Well, Energica so far seems to be doing fairly well and they are not exactly billionaires.
Of course there is Rivian too, but they were spoon fed megabucks by amazon so don't really apply to your rule.
Those who come in with an open mind, and a SOLID business model, and understanding of business, have a good chance.
The whole E vehicle thing, is still fairly new, and E Motorcycles VERY new, so yes, first on the block CAN count for a lot IF it works. I think another thing that killed a lot of companies is putting out a product too fast and then being eaten alive by recalls and repairs, and the subsequent damage to your reputation, which when it's THAT severe, is almost impossible to get out from under.
another problem and it isn't really fair to ANY startup really is that, the world is going to shit real fast here and about to collapse economically. People don't have money anymore and those who do, are holding it very close to their vest, they are afraid of what tomorrow is bringing and don't want to spend on what many consider at this point to be toys. If the economy was going good, these companies would have had a lot better run out of the gate than they do now when people are not buying even when the product is good!
It'll be interesting to see what the landscape looks like Ebike wise in 2 to 3 years. Hell, we'll probably have a global EMP by then and all living back in the stoneage so this all will be moot.. some archive for another civilization to dig up in 1500 years.
Hey energica, can you design a bike that runs off tubes and CRT"s
It might survive!!
Aaron