Partial success on my effort to pull info over serial. After a LOT of hunting I found the OBDII connector. It turns out it's down by the motor controller in the lowest part of the bike, behind the big rubber gasket on the left side, near the top of the compartment zip-tied to an orange bundle of cables. It's the black connector in this picture with a blue thing in the back; the pins are covered by a black plastic cover.
Most of the pins are missing.
It seems to match the connection outlined in
https://zeromanual.com/wiki/2016_X-Platform_Wiring_Diagram, though its location is totally different from 2016.
I used an ESP32C3 devkit running
https://github.com/AlphaLima/ESP32-Serial-Bridge to talk to the mainboard, and connected to the devkit over wifi from my laptop using netcat. I had to change the baud rate to 38400 and choose a pair of pins my devkit actually exposed in the config file. I also used the -C switch for netcat to get the newline character right; I don't know if the default works or not. That said, it was relatively straightforward. The MBB seems to be on and communicating when the bike is charging or keyed on. I'm able to get the display and actual SOC, as well as a ton of other stats I don't currently have much interest in.
The problem I'm facing right now is that there's no power on that OBDII connector, so I had to power this setup off my laptop. That makes this useless for wirelessly monitoring the charging. I think I'll buy the appropriate connector and make a cable to get 12V off the Sumitomo plug under the seat. I haven't confirmed this but I've read that the ground of the MBB and ground of the Sumitomo aren't the same, so I may need to use an isolated DC-DC supply. I also don't know if the Sumitomo will be powered when the bike is charging, so I may need to throw in a battery.
I've heard rumors of a second OBDII plug with an always-on 12V connection to satisfy EU regulations, but haven't seen hide nor hair of it... anyone know if it's real?
I've also been thinking about packet sniffing the bluetooth connection between bike and phone so I can have a computer emulate a phone and get data over bluetooth, but I honestly think that'll be more difficult and less rewarding than getting the serial connection. But, maybe in the distant future...