Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[GaryArt1]

So I was reading a Forbes article that was an interview of Zero’s CEO Sam Paschel and here are some interesting things I got out of it:

Paschel:  We sell between 2,000 and 10,000 motorcycles per year. We're cranking our SR/Fs on two shifts and have the capacity to build 10,000 of those on their own in a given year.

So i know this is a HUGE range but it gives us an estimate on Zero sales.  I have seen some article say they sell 750 bikes a year.  Also good to see they are really working on getting out the SR/Fs.  Especially if this quote is true:

Paschel: We've been very lucky in that we've been following the EV curve and not the motorcycle curve. Last year, there was only one month where we didn't set wholesale and retail records for the business. I believe our largest challenge now will be: Can we keep up with demand? The response to the SR/F has been overwhelming. Our challenge is how we can ramp in the face of an exponential growth curve.

So it seems Zero is doing pretty well and the SR/F may be their biggest hit yet if we are to believe what we read.   

[flattetyre]

He can basically say whatever he wants. There's no reason (or incentive) for him to tell the truth about any of that stuff.

My opinion is the numbers sound high.

[pacificcricket]

Most importantly, they might now totally hang the S/DS platform owners to dry. Support / service has been spotty for years now, trying to go after another piece of the pie doesn't promise any improvement, quite the opposite.

[BrianTRice@gmail.com]

The CEO's job is to exude confidence, so yes take it with a grain of salt, etc.

What I can confirm so far:
- The serial numbers on the bikes reveal a basic estimate of production levels, which are above 2000 per year.
- I've seen the SR/F in person and examined the owners manual. It looks more serviceable.
- The bike shields HV components better from rain and road debris.
- The systems design on the SR/F looks more robust against component faults.
- I think when something on it fails, you'll get an informative message, and the bike will remain rideable in many more conditions, or at least able to produce diagnostics and keep the lights on.
- More parts of it seem expressly designed for troubleshooting isolation techniques and for separable replacement.

I think the engineering team did a good job here. I would like to see some of these improvements (like dropping the Calex model for the newer 3kW chargers) retrofitted to the SDS and XMX platforms for everyone's benefit and I'll try to speak up for that.

[domingo3]

Projected sales of 2000 bikes for 2019 is reasonable, but maybe slightly optimistic based on https://electricmotorcycleforum.com/boards/index.php?topic=8855.0.  He could have also said they sell between 2000 and ten billion bikes per year.  There's no good reason I can think of to make the bottom bound of the range any lower than necessary.  10,000 SR/Fs sounds completely theoretical.  Maybe it makes a good quote, but I don't see 10,000 electric motorcycles from all makes and models being sold.

SR/F sounds like a great bike, but I think the S/DS platform will continue to be the biggest sellers.  I believe it would be a big mistake for Zero to treat S/DS the way they did the 2012 and earlier models.  Time will tell.

[GaryArt1]

Projected sales of 2000 bikes for 2019 is reasonable, but maybe slightly optimistic based on https://electricmotorcycleforum.com/boards/index.php?topic=8855.0.  He could have also said they sell between 2000 and ten billion bikes per year.  There's no good reason I can think of to make the bottom bound of the range any lower than necessary.  10,000 SR/Fs sounds completely theoretical.  Maybe it makes a good quote, but I don't see 10,000 electric motorcycles from all makes and models being sold.

SR/F sounds like a great bike, but I think the S/DS platform will continue to be the biggest sellers.  I believe it would be a big mistake for Zero to treat S/DS the way they did the 2012 and earlier models.  Time will tell.

Yes, I guess he could say whatever he wants.  Being Zero is not a publicly traded company, we will never really know for sure.  Then again I guess we can think that about most CEOs and politicians these days.  I think using the serial numbers is probably the closest approximation we could get.  At least talking with my dealer, sales keep going up each year.  I think this year will be a good year for them between the SR/F and their big presence at the motorcycle shows. 

I can see the DS/FX still doing well in 2019.  They are very different riding bikes.  They may lose a few sales from the people who are waiting to see if some of the SR/F improvements trickle down next model year to the other lines.  If I wanted a DSR, I would have a tough choice whether to wait until next year.

I do believe the SR sales will be hit hard.  Not sure why they even came out with 2019 SR model.  The price is so close between the SR and the SR/F.  I can a still see people buying the S if they really don’t care about the improvements and want to save some money but I can’t see anyone going for a SR right now over the SR/F.   I can also see some of the people considering the SR/F jumping ship to the Lightning Strike.  I think the Strike offers great value balanced by great risk in the company. 

[Moto7575]

Very interesting article. But there is an even more interesting quote at the end of the same article :

Journalist : Can you tell us about your long term view on Zero ?
Paschel : Well to be fair electricity is just a transition toward more efficient solutions.
Journalist : What do you mean ?
Paschel : In the really long term, hydrogen and compressed air offer the highest energy density, because with electricity you lose lots of energy turning coal or oil into electricity. This is why we are working on a new SR/G, based on compressed air technology. It will have a very low weight (300 lbs) because it will use an helium ballast, and the prototype already offers an impress 300 ftlb torque. We think that in the long term, governments will develop compressed air stations. in the short term, you can charge the SR/G at home in about 8 hours using a hand pump. Get out of the way, the new Zero is coming !

[Doug S]

Very interesting article. But there is an even more interesting quote at the end of the same article :

Journalist : Can you tell us about your long term view on Zero ?
Paschel : Well to be fair electricity is just a transition toward more efficient solutions.
Journalist : What do you mean ?
Paschel : In the really long term, hydrogen and compressed air offer the highest energy density, because with electricity you lose lots of energy turning coal or oil into electricity. This is why we are working on a new SR/G, based on compressed air technology. It will have a very low weight (300 lbs) because it will use an helium ballast, and the prototype already offers an impress 300 ftlb torque. We think that in the long term, governments will develop compressed air stations. in the short term, you can charge the SR/G at home in about 8 hours using a hand pump. Get out of the way, the new Zero is coming !

Um....April fool's I hope?

[GaryArt1]

Well in that case, how about methane powered bikes.  Running low on fuel, stop at a Spanish Restaurant for some rice and beans and self power your way home.

[protomech]

Very interesting article. But there is an even more interesting quote at the end of the same article :

Journalist : Can you tell us about your long term view on Zero ?
Paschel : Well to be fair electricity is just a transition toward more efficient solutions.
Journalist : What do you mean ?
Paschel : In the really long term, hydrogen and compressed air offer the highest energy density, because with electricity you lose lots of energy turning coal or oil into electricity. This is why we are working on a new SR/G, based on compressed air technology. It will have a very low weight (300 lbs) because it will use an helium ballast, and the prototype already offers an impress 300 ftlb torque. We think that in the long term, governments will develop compressed air stations. in the short term, you can charge the SR/G at home in about 8 hours using a hand pump. Get out of the way, the new Zero is coming !

Nice job. I went and looked for the article, here's a link.

[Richard230]

Compressed air?  What a bunch of BS. That has been tried many times before and between the size of the air tank, the amount of energy it takes to compress the air and the lack of any amount of efficiency of a compressed air powered motor, you won't get far. They have tried compressed air powered buses before and you don't see that many rolling around, do you?    Better to just go back to steam power. Now there is a well proven technology.

[JaimeC]

Compressed air?  What a bunch of BS. That has been tried many times before and between the size of the air tank, the amount of energy it takes to compress the air and the lack of any amount of efficiency of a compressed air powered motor, you won't get far. They have tried compressed air powered buses before and you don't see that many rolling around, do you?    Better to just go back to steam power. Now there is a well proven technology.

Richard,

Did you check the date of that posting? 

[Curt]

The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.

[BrianTRice@gmail.com]

The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.

No, you see, they figured out how to produce electricity via thermionic conversion. So it’s all solid state aside from that ... molten salt.

[Moto7575]

The ugly thing : don't crash near a populated area with one of these.

The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.