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[MostlyBonkers]

Please bear with me here, I do get to make my point eventually, which I hope is still relevant to this forum...

I recently hired a VW Passat Estate for a week's trip to Yorkshire with my family. I know the current crop of turbo diesels are very economical but I was staggered to find that after travelling 250 miles I still had well over half a tank of fuel left. In total I drove 628 miles and I would have managed that without filling up once, if I hadn't chickened out and put a tenner's worth in before the trip home...

With that kind of range it occurred to me that for the majority of car owners (in the UK at least), a full tank is more than adequate for a month's worth of motoring. Another leap of intuition lead me to the realisation that putting fuel in a car is now like paying a monthly utility bill; wait until just after pay day and go and fill up the car and you won't have to worry about it until you've been paid again. You also get a clear and convenient way of seeing how much you spend on fuel each month. That's really quite appealing for many people on the wage slave treadmill. Alternatively, just enjoy not having to fill up very often. If you only do about 6,000 miles a year like thousands or even millions that commute to work by train, you might only need to fill up about 8 times a year!

So you've got this vehicle to hand that you just jump in and drive without having to think about filling it up. It's another big hit on the convenience scale and we all like that. When faced with an errand to run, won't many of us just jump in the car?

Do you remember how convenient you found it when mobile phones got to the point where they would last a week on standby? That was before smartphones became mainstream and we all need to make sure we plug them in on our bedside tablets at night, or we'll be in a spot of bother the next day. We're conscious of how much charge we've got remaining and have to keep a charger at work and in the car, so we can top up and reduce the anxiety around a battery meter that nosedives every time you use the device. How many of us have set it to show the percentage remaining so we know exactly how much charge is left and how quickly we're using it up?

I draw that analogy because it seems remarkably similar to Benswing's experience riding around and constantly on the lookout for the next place he can top up. He's gone to great lengths to setup two quick chargers and a special plug so he can plug into electrical outlets at RV parks and the like.

We've got used to plugging our phones in at night and no doubt we won't mind plugging our EVs in when we stop for the day. Cars have raised the bar even further though. Who's going to drive more than 700 miles in a day? Show me a capable smartphone that will last a day under heavy use. Now show me an electric motorcycle that will take you 350 miles on a fast road in a day. Not one of Ben's 14 hour days but in the 8 hours of riding and breaks that you could reasonably expect to achieve that distance on an ICE bike.

I'm going to test ride a 2014 Honda NC705X this afternoon. Honda has woken up to the attraction of decent range and fuel economy. The 14 litre tank will give you a comfortable range of 200 miles, more on long trips. It also has a dual clutch transmission which I'm very interested in, ABS as standard and some useful storage space.  I'm looking forward to comparing it to my experience riding a Zero 2012 DS a few weeks ago.


I think we need to see the following:

1: At least 250 miles range at highway speeds.
2: Fast charging onboard, compatible with all major standards and currents available. The net result being getting a 200 mile range top up in an hour or less. Without severely affecting battery life cycle.
3: Little or no price premium over ICE bikes with comparable component quality, braking, handling etc.


How confident do you all feel that an electric bike will be able to reach these basic minimums anytime soon? They're what we need to reach a tipping point IMHO.

Ben, if you're reading this I hope you don't take any objection to me using you as an example. I have great respect for your achievements with your bike and I hope I haven't come across as being critical towards you in any way.

[Mike Werner]

Battery technology is doubling every 2-3 years (which is why I am leasing the BMW C Evolution ). In 3 years, bikes will be doing 400-450 km on one charge at the legal speed limits. 5 years ago I tested the Blade electric mx bike that could do a whopping 20 minutes. Things have changed already.

[Richard230]

My car will only travel about 200 miles on a tank, but then I only fill it up twice a year.  The rest of the time I ride my motorcycles and my Zero is now making up about half of my traveling mileage.

As far as batter improvements go, I do believe that they will continue to improve, but I am not as optimistic as Mike that major battery improvements will come very quickly.  This is because, while there are a number of promising new technologies in various labs around the world, getting them into mass production at a reasonable price and vetting their performance in the field takes a lot of time and money. 

Right now I expect that whatever Tesla decides to manufacture in their new "Gigafactories" will be the EV battery standard for some years to come.  But will those batteries be suitable for motorcycles and will motorcycle manufacturers be able to buy them from Tesla, or will all production be provided only to Tesla commercial partners? 

There certainly will be other manufacturers selling batteries, but without producing them in very large quantities, price will continue to be an issue and in the mass-production and sales of vehicles, price is everything.  And then there is the issue of the availability of raw materials.........

[protomech]

Battery technology is doubling every 2-3 years (which is why I am leasing the BMW C Evolution ). In 3 years, bikes will be doing 400-450 km on one charge at the legal speed limits. 5 years ago I tested the Blade electric mx bike that could do a whopping 20 minutes. Things have changed already.

Historically speaking, battery technology (price per capacity, capacity density per mass or volume) has been doubling about every 7-10 years. We've seen significant improvements in range from Zero recently due to installing larger batteries and overall price drops (ie 2012 $14k 340 lb Zero = 63 miles mixed riding, 2014 $15k 400 lb Zero = 93 miles mixed riding).

We'll see charge times and range/weight improve with time. But it's going to take significant time.

**

My gas car is a 2000 Honda Insight. It has a 10 gallon tank and gets 60-70 mpg. I stop more frequently to pee on a long trip than I do to refuel. I'd like to replace the 240-300 mile overnight round trips I do in the car with the bike, but the car can do a couple of those trips before having to refuel. In general the extra range over my previous car (350-400 miles) is interesting but not something I'd pay much for.

Batteries are likely to be precious for a long time, both in terms of cost and size. And gas bikes have shown that 150-250 miles of range is sufficient, provided refueling is convenient. Think about how easy it'd be to make a gas bike with 500 miles of range; no manufacturer builds a bike like this because there's no consumer demand because the existing range and charging options are convenient enough.

Consider this mapping between range and refuel time. Vehicle positions are rounded to the nearest power of 2, so take them with a grain of salt.



**

Ignore the technology for a moment, and let's just focus on bikes and cost preferences.

First, assume it's a Zero S-type bike weighing 400 pounds for 80 miles, 500 pounds for 160 miles, 600 pounds for 320 miles.

1. Assume for each refuel time that it is the best commonly available.
2. Determine what maximum price you would accept for a bike with 80 miles of range.
3. Repeat for 160, 320 miles.

Here's my off-the-cuff preferences:

50 minutes / 10 kW: 80 miles, $16000. 160 miles, $22000 (+$6000). 320 miles, $24000 (+$2000).
25 minutes / 30 kW: 80 miles, $17000. 160 miles, $21000 (+$4000). 320 miles, $22000 (+$1000).
10 minutes / 50 kW: 80 miles, $19000. 160 miles, $20000 (+$1000). 320 miles, $20500 (+$500).

What's funny looking at them as an aggregate is that I would pay the same amount (for example) for 160 miles / 10 kW as 320 miles / 30 kW .. but that's simply an artifact of additional range being less valuable as commonly-available refueling times drop.

Here's my optimistic predictions:
2014: 6 kW AC charging common. Big fight over DC charging standards (CHAdeMO, CCS, Supercharger, China).
2016: 10 kW AC charging common. DC standards settle, but deployment spotty.
2018: DC QC deployed along common travel routes. Bikes capable of 30 kW charging.
2020: DC QC commonly available. Bikes capable of 50 kW charging.

Here's what I'd like to see by 2020:
* Gigafactory packs available to various manufacturers
* $200/kWh pack level, 200 Wh/kg pack
* 10 kWh 80 mile pack $2000, 50 kg. Available in smaller bikes like Zero FX. Probably limited to 20 kW charge.
* 20 kWh 160 mile pack $4000, 100 kg. Available in larger bikes like Zero S, Mission. Limited to 40 kW charge.
* 30 kWh 240 mile pack $6000, 150 kg. Available in very large touring bikes like H-D, Brutus V9. Limited to 60 kW charge.

[There707]

I want to throw another point in; Geography. In Canada our society is very conditioned to drive everywhere because of our weather (cold winters) and abundance of space for our small population. If I had the option to only fill up my ICE vehicle once per paycheck I would be very happy but this is not the case. I dirve/ride about 3000kms per month. This doesn't include my wife or daughter in collage. Now to be fair we pay less for gasoline or diesel here in NA than Europe (US is less expensive than Canada) which I believe helped us to create this society of taking our ICE vehicles everywhere.

Now as far as EVs go, if you own one in Canada I believe you are an early adopter for these reasons:
1. Almost impossible to find a public charging station east of Vancouver in the prairies. I guess RV campgrounds might be the exception for charging?
2. Range today allows me to commute to work at 62km one way, touring or longer outings have to be by ICE vehicles which is frequent
3. Weather I shouldn't need to elaborate

IMHO More Adoption of EV technology is key to it progressing. To use the cellular phone analogy (sorry if this isn't 100% correct), I heard that the first cell networks were created in the 70s but the majority didn't get cell phones until the 90s. By comparison where are we with EV technology... late 80s, early 90s?

[Doug S]

I think you're putting vehicles in general into far too narrow a box. I commute about 50 miles per day (almost all freeway) on my Zero SR, I plug it in when I get home, and it's ready to do it again the next day. There IS no higher convenience factor than that! It is true that I can't do a lot of joyriding on my bike; of course it's possible but I have to limit the mileage quite a bit, especially since I don't have the power tank or CHAdeMO adapter, nor do I carry quick chargers around with me. That said, I live right near the base of the San Diego east county mountains, and I've managed quite a few pleasant weekend rides, just no 200-milers.

It's ironic to me that people spend so little time REALISTICALLY evaluating their transportation needs; the great majority of us spend by far more miles commuting and running errands than anything else. Yet when we're shopping for vehicles, we seem to envision trips to the Grand Canyon, taking the kids to grandma's house, long vacations spent on the road, anything but what we use the vehicle for the great majority of time.

I'm a single guy and I have two vehicles: a 2014 Zero SR, and a 1997 BMW 528i with over 175,000 miles on the clock. I almost always ride the bike, except when the weather's bad (not often here in SD!), when I have more than one passenger to carry, when I have large things to carry, or when I need to go farther than the range of the bike can manage. I wind up putting 90-95% of my mileage on the bike, and it couldn't be working out better for me.

[Richard230]

My problem with charging stations is that, although there are quite a few charging stations in the SF Bay Area, there are none where I like to ride (in the Santa Cruz Mountains and along the Pacific Coast, away from urban areas).  So, having a big battery pack and plugging in at home works for me.

[ctrlburn]

During "not winter" - when not commuting on my Zero S 50 miles round trip -  I burn Bio-diesel in a Jetta TDI. I have just one refueling location, about 30 miles off route (Cambridge Auto - the remnants of PrairieFire a local Bio Cooperative), (I have no grease source to brew my own). I'd try to fuel every 2 weeks, because Saturdays suit my schedule, their hours and aligns with payday. I have two 5 gallon jerrycans "just in case" at home when errands or route choice stress my two week range. I have a choice between freeway and rural miles, selecting freeway all week takes less time - but any off-route weekday or weekend errands means I risk dipping into reserves to finish the 2 weeks or returning to regular diesel to get by.

With the Zero I charge every night at home for less than $1. On any day I can chose freeway with no errands, or rural route an easy 20 miles of errands or off route for that day. Weekend errands are not a detriment to the week's range. I can charge (for free) at select local gas stations (Kwik Trip) on my route if ever stranded for a few more miles, which has not happened yet. Or drop in at a relative's or another EV "safe house" if ever stranded for range, which has not happened yet. I also have the option to charge near my work destination (for free for now (thanks MG&E)), which has not happened yet - and walk a few extra blocks.

ICE vs EV, for me is resoundingly EV for commuting convenience and even weekend errands. Years of single source Bio-Diesel conditioned my driving habits and "range anxiety" to be relieved with the switch to the convenience of EV.

[MostlyBonkers]

I think we can put to bed the notion of any kind of threat from the extended ranges of modern cars.  I totally agree that people often perceive their vehicle requirements wrongly. They end up buying a big estate car when it's only required once or twice a year.

I have a feeling that most people don't want the hassle of owning more than one vehicle, so they get one to cover all requirements.  Enter the hybrid motorcycle...? It might be worthy of its own topic if that ground hasn't already been covered.

[AustinSZF8.5]

It's ironic to me that people spend so little time REALISTICALLY evaluating their transportation needs; the great majority of us spend by far more miles commuting and running errands than anything else. Yet when we're shopping for vehicles, we seem to envision trips to the Grand Canyon, taking the kids to grandma's house, long vacations spent on the road, anything but what we use the vehicle for the great majority of time.

Don't forget about towing the boat or fifth-wheel RV, Doug! Or the horses! Gotta' be able to pick up feed for the horses! Even if you don't have a boat, trailer, or horse, you might someday so you might as well get the 8mpg pickup with third row seats now so you don't have to worry about it down the road!

I think we can put to bed the notion of any kind of threat from the extended ranges of modern cars.  I totally agree that people often perceive their vehicle requirements wrongly. They end up buying a big estate car when it's only required once or twice a year.

I have a feeling that most people don't want the hassle of owning more than one vehicle, so they get one to cover all requirements.  Enter the hybrid motorcycle...? It might be worthy of its own topic if that ground hasn't already been covered.

This is where rental services make a lot of sense to me. I'm a gearhead and therefore have no moral issue with owning multiple vehicles (I'm down to 6 now and pretty proud of it), but even I'm considering substantially downsizing my fleet and relying more on others' fleets instead. This is especially so for long-distance driving. With plenty of rental services available where you can get a fully insured and questionably maintained low-mileage mid-sized car for $20-30 per day or $100 per week with unlimited mileage allowances and just give it back when you're done with it, why keep a long-range car that you're responsible to insure and maintain? Plus, you have the option to customize your vehicle for any particular trip. Only have two people and just a bit of luggage? A 40-50mpg compact sounds like the way to go. Uh oh, four of your friends want to tag along too? Mini-van it is. Want to take your motorcycles to scramble around when you get to your destination? Choose a small pickup or Transit cargo van and tell your friends to get their own damn car. Just gotta' have the RV experience? Yes, Dolores, you can rent those too. As I'm typing this, I'm talking myself into it. Anyone want to buy a 170,000 mile 2001 BMW 330ci that I just decided I have no need for?    

DX bikes are another story. There are rentals available but they're usually pretty expensive and not really worth it unless it's a fly-n-ride trip or you just want to try something new. But keeping a gas bike around for longer hauls is a much less costly proposition, even as far as real-estate is concerned. Typically, if you have space in the garage for one bike, you have space for two. Insurance is way cheaper, as is purchase price usually. My DX bike cost me a whopping $2300 two years and 17,000 miles ago.

[protomech]

Here's the last discussion we had about hybrids:
http://electricmotorcycleforum.com/boards/index.php?topic=2825.0

Piaggio offered an MP3 hybrid based on their 3 wheeled reverse trike. The hybrid was offered initially with a 125cc engine for fleet customers, but later revised with a 278cc "300" which reviewed more favorably. The normal MP3 300 is no lightweight at 467 pounds, and the hybrid system adds another 100 pounds on top.

Hybrid systems aid fuel efficiency in two primary ways:
- recover kinetic energy by braking and storing the energy in the battery pack.
- meet performance goals with a smaller engine, which should be more efficient
- (plug-in hybrids only) use an alternate energy system for part or all of some rides

The problems with a hybrid system on a bike, particularly a mild hybrid system, are the following:
- add a lot of weight, not much performance gain. it's harder to hide a hundred pounds on a bike than on a car.
- take up a lot of volume. In the case of the MP3 300, the underseat storage is used to store the battery.
- the ratio of energy lost to friction while decelerating vs energy lost to overcoming wind resistance is very different for a bike than a car. There's just not a whole lot to recover except maybe in city driving, and you need a reasonably-sized motor to get significant regen. Think about the Zero in Sport mode, then divide that regen assistance by at least 3.

It might be interesting to do an electric-first bike, like the BRD Redshift, then add a range-extending generator. The only real advantage ICE has is speed of fueling and existing infrastructure, so a modular range-extender (like BMW i3) could make a lot of sense. Needs about 7 kW for continuous 55 mph operation or 12 kW for continuous highway operation - a 75cc or 125cc generator would probably be adequate.

[MostlyBonkers]

Thanks protomech, very interesting. Personally I'm not a big fan of hybrids due many of the points made. So many vehicles are over engineered for their purposes and I love the relative simplicity of electric.

[nigezero]

Fantastic conversation guys. I did an interview with a reporter yesterday exploring almost all of these themes . The one big difference I see is where you live and how much charging infrastructure there is. Here in Aus we have virtually none, so to me big chargers on board are looking like the lightest, cheapest solution in the near term. However, this requires high power outlets which are not readily accessible (and chargers of course). Bug here's the macro factor ; our utilities are mid "death spiral"- falling demand and excess capacity. So, they love load and EVs mean load. Some I've talked to are already talking about finding ways to add chargers at their cost but it's early days. A big issue is when they are charged v when network demand is low to avoid creating a new peak issue. Solar PV has already changed the peak time in just 2 years and they are very nervous

[dkw12002]

I bought a Prius V in late January and am almost to 2,000 miles. In the meantime, I have put nearly 18,000 miles on my motorcycles since January. There is no way to justify the cost of a Prius at $31,500 if I recall (mine gets 37 mpg) or an electric car or motorcycle with gas at $3 a gallon.

I just bought a Honda CB300F. It gets 60 mpg or better. So does my Vespa 300. My FZ-07 gets 50 mpg or so. None of these are expensive bikes compared to the Zero S. The Honda was $4500 out the door. You can never get the cost of an electric bike down to anything approaching the cost of the Honda motorcycle no matter how many miles you ride. If you want to justify electric cars and motorcycles and even hybrids, you have to find another way to do it....something like performance, saving the environment, convenience, stealth, quiet, high torque, no warming up, etc. or more abstract reasons.

I like my motorcycles light, so I ride my gas bikes with a half tank of gas unless I am headed out of town, then I will fill up. Range isn't an issue because there are lots of gas stations around.

I try to justify what I pay for a motorcycle, not wanting to overpay for anything, but who needs 4 motorcycles? I wouldn't even try to justify that other than I like to look at them in my garage.