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[bergercurtis]

I want to believe!!! 

Me too, long term manufacturing costs should be less than fine tolerance ICE bikes. Just seems it'll take some time and scale to get there.

[wavelet]

I calculate ~$7K for battery and motor + controller in volume assuming they use canned cells.

Now plus Ohlins, Brembo, carbon fiber, swingarm, frame, fairings... R&D, staff and two facilities paid for, assembled and QA tested ready to warranty made in small quantities- that's a hell of a deal at $20k. Almost like a backwards early adoption (I dream for XRP) cost.

In the only article that gave any details, around the time of the original PR, Lightning said they're using pouch cells -- and those don't have standard designs.

Homologation also costs a lot of money.

They claimed in at least one interview/article that they can offer the low price for the Strike due to integrated manufacturing in China... But they also announced buying a manufacturing/assembly facility in San Jose, so which is it?
Integrated manufacturing only makes sense for high volumes... But the Strike doesn't have ABS, so they won't be allowed to sell it in Europe, which is half the market.

And they haven't said anything about how they'll handle  sales / demo rides / service / warranty work / service training.

And there have been no sightings of prototypes testing anywhere -- surely, as they were supposed to start deliveries this month, they'd have had multiple near-production bikes undergoing stress, reliability and safety tests?

[Richard230]

And I keep wondering how the recent U.S. tariffs of 25% on products imported from China will impact the Strike's price.   

Of course I have wondered the same thing about the components that Zero imports from Chinese suppliers and so far the tariffs don't seem to have any noticeable impact on the price of the SR/F.   

[Bill822]

... so far the tariffs don't seem to have any noticeable impact on the price of the SR/F.   

Tariffs on Chinese components and raw material started over a year ago on everything from raw metal to the plastics used for wire insulation to fairings, paint coloring agents, connectors, controllers... hundreds of items. These taxes have mostly been absorbed by manufacturers and their suppliers, but prices to consumers are rising. The earlier 10-15% tariffs are certainly already priced in to the SR/F price everyone complains about and are likely a huge deal for Lightning.

The public are only noticing tariffs now because until now tariff tax was only added to components used by American manufacturers, not consumer goods. Everybody complains about the price of the SR/F and every Chinese sourced component on it had a 10-15% tax paid by Zero. This is all before the 25% tariff.

[Richard230]

... so far the tariffs don't seem to have any noticeable impact on the price of the SR/F.   

Tariffs on Chinese components and raw material started over a year ago on everything from raw metal to the plastics used for wire insulation to fairings, paint coloring agents, connectors, controllers... hundreds of items. These taxes have mostly been absorbed by manufacturers and their suppliers, but prices to consumers are rising. The earlier 10-15% tariffs are certainly already priced in to the SR/F price everyone complains about and are likely a huge deal for Lightning.

The public are only noticing tariffs now because until now tariff tax was only added to components used by American manufacturers, not consumer goods. Everybody complains about the price of the SR/F and every Chinese sourced component on it had a 10-15% tax paid by Zero. This is all before the 25% tariff.

Ouch!   

[Bill822]

...
Ouch!   

Yep. Tariffs are a tax paid by us.

"Polaris CEO Scott Wine has been among the more vocal critics of the back and forth retaliatory tariffs between the United States and other countries and he returned to that theme in the conference call on the company's results.

'Tariffs remain the single largest contributor to our lower earnings, but the aggressive and innovative mitigation efforts we are implementing reduced our impact,' Wine said.

From Revzilla's Common Tread blog
https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/sales-keep-declining-for-us-motorcycle-manufacturers-but-turnaround-plans-are-in-place?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=07/27/2019_CT&utm_term=Common%20Tread%20%7C%20Combined

[Richard230]

...
Ouch!   

Yep. Tariffs are a tax paid by us.

"Polaris CEO Scott Wine has been among the more vocal critics of the back and forth retaliatory tariffs between the United States and other countries and he returned to that theme in the conference call on the company's results.

'Tariffs remain the single largest contributor to our lower earnings, but the aggressive and innovative mitigation efforts we are implementing reduced our impact,' Wine said.

From Revzilla's Common Tread blog
https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/sales-keep-declining-for-us-motorcycle-manufacturers-but-turnaround-plans-are-in-place?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=07/27/2019_CT&utm_term=Common%20Tread%20%7C%20Combined

It makes you wonder what the long-term impacts the tariffs will have on the industries of the countries affected by them? I imagine nothing good.     There are going to be winners and losers in this game and my guess is that countries that do not have tariffs are going to end up being the winners. 

[wavelet]

...
Ouch!   

Yep. Tariffs are a tax paid by us.

"Polaris CEO Scott Wine has been among the more vocal critics of the back and forth retaliatory tariffs between the United States and other countries and he returned to that theme in the conference call on the company's results.

'Tariffs remain the single largest contributor to our lower earnings, but the aggressive and innovative mitigation efforts we are implementing reduced our impact,' Wine said.

From Revzilla's Common Tread blog
https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/sales-keep-declining-for-us-motorcycle-manufacturers-but-turnaround-plans-are-in-place?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=07/27/2019_CT&utm_term=Common%20Tread%20%7C%20Combined

It makes you wonder what the long-term impacts the tariffs will have on the industries of the countries affected by them? I imagine nothing good.     There are going to be winners and losers in this game and my guess is that countries that do not have tariffs are going to end up being the winners. 

There are already impacts. I know of people at companies in the US that buy raw steel. There have been several dozen new hires among their suppliers... but already far more than that layoffs, because US-made steel hasn't been the majority for quite a while, and there are a lot more companies using it locally to make components.

Countries like Mexico & Vietnam have already benefited quite a bit, exactly the result predicted in advance by mainstream economists (Trump doesn't have any respected ones working for him).
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-vietnam-mexico-tariffs-gain-us-china-lose-2019-5
https://www.ft.com/content/4bce1f3c-8dda-11e9-a1c1-51bf8f989972

[Bill822]

...
There are already impacts.
...

Quite true. Costs have been going up on raw materials and parts for over a year. The automotive industry, both OEMs and supply chain, has been hit especially hard. Notice that Ford is discontinuing most of its cars. Ford and GM having layoffs and plant closures. I got out of the industry last year in no small part because of the impending financial difficulties that were even then already baked in to the supply stream. Shortsighted trade policies are harming the industries they claim to be helping. Harley Davidson is in a particularly tough spot thanks to retaliatory tariffs in Europe.

Absolutely nobody is going to invest a half billion dollars to build a new large steel plant based on trade policy that can change with a tweet. It is small businesses like Zero and Lightning (and my old business) that are most at risk.