top speed, like most commuter bikes. There's no need to go chasing ludicrous tyre-shredding power and instant jail terms - bikes are already bonkers fast. Development of bikes faster than the SR/F would be, at this point, a waste of money for Zero. They instead need to figure out how to double that capacity and halve that charging time. And when they've done that... do it again.

Cas

[valnar]

Occasionally see this emphasis on crazy 0...60 times... not everyone really cares about that. I don't really care about it at all. I'd be happy with 5 seconds and 100mph top speed, like most commuter bikes. There's no need to go chasing ludicrous tyre-shredding power and instant jail terms - bikes are already bonkers fast. Development of bikes faster than the SR/F would be, at this point, a waste of money for Zero. They instead need to figure out how to double that capacity and halve that charging time. And when they've done that... do it again.

Cas

Agreed.  As long as it's under 5.8 seconds and can beat your average V6 automobile, the rest is gravy.
https://www.zeroto60times.com/vehicle-make/zero-0-60-mph-times/

Although this is off topic, I think range is and always will be an EV's biggest issue, not price.  They can add more batteries, but a 600 pound bike is unwieldy.  The laws of physics come into play.

They obviously made a design decision to use a direct drive and air-cooled motor in order to reduce complexity and weight, but perhaps it's time for them to look at other options?  I'm sure their engineers are looking into that; R&D takes time and money.  I always wondered if a simple 'Low and High' 2-speed transmission would help, like in those old motorcycle arcade games?  But would the cost, weight and complexity negate the benefits?  Smarter minds than mine probably ponder that in Scotts Valley.  As of right now, I see they are looking to hire some powertrain experts.
https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/company/employment

[BrianTRice@gmail.com]

The battery prices that have plummeted are for cells and packs that are manufactured and assembled in extremely large quantities.

These are not cells or packs that work for electric motorcycles, and the electric motorcycle battery manufacturing pipeline is still attached to the industrial light truck and forklift market, where high density is a premium.

Therefore, the scale effects of the batteries described in the news cycle for Tesla and other large manufacturers have not translated into price reductions for us.

Note that there are other car manufacturers (Mercedes-Benz IIRC) which had to stop production because they couldn't even get access to batteries in the volume they required.

[princec]

This is why I sit on my pile of $TSLA stock

Cas

[GaryArt1]

I agree with all the reasons above.  US labor costs are at a premium.  Just ask Harley and Indian.  You don't see their bikes selling for the same prices as Hondas, Yamahas, etc.  I think another reason Zero bikes cost what they do, is for the quality of their products, this is the going price.  Look at the price of the Energicas and the Livewire. You can't compare Zero's bikes to some of the cheap Chinese electric motorcycles.   TZero sells for what people is willing to pay for it.  Yes maybe they would get more customers if they drop the prices but that would mean a huge investment in a large automated manufacturing process.  Now it will be interesting what happens when the big 4 Japanese manufacturers come out with their electric lineup.  If they keep Zero's quality while drop the price due to large scale automated manufacturing, then it will be tough for Zero (and Energica) to continue as they are now.  Will they change or become an expensive niche bike like Ducuatis, BMWs and Aprillas.  I guess in the next few years, we will see.

[Crissa]

Nobody has large, automated motorcycle manufacturing, though.

-Crissa

[T.S. Zarathustra]

I hear a lot that the cost of batteries has plummeted. But is that true? If I look at the attached graph the AVERAGE cost of batteries went from around 600$/kwh in 2014 to around 400$/kwh in 2020. That is not exactly plummeting in my humble opinion. I must admit that I was also surprised to see that the drop in prices is much less than I expected.

Plus the battery also increased in kwh from 2014 to 2020 (well actually up to 2018 because 2018-2020 has seen the same battery size)

2014 : 11.4 kwh * 600 $ = 6.840 for the batteries alone
2015 : 12.0 kwh
2016 : 12.5 kwh
2017 : 13.0 kwh
2018 : 14.4 kwh
2019 : 14.4 kwh
2020 : 14.4 kwh * 4000 $ = 5.760 for the batteries
so the battery price for Zero has "only" gone down 1000 dollars in those years. So there is not much to be saved there.

And there is another thing,
Because the space on a motorcycle is so limited, Zero opted to use Pouch cells, which are very energy dense and space efficient in a battery pack compared to round batteries where you lose a lot of space between the batteries. But these pouch cells are more expensive because they are produced less. And Zero has chosen to use the pouch cells with the highest density each year (i.e. the top model of the battery supplier, hence high prices). Pouch cells are also not the main stream package of batteries so there is no real mass production of pouch cells compared to the for example the round laptop or Tesla cells. So pouch cells are relatively expensive.

Using round cells like tesla in a motorcycle would greatly increase the size and weight of the battery so that is a nogo terrain for Zero (again, in my humble opinion )
Also  I think that if they ware able to make a motorcycle like the SR/F for 10 or 15 thousand, they would absolutely do it.
 
And to disappoint a lot of people wanting it :
The unicorn of an electric motorcycle with a highway range of 300 km (i.e. 40 kWh battery!), charge time of 15 minutes (i.e. 160 kW!), weighs less than 200 kg, has a 0-60 of < 3 seconds AND costs 10.000-15.000 US$/GBP/Euro's does not exist (duh) and WILL not exist for many years!   

BUT that said, try a Zero, buy a Zero and enjoy the ride !
I know I did yesterday for 280 km riding 2 up through beautiful sceneries (we are fortunately still allowed to go outside, as long as we keep distance to other people), charged at only 1 stop for 50 minutes, which cost 3 euros and had an absolute blast the whole day.

There are other things:
+ Moore's law. "Number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years, though the cost of computers is halved." That should give Zero some reduction on prices of other components.
+ Design costs. Most of the bikes in the Zero product line have been on the market for years so large part of the design costs should be recouped.
+ Tooling. Same there, most of the tooling costs should be recouped.
- Lot of manual labour.

US manufacturers usually price their products at the highest amount that the market is willing to pay. Cost of manufacture does rarely factor much in the price tag.
I was expecting the Kymco RevoNEX to arrive in the fall. Covid will probably delay that somewhat but if/when it arrives we might see price drop from Zero.