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Author Topic: EV usage study  (Read 912 times)

Richard230

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EV usage study
« on: September 06, 2016, 08:41:53 PM »

This morning I heard a radio news report which said that a university study has concluded that 87% of the drivers in the US could own an electric vehicle and it would satisfy their daily transportation needs.  If they needed to travel further, such as while on vacation or other long trip, they could just rent a car for that purpose. 

In other news: California has just passed a energy/environmental law with a goal of substantially reducing the state's carbon "footprint" (I think it was something like a 40% drop by 2030).  It was stated that not only did the plan contemplate replacing natural gas (widely used in the state) for heating and other appliance usage with electric power (good luck with that, the cost would be outrageous), it would also require the replacement of gasoline-powered vehicles with many millions of electric vehicles.  (Another case of how do you get the consumer to buy something that they don't want?)

Anyway, that seems to be the big plan. A lot of the cost is to be financed by the state's "cap and trade" pollution credits - which originally was a big money-maker for the stand and this year not so much. No mention was made of how the additional electric power is going to be generated or transported to consumers.  Right now the state's electrical system is not all that robust and when the heat is on in the Valley, electric power supplies get to be critical and additional power has to be imported from other states - including ones that generate the power by burning coal.  :o 

Politicians are great when it comes to big ideas, but not that great when it comes to how to accomplish them in a practical manner.  ::)
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2020 KTM 390 Duke, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

KrazyEd

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 10:12:40 PM »

You pose the question " How do we get people to buy something they don't want? ". Shouldn't the question be:
" How do you get people to buy something that they don't KNOW that they want? "
With the limited amount of solar that California has in place already, they are already having days that the
solar power plants are having to curtail production during some days because they are producing more
energy than is being used. As this happens more often, smog will clear, MORE sun will get through and
even more power will be produced. The power needs to be harnessed for use after dark.

http://insideenergy.org/2016/04/19/with-too-much-solar-california-looks-to-west-for-markets/

https://solarpowerrocks.com/solar-basics/3-reasons-the-sun/

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MrDude_1

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 11:43:34 PM »

You seem to have forgotten... they havent yet built an electric car that people can afford. Most electric cars are complete shit, and the ones that dont suck, cost 6 figures.

Also any commuting you do with your electric motorcycle can be covered with a bicycle.. so go ditch that, and just rent a motorcycle for that occasional longer trip.
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Doug S

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2016, 03:21:45 AM »

...the ones that dont suck, cost 6 figures.

Knock it off with that -- we get enough of it from the non-EV crowd, we don't need to be perpetuating inaccurate stereotypes from inside the community. The Tesla Model S 60 retails at around $66,000, so with a $7500 rebate, you can get one under $60,000...and here in California, we get an additional $2500. Taxes and licensing add onto that total, but they do for any vehicle. The Tesla is NOT a six-figure car, unless you want it to be.

Quote
Also any commuting you do with your electric motorcycle can be covered with a bicycle.. so go ditch that, and just rent a motorcycle for that occasional longer trip.

My daily commute is 50 miles round trip, so while that would be possible for a fit cyclist, even for a very fit rider it's a good 2-1/2 hours' worth of cycling every day. Including clothes changes and showers, it's probably a three-hour chunk out of your day or more. Possible, yes, but not reasonable for most of us.
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BrianTRice@gmail.com

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2016, 03:31:49 AM »

I'll chime in with Doug about "knock it off", adding that my commute now is 43 miles each way with a lot of winds. There's no way I'd accomplish that daily on a bicycle even with power assist, the amount of money I'm saving can be counted per day, and the fact that I don't need to deal in maintenance cycles for a chain and oil racking up miles at this pace is a welcome relief.

These vehicles do pay off over tens of thousands of miles, and plenty of people do just that. It's unfortunate that the Lithium cost dominates the sticker price, making people think the car costs X and should be worth X, when it's 60% of that and the rest is a battery investment on a different timescale.
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MrDude_1

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2016, 09:22:03 PM »

Knock it off with that -- we get enough of it from the non-EV crowd, we don't need to be perpetuating inaccurate stereotypes from inside the community. The Tesla Model S 60 retails at around $66,000, so with a $7500 rebate, you can get one under $60,000...and here in California, we get an additional $2500. Taxes and licensing add onto that total, but they do for any vehicle. The Tesla is NOT a six-figure car, unless you want it to be.

The S60 kinda sucks dude.
While you dont need the additional range of the larger battery teslas.. you do need the larger battery for the amperage. Thats why the performance packages only come on the larger battery cars.  When I am giving up fit, finish and reliability on my car.. I at least want it to accelerate fast.
Sure the Tesla may seem nice and you have no idea what I am talking about if you drive an appliance-car like a camry... but I am just comparing it to other 66k cars, where it doesnt match up... Ironically in the low volume world of 6 figure cars, the fit/finish issues are more common, but are tolerated because no one wants to complain about their expensive car, and they usually make up for it with something like speed or acceleration.  btw, my current Tesla S specs out to over 155k.


My daily commute is 50 miles round trip, so while that would be possible for a fit cyclist, even for a very fit rider it's a good 2-1/2 hours' worth of cycling every day. Including clothes changes and showers, it's probably a three-hour chunk out of your day or more. Possible, yes, but not reasonable for most of us.
Any argument you make about the issues of bicycling somewhere will be made by car owners complaining about motorcycles. Motorcycle gear. Helmets. Changing and showering from sweat. etc...  Thats why it makes a good example. People are lazy and coddled and cant accept any hardship they dont already have.
I used to stand out in the rain at work in my full motorcycle gear and stop co workers as they tried to run in from their car... "why are you running? you came in your car! you should be dry!"... I would be the only fully dry person in the office.   It can all be done.

but people dont want to. they dont want to change. they dont want to think ahead about rain gear...

just like they dont think ahead with their vehicle choices. They let passion, whats available, and salesmen control it instead.
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Semper Why

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2016, 03:35:20 AM »

This morning I heard a radio news report which said that a university study has concluded that 87% of the drivers in the US could own an electric vehicle and it would satisfy their daily transportation needs.  If they needed to travel further, such as while on vacation or other long trip, they could just rent a car for that purpose. 
This tracks with my experience. Most Americans buy vehicles for the edge cases. We buy huge trucks to haul the boat to the lake in May and back to the house in September... and then get stuck commuting at 18 mpg on a daily basis. We buy minivans capable of shlepping an entire kid's soccer team to practice and spend 20 minutes solo idling in it per day as we wait for our solitary child to get off the schoolbus because god forbid that kid walk a block to your doorstep. We purchase seven-series BMWs in case we need to take four coworkers to lunch in luxury, which we do... maybe once a month.

And we (and by "we", I mean "I") buy 900 lbs. cruisers with a backrest, passenger floorboards, sissy bar and hard bags large enough to carry a change of clothes for a weekend... for the two times per year the Wife is willing to put on the gear and get on the back. And the rest of the time we suck down premium gasoline as we commute to work and try to manhandle all that weight into a parking spot.  :-\

So yeah, we buy for the edge cases.

Quote from: MrDude_1
Sure the Tesla may seem nice and you have no idea what I am talking about if you drive an appliance-car like a camry... but I am just comparing it to other 66k cars, where it doesnt match up...
$60K doesn't buy as much as you think it does. A Ford King Ranch Expedition is $60K without options. You can do similar damage to a Chevrolet Suburban and the fit & finish on those is somewhere south of terrible. A quick glance at what a $60K Tesla will get you, I'm seeing autopilot, GPS, auto folding mirrors, etc. A lot of stuff that I don't find in Mercedes at that price.

There's more here than just price & if the seams are straight.
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BrianTRice@gmail.com

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 03:44:17 AM »

Regular Car Reviews (weird but I think brilliant car reviewer with a Master's degree in English lit) had a couple of great episodes that I think speak to electric motorcycle branding and EVs if you squint hard enough:

Honda S2000, where he goes on at length about the idea of "potential":

Buell Ulysses, where he riffs on Buell as an American motorcycle that doesn't "wave the flag" (say where it's from):

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BrianTRice@gmail.com

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 03:49:17 AM »

I will agree that the Tesla from what I've been able to gather does not corner well and of course doesn't compare well with (well-made) cars with the same list price and 0-60 time. It's just that the list price mostly reflects battery costs which are probably best re-classified under total cost of ownership in the long-term; we just don't live in that commercial accounting world yet.
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Doug S

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Re: EV usage study
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2016, 06:36:00 AM »

Dude, I don't fucking care what you drive, and I don't fucking care what you think about what I drive. That has no bearing on the relative importance or validity of our opinions.

(For the record, I've driven a BMW 528i for years and just took delivery on a 2016 hybrid RAV4. So no econo-junkers here....again, not that that makes my opinions more valuable than somebody who makes different vehicle-buying decisions than I've made. They're just vehicles, and many different opinions are possible and legitimate.)

You made a blanket, absolute statement (which you seem to love to do), I disagreed with you, and you got all pissy about it, trying to prove you're better than me and your opinion is more important than mine. Why can't you just express your opinion and let people agree or disagree as they will, like most of the people on this forum do? You seem to have an extreme need to be the ultimate authority about everything, and it's getting old. You're a bright guy, you've got nothing to prove to any of us, why not just be one of many smart people in the room without feeling the need to prove you're always the absolute smartest? There's only one smartest person in any given room, and generally, you're not gonna be it.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 06:38:28 AM by Doug S »
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