ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2012 and older => Topic started by: Richard230 on September 21, 2012, 09:14:31 PM
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As you know, electric motorcycles are very useful as a utility vehicle and non-sporting transportation. Many current riders complain that they are not fast enough and too boring. That may be true at the moment, but apparently Honda thinks that slow and boring, with good efficiency is the way of the future. It looks like they are investing a lot in this future. Their new NC700 range of motorcycles only make about 48 hp and typically get 70-80 mpg. Not something that is likely to be on the cover of many motorcycle magazines performing a wheelie or stoppie, but they will get you around cheaply. Now it seems like Honda is even going further in that direction with a larger range of slow, efficient models as discussed in this story:
http://www.visordown.com/motorcycle-news-new-bikes/honda-nc700s-bigger-brothers-planned/21444.html (http://www.visordown.com/motorcycle-news-new-bikes/honda-nc700s-bigger-brothers-planned/21444.html)
If this trend takes off with customers, then there will be less resistance to the lower performance of electric motorcycles, although the purchase price will always be an issue for the economy-minded buyer. Still, it fits in with my type of riding. But I have no idea if basic two-wheel transportation is going to be the wave of the future in the U.S. and European countries. I guess time will tell.
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48 hp is enough to embarrass most cars.
I think a shift from hp/L to mpg is a good one. Particularly if it's coupled with aerodynamic improvements.
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Very interesting question. What is the motivation for someone to have a "utilitarian" motorcycle? Random thoughts:
In developing countries, a motorcycle as your only vehicle is common. But the motivation is poverty. They would all buy a car if they could.
In densely populated/high traffic areas, a motorcycle is easy to park and easy to get through traffic. So you'll see a lot of them in Paris, for example.
There are ~25 riders where I work who commute on a motorcycle - but not one of them are doing it in a "utilitarian" sense. It's all about the cool, macho factor. $25,000 Harleys and custom leather jackets. Or 160HP sport bikes with flamboyant graphic helmets.
In Norway, electricity is nearly free due to all the hydro; gas is around $10/gal; and there are all kinds of government incentives for EV's. However, EV ownership is around 0.14% (highest in the world). What does it take to get people into EV's?
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What does it take to get people into EVs? A "gas crisis" like we had during the 1970's. When you can't buy gas, suddenly being transported by electricity doesn't sound all that bad. ;)
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Partly it's time and experience. Mainstream EVs are still very new - in most parts of the US they have only been available for about six months. Most people have limited experience with batteries: lead acid in vehicle starter batteries, NiMH rechargeable AAs, lithium ion batteries in laptops and cell phones. It will take years and years to demonstrate that EV batteries are significantly more durable than these, if they are (http://green.autoblog.com/2012/09/20/nissan-drivers-confirm-heat-taking-toll-on-leaf-batteries/).
Partly it's up-front costs. I think that up-front costs will significantly overwhelm range considerations as charging infrastructure rolls out and people get used to being able to recharge while out and about. Again, this may take time.
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Remember that lithium based batteries may only be an interim step to something better. Even the lithium technology itself is improving rapidly in the labs. The development work now being done with "super capacitors" looks promising. The advantage there is charging in a matter of minutes. If recharging the energy storage device only takes about as long as it takes to fill a gas tank, then recharge time will no longer be an issue.
Trikester
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Yeah, plenty enough folks at work on two wheels. But other than a 150cc scooter and my Zero, all others are Ducati's, Harley's and sport bikes. A couple insist on the noise as a life-saver, or would prefer the high perf sport bikes. But, at the mention of trying to arrange a demo day at the office, a dozen different guys became really interested. (No luck yet with the actual Demo Day, though).
+ m
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I'm going to bring the Zero to the car / bike show at work next month. It's gotten a lot of interest from people that have seen me suiting up, one guy even ran down from his office to catch me as I was walking in.
I think a good part of improving interest in EVs is moving them from something people see on the news / web to vehicles people see driving around doing everyday things. Makes the ball slowly roll from "I suppose EVs are nice and all, but who would buy one? seems too risky" to "gosh, must be working for him. wonder if it would work for me."
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You know what they used to say. "You meet the nicest people on a Honda." Maybe it is time to bring back that saying for electric motorcycles. Wearing a black leather jacket and "colors", a beer belly, a beard, a shirt saying "if you can read this the bitch fell off the back" and making a lot of unnecessary noise whenever possible, seems to be the public's vision of motorcycle riders. I think it is time that version of a motorcycle rider started changing. :)
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I don't see it happening. While a few older people might like a bike like the nc700s, younger people, not so much. They go for Ninjas that are faster, lighter, flashier. If they want utilitarian, they wear a backpack. Even I would much prefer a new Ninja 300r at 376 lbs. and 100 mph vs. the 460 lb. underpowered nc700s even if it does get a couple mpg better fuel economy. When I think utilitarian, I think scooters with all that built-in storage. When you see urban areas of Asia and Europe, scooters are the utilitarian vehicle of choice for the masses. If gas prices went sky-high, it would be scooters that would catch on mostly, I think. A 125 cc scooter works on all roads except the interstate and gets like 80 mpg and might cost $2,000. That's pretty cheap transportation. A 50cc scooter followed by a bicycle would be the only thing cheaper. For electric bikes to replace these small scooters in any meaningful way in the world, the price of gas would have to be way more than $10 a gallon. Perhaps if gas got to $50 a gallon, but then, electricity wouldn't be cheap either. We need some kind of breakthrough in battery technology for electric vehicles to compete in the forseeable future. Right now, they are mostly a novelty and rich man's toy.
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Well, I won't argue with you about that dkw12002. You make sense - as long as gasoline remains available. But it is interesting to see Honda apparently trying to steer the market in a different direction. Marketing larger versions of the NC700 sure doesn't seem like a product directed at the third world to replace their scooters and step-thus, so it is unclear to me where they intend to sell these things and to whom. ???
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While a few older people might like a bike like the nc700s, younger people, not so much. They go for Ninjas that are faster, lighter, flashier. When I think utilitarian, I think scooters with all that built-in storage. When you see urban areas of Asia and Europe, scooters are the utilitarian vehicle of choice for the masses. If gas prices went sky-high, it would be scooters that would catch on mostly, I think. A 125 cc scooter works on all roads except the interstate and gets like 80 mpg and might cost $2,000. For electric bikes to replace these small scooters in any meaningful way in the world, the price of gas would have to be way more than $10 a gallon. Perhaps if gas got to $50 a gallon, but then, electricity wouldn't be cheap either. We need some kind of breakthrough in battery technology for electric vehicles to compete in the forseeable future. Right now, they are mostly a novelty and rich man's toy.
Wow, that is a good summary. I would argue however, in the US, gas prices are not strongly tied to electric prices, only 1% of our electricity comes from oil. If there's a serious middle east war, gas could skyrocket and electricity could remain relatively constant.
Some thoughts:
Since an emoto is a "novelty and rich man's toy" then maybe Brammo will outsell Zero even though it's at a higher price because it's "faster & flashier"? Why do people buy emoto's anyway? "Green", "Low Operating Costs", or "Novelty"? Or something else?
Assume batteries get cheaper. At what price point would people prefer a SZF9 to a $2000 125cc scooter (with $3/gal gas)? With $10/gal gas?
Or is it more the charging hassle (long charge times, lack of easy charge points) that drives people to a ICE scooter and not the purchase/operating costs?
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Around here in the bay area you see a lot of BMWs with the parallel twin cylinder engine just like the Honda NC700X has/will have. I think Honda just wants in on that part of the market.
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Old topic, new article:
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21578097-motorbikes-are-now-prized-their-thrift-rather-their-glamour-hells-commuters (http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21578097-motorbikes-are-now-prized-their-thrift-rather-their-glamour-hells-commuters)
"The new popularity also points to a wider money-saving trend. In pinched times, motorbikes are valued more for their usefulness than their speedy glamour. Many of the riders on these mid-range models are commuters."
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If we ever address climate change (a BIG "if") gasoline will have to become a whole lot scarcer and more expensive (my own personal guess is that it will take $25-$30/gallon gas to cut US emissions by the necessary 80%). If that happens, companies with proven super-efficient vehicles (be they gas or electric) will have a leg up in the market.
--Karl
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Moving from gas to electric isn't necessarily a cure-all for emissions. Comparing a 50 mpg Prius (the most efficient closed-loop gas vehicle) to a Nissan Leaf (the most popular pure plug-in electric), in about half of the states the Leaf is responsible for more CO2.
Fortunately, most of the states where EVs are popular have relatively low-carbon electricity.
I think $6-8/gallon gas will be a big tipping point for EV adoption. There are numerous self-limiting factors on the price of gas/oil: as long-term price goes up, people drive slightly less and purchase more efficient cars, so demand dips slightly and has a lowering effect on the price; as long-term price goes up, more expensive means of producing oil become viable (tar sands are a great example) that boost long-term supply. The US is producing more oil now (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=A) under Obama than under Bush II, though not yet more than in the 1970s and 1980s.
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Protomech, you are correct that in many places electric cars are responsible for more CO2 than a really efficient gas car. That's one reason there is room for electric motorcycles in a carbon-limited future -- our zeros use something like 1/5 of the KWH per mile as a leaf.
Also, if there is such a thing as a zero carbon future, it is probably going to be largely electric. While we currently burn lots of coal to generate electricity, at least we have existing renewable technologies (solar and wind) that at least theoretically can cover our energy needs. There is a recent study out of Stanford that even a cold, not-so sunny or windy state like NY could achieve 100% renewable energy by 2030 if it developed all the wind and solar potential in the state.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/march/new-york-energy-031213.html (http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/march/new-york-energy-031213.html)
This study assumes that all vehicles sold in NY would have to be electric, starting sometime around 2020.
I am not saying I think we are going to get there. But IF we do, its going to be a largely electric future, with liquid fuels reserved for long haul freight transport, not for personal transportation.
--Karl
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Yes, I think that motorcycles will become more utilitarian than in the recent past.
Motorcycles in the US have gotten to be either track focused or cruiser focused at the expense of utilitarian uses like commuting or running errands. Most people own motorcycles just for weekend toys.
I have seen that change recently with more people interested in riding to work and saving money on basic transportation.
While I don't think motorcycles will all turn into ugly scooter trunks, I do think that motorcycles that offer a lot of value and utilitarian use are selling well and that means the industry will probably offer more like them in the future.
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I have one point in Germany I don't know how it is somewhere.
The cost of a driving license became extremely high. I know some of the youths don't make one because they don't want to spent the money. A motorcycle license double it. 29 Years ago when I did my first license it was prevalent to do both even if lots never used to ride a bike.
So lots tell me it would be nice to use a motorcycle or scooter, but the have no license.
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Yes, I think that motorcycles will become more utilitarian than in the recent past.
Motorcycles in the US have gotten to be either track focused or cruiser focused at the expense of utilitarian uses like commuting or running errands. Most people own motorcycles just for weekend toys.
I have seen that change recently with more people interested in riding to work and saving money on basic transportation.
While I don't think motorcycles will all turn into ugly scooter trunks, I do think that motorcycles that offer a lot of value and utilitarian use are selling well and that means the industry will probably offer more like them in the future.
That seems to be what Honda thinks. All of their new 2013/14 models seem to be aimed at the utilitarian and low-budget market. Time will tell, but Honda is usually right - in the long run.
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I would like to know how many Yamaha TW200's have been sold over the many years of production of essentially an unchanged design? It is a good utility bike, low enough for short people and can hold its own in the dirt. However, I'm sure that many of them never get off the pavement and are used to get to work and getting around town. The wide tires give it excellent stability and traction.
Trikester